U.S. Virgin Islands Community Vulnerability Assessment

Communities in the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) experience flooding, storms, and other climate-driven hazards. Impacts from these events are felt differently across the territory, and some communities feel these impacts disproportionately. Through the  Community Risk Assessment Portfolio , the  National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS)  collaborated with local partners to assess community climate risk in the USVI.

Since the territory is often excluded from national tools that screen for vulnerable populations, these islands are at an increased disadvantage. Vulnerability, hazard, and risk indices that provide information at local resolutions can better inform climate adaptation and decision making.

This USVI community vulnerability assessment focused on demographic analysis, structural vulnerability and exposure, flood hazard, vegetation, waterborne toxins and contaminants, and potential walkability. We developed indicators for each of these components for all populated estates within the territory. The team gave each estate an index score from low to high for each component and then layered the component maps to identify areas of higher and lower risk.

U.S. Virgin Islands communities are at risk, overall, but some estates are at a higher risk than others. Some of the territory's most vulnerable populations have an increased risk of waterborne toxin and contaminant exposure, flooding, and more vulnerable housing. For example, Estate Bovoni on St. Thomas has a higher likelihood of vulnerable populations and more critical infrastructure. In addition, the estate has a higher risk of waterborne toxin and contaminant exposure and compounded flooding.

Many of the territory's industrial and waste management sites, including the landfills on St. Thomas and St. Croix and St. Croix's oil refinery, are in coastal areas at risk of flooding. If toxins and contaminants from these sites are released by flood waters, they put nearby vulnerable communities at increased risk, as well as communities and ecosystems downstream. Adjacent communities should exercise increased caution when flood events occur.

Much of the territory's critical infrastructure is in areas of high flood risk and also overlaps with areas of increased structural vulnerability, including around Charlotte Amalie, Frederiksted, and Christiansted. Since the majority of critical infrastructure services not only nearby areas but often its entire island, damage or loss of this infrastructure can have devastating effects on the territory.

Despite these risks, it is not too late for preparation and action. This assessment's maps and data can be used by local governments, natural resource managers, community planners, and other partners to establish adaptation priority areas related to flood hazard, contaminants, and community use. The identified areas can then be further investigated alongside other local datasets to inform project planning for climate adaptation action. Ideal projects depend on specific needs and technical guidance, but might include efforts to:

This research would not have been possible without local partners. Our collaboration with the  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Region 2 ,  University of the Virgin Islands , and the  U.S. Virgin Islands Department of Planning and Natural Resources  was critical to initiating this community vulnerability assessment. Further partnership with the Divisions of Coastal Zone Management, Fish and Wildlife, and Territorial Parks and Protected Areas within the  Virgin Islands Department of Planning and Natural Resources , the  Virgin Islands Lieutenant Governor’s Office , and the  Virgin Islands National Park Service  refined the assessment's goals and products. Further feedback, expertise, and support was provided by the  U.S. Fish and Wildlife ,  U.S. Geological Survey ,  National Sea Grant Program ,  Caribbean Integrated Ocean Observing System ,  Coral Reef Watch , and NOAA’s  Office for Coastal Management ,  National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science ,  Coral Reef Conservation Program ,  Southeast Fisheries Science Center , and  Southeast Regional Office .

This USVI community vulnerability assessment developed indicators of vulnerability, exposure, and hazard, and intersected them spatially to produce maps of risk and co-occurrence. At NCCOS, we use the following definitions:

NCCOS has developed a transferable and integrated community vulnerability assessment framework to examine socioeconomic, structural, and geographic vulnerability in relation to coastal hazards. Our framework uses the best available existing datasets from local and national sources in addition to partner feedback. Each assessment directly engages local partners and stakeholders at strategic points in the research process to support assessment outcomes that are regionally relevant for effective planning.

Building upon territory needs, existing research, partner and stakeholder feedback, and data feasibility checks, we identified and integrated measures of social vulnerability, structural vulnerability and exposure, flood hazard, vegetation, waterborne toxins and contaminants, and potential walkability.

We then assessed risk and co-occurrence by intersecting selected assessment components through bivariate choropleth mapping. This mapping technique is able to show two indices at once and each color shows one of nine possible combinations. Areas of dark blue score high in both components and therefore have the highest risk, whereas areas of gray score low in both and have relatively lower risk. Bright pink and teal areas score high in one component but lower in the other.

These maps can help prioritize actions and aid in decision making when considering particular aspects of vulnerability, exposure, hazard, and risk.

This Community Vulnerability Assessment strives to close gaps in USVI vulnerability research to support future and near-term planning efforts related to climate action and adaptation.

Assessment maps and data can be used by local governments, natural resource managers, community planners, and other partners to establish adaptation priority areas related to flood hazard, contaminants, and community use. Alongside other local datasets and technical expertise, the identified areas can then be further investigated for siting decisions and project planning.

This assessment supports existing local research and climate action planning in the USVI. Each map suggests priority areas for unique action items and next steps. Areas of repeated co-occurrence not only stress the need for adaptation action, but also present an opportunity to develop and implement innovative strategies that mitigate multiple concerns at once. This assessment provides additional tools for USVI communities to better protect, advance, and manage climate change impacts.

The application of the this framework and its results are designed to be used both as final products, but also as foundational pieces for additional research, analysis, and refined adaptation action. Ultimately, the design of the framework continues to provide a level of flexibility that can be applied to multiple geographies and contexts. This work is reliant upon the iterative involvement of local partners and stakeholders to provide meaningful information to better protect, advance, and manage climate change impacts within local communities in various coastal geographies.

Please visit our project page for the final report and more information about this research by clicking the link below.