Low Income vs. Crime in Philadelphia

Philadelphia, often referred to as the "City of Brotherly Love", is located in southeast Pennsylvania and has a population of 1,603,797 people as of the 2020 census (US Census Bureau, n.d.). It is a city that has had a huge impact on our nations history. The city was originally settled by Native Americans, then was later established by William Penn in the late 1600's as part of the English colonies (Onion, 2019). At an attempt to remain on good terms with the Native Americans, William Penn named the city Philadelphia, which translates to "brotherly love" in Greek (Starner, 2018). Philadelphia was where the Declaration of Independence was signed on July 4, 1776, and later the U.S. Constitution in 1787. The city served as the capital of the United States for a period of time after the Revolutionary War (Onion, 2019). Philadelphia is also important to the Criminal Justice system because it was the first city to have the idea of a paid police force (Swanson et al., 2019). Now the city is home to some great professional sports teams, a popular tourist site, and recognized for its amazing cheesesteaks.

Even though many great things have come out of the city of Philadelphia, it is not exempt from the never-ending phenonmenon of crime. Like everywhere else you go, crime occurs on a daily basis. As a result of crime, programs and policies are put in place and being revised constantly in an attempt to reduce and deter crime. However, before spending the money to pay for new programs or making huge policy changes, it is extremely import to understand why crime is occurring in the first place. There have been many studies done to try to find the root cause of crime. Education level, drug use, economic status, race, and family structure have all been studied as factors of why crime may be committed.

In this study, we will examine how the factor of economic status correlates to crime. More specifically we will answer the question: Does the spatial distribution of low-income neighborhoods in the city of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania correlate to the spatial distribution of property crimes and violent crimes? The Uniform Crime Report breaks down crime into two categories. Property crime, or also called non-violent crime, includes arson, burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft. Violent crime includes homicide, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault (FBI, n.d.). According to the FBI (2018), a property crime occurs every 4.1 seconds, and a violent crime occurs every 24.6 seconds in the United States. The city of Philadelphia classifies property and violent crime as Part One crime, and as of 2017, there has been an increase in Part One crime. Between May 2019 and May 2020 there was a 6.1% increase in Part One crime. As Criminal Justice employees, city officials, and citizens of Philadelphia, these statistics should raise a red flag and draw the questions of: why is there an increase in crime and why are these crimes occurring in the first place?

The purpose of this research is to use point pattern spatial analysis to find evidence that supports one of these hypotheses:

NULL HYPOTHESIS: The spatial distribution of property crime and violent crime in the city of Philadelphia is spatially random in regard to the spatial distribution of low-income neighborhoods. Therefore, we need to look elsewhere to determine what contributes to patterns in crime in Philadelphia.

ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS: The spatial distribution of property crime and violent crime in the city of Philadelphia produced an observed pattern that was spatially correlated to the spatial distribution of low-income neighborhoods. Therefore, we should consider reallocating manpower, programs, and money into these neighborhoods to help deter and reduce crime.

1. Map the city boundary of the city of Philadelphia and identify neighborhoods.
2. Define what is considered low-income and identify neighborhoods that are low-income.
3. Map property crime and use spatial point pattern analysis to determine: 1) Property crimes that occurred within low-income neighborhoods vs. outside low-income neighborhoods and 2) The intensity of property crime.
4. Map violent crime and use spatial point pattern analysis to determine: 1) Violent crimes that occurred within low-income neighborhoods vs. outside low-income neighborhoods and 2) The intensity of violent crime.
5. Prepare statistical evidence that supports whether there is correlation between the spatial distribution of low-income neighborhoods and crime rates. 

We can see that half of the property crimes that were committed occurred inside the low-income area, and the other half did not. By glancing at this, it can be said that there is not much convincing evidence that proves there is a correlation between the spatial distribution of low-income neighborhoods and property crime. However, if we dig deeper, the low-income area makes up 42.96 square miles of the total 142.43 square miles of Philadelphia. That means low-income neighborhoods only take up about 30% of the total area of Philadelphia, but 50% of property crimes occurred within these neighborhoods.

Here we can see where property crimes happened more frequently than normal. The largest hotspot where crime was intensified 4 to 5 times is located outside of the low-income area. However, much of the area where crime was intensified 2 to 3 times is inside of low-income neighborhoods.

When we analyze the results of violent crime, we can see that over 73% of violent crimes occurred within the low-income neighborhoods. This means that 73% of the violent crimes occurred within an area that makes up only 30% of the total area in Philadelphia.

Here we can see where the intensity of violent crime is greater than normal. All but one of the hotspots where violent crimes were intensified by 5 existed outside of low-income neighborhoods, and a majority of the intensified area is located within low-income neighborhoods.

After overlooking and analyzing the data found, we can conclude that the spatial distribution of crime in Philadelphia, in regard to low-income neighborhoods, is not random. There is a slight correlation between property crime and low-income neighborhoods, and there is a much stronger correlation between violent crime and low-income neighborhoods. When analyzing the correlation between property crime and low-income neighborhoods we could possibly assume that the correlation is not as strong because it makes less sense to steal from other low-income individuals rather than stealing from neighborhoods or individuals that are better off. More research and studies can be conducted to determine the cause of the correlations between both property and violent crimes and low-income. However, when answering the research question: Does the spatial distribution of low-income neighborhoods in the city of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania correlate to the spatial distribution of property crimes and violent crimes?, we can accept the alternative hypothesis. There is correlation between the spatial distribution of low-income neighborhoods and the spatial distribution of property crimes and violent crimes. Therefore, the city of Philadelphia should consider taking better steps to deter and reduce crime in these low-income areas.

When starting this capstone, I used the wrong spatial reference system, so I had to go back and make sure they were all correct. It also took a while to determine what was considered low-income. Understanding poverty and low-income can be tricky. Overall, I think this capstone went very well for me. I was able to take what I have learned in all three of the GIS courses and actually apply it to something I am interested in. The labs we did over the course of this class were very helpful. I gained a lot of confidence, not only in my ability to use GIS software, but also in my ability to better understand GIS concepts. I also enjoyed taking what I have learned about in my Criminal Justice major and combining it with GIS.

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