Neighborhood Planning Prioritization
A data-informed approach to neighborhood planning prioritization
Overview of Metrics
Momentum
Neighborhood Crime Interventions
Operationalization: Count of Homicides and Aggravated Assaults by Neighborhood, 2018.
Source: St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department.
In December of 2015, the City of St. Louis released a PIER Plan which is based on a strategy published in 2007 by the International Association of Chiefs of Police in State Association of Chiefs of Police. The model strategy is intended to address Prevention, Intervention, Enforcement, and Reentry, and the City of St. Louis identified 15 focus neighborhoods which experience high levels of homicides and aggravated assaults. Additionally, the City has funded and launched a program called "Cure Violence" which uses much of the same data in a data-informed approach, to identify neighborhoods where intervention is prioritized.
Research has shown that the built environment has a strong correlation with levels of crime. Various strategies, including Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design (CPTED), over time have been developed to provide guidance on better design of our streets, buildings, and open spaces in ways that improve livability; provide social, cultural, economic and environmental benefits; and deter opportunities for crime and make people feel safe. By prioritizing areas that have seen intervention, or are prime for intervention through the PIER Plan effort or the Cure Violence Program, we can build on this momentum and allow the PIER plan and Cure Violence Program efforts to inform and guide recommendations for how the City’s implementation tool box can be better aligned to address issues of crime in the respective neighborhoods.
Neighborhood Revitalization Strategy Areas
Operationalization: The percentage area within neighborhoods covered by a Neighborhood Revitalization Strategy Area.
Source: City of St. Louis Community Development Administration, US Department of Housing & Urban Development
Rationale: HUD-approved Neighborhood Revitalization Strategy Areas offer specific neighborhood geographies enhanced flexibility in undertaking economic development, housing, and public services activities with CDBG funds, and is designed to promote innovative programs in economically disadvantaged areas of the community. This designation has already led to the use of innovative programs in St. Louis, such as the Choice Neighborhoods program and Façade Improvement Grants, however, by prioritizing these designated neighborhoods, the City can more strategically leverage the funds available in these geographies to impact neighborhood communities with a directive from neighborhood residents, leaders, business owners, and all those engaged in the planning process.
HUD-approved Neighborhood Revitalization Strategy Areas offer specific neighborhood geographies enhanced flexibility in undertaking economic development, housing, and public services activities with CDBG funds, and is designed to promote innovative programs in economically disadvantaged areas of the community. This designation has already led to the use of innovative programs in St. Louis, such as the Choice Neighborhoods program and Façade Improvement Grants, however, by prioritizing these designated neighborhoods, the City can more strategically leverage the funds available in these geographies to impact neighborhood communities with a directive from neighborhood residents, leaders, business owners, and all those engaged in the planning process.
North-South Proposed Metrolink Alignment
Operationalization: The percentage area within a neighborhood within 1/2 mile of the proposed North-South Metrolink Alignment.
Source: Bi-State Development
The Proposed N/S Metrolink has the potential to bring significant opportunity and investment to those areas within walking distance of the proposed stations. While general Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) principles could be applied to these geographies to ensure the greatest levels of service to the greatest number of people; connecting people to jobs, schools, and other amenities will be a huge draw for investment and development and should be carefully applied in a way that improves the conditions for existing residents, businesses, and stakeholders and thus should be designed and applied with their input and guidance. While the City still has some time before we see construction phases at play, it will be important to prioritize these areas in planning phases to better position applications for additional grants and funds, as well as to ensure that planning, engineering, and implementation phases are all aligned with the immediate community vision in mind.
Momentum Score Total
This map depicts the momentum score subtotal. Neighborhoods with higher scores denote a greater need for planning surrounding issues related to neighborhood momentum.
Change
Current or Future Change in Development
Operationalization: The absolute value of the percent change in residential building permits under $1,000,000 between 2015-2017 and 2018-2020
Sources: City of St. Louis Building Division
Areas that are seeing or are anticipated to see a significant change in the near future as indicated by development pressures are more likely to see development change the character of places and may invite unwanted outcomes such as displacement pressures. By prioritizing areas with relative increasing building permit data, and/or large future proposals, the City can work more quickly to give voice and power in development processes, to those that are at greatest risk of being impacted by an uptick in development pressures.
Catalytic Development
Operationalization: The total value of building permits greater than $5,000,000 (excluding auxiliary structures) and for projects that have been awarded incentives by SLDC.
Sources: St. Louis Development Corporation, City of St. Louis Building Division
Areas that are seeing or experiencing catalytic development are currently or will likely feel development pressures in turn. By prioritizing areas with potential development pressures, the City can work quickly to ensure that changes to the development of their neighborhood can be harnessed for positive impact by giving voice and power in development processes to those that are at great risk of being impacted by changes in the neighborhood.
Appreciable change in population since the 2010 Census
Operationalization: The absolute value of the percentage change in the interpolated neighborhood population total since the 2010 Census
Sources: American Community Survey 2015-'19, 2010 Census
Areas that are seeing higher levels of change in population over the last 10 years may be at risk for either changing and displacing populations within those neighborhoods or losing them entirely. By prioritizing areas that are seeing population change, the City can work with residents to stop the cycles of displacement or abandonment and work to provide or develop tools that can help serve the residents in place and guide the development of these neighborhoods in a way that is equitable and informed by the community.
Areas within the Promise Zone or Opportunity Zones
Operationalization: The percentage area within a given neighborhood that is covered by either the St. Louis Promise Zone or an Opportunity Zone.
Source: The Department of Housing and Urban Development, St. Louis Development Corporation.
The Promise Zone federal program, launched in 2013 designates high-poverty communities to increase economic activity, improve educational outcomes, reduce serious violent crime, invest in transformative development, and improve health and wellness. In St. Louis City, the Promise Zone covers the area north of Delmar Boulevard and Carr Street.
The Opportunity Zones are a federal program created as part of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 as a new tax incentive intended to help distressed urban and rural communities across the country. The geographies are identified as low-income census tracts selected by each state’s governor and confirmed by the US Department of Treasury.
By prioritizing neighborhoods that include Promise or Opportunity Zones, the City can sooner build on the effectiveness of these programs and facilitate the creation of a roadmap for the use of these tools, and ensure they are utilized in a way that prioritizes the needs and desires of their neighborhoods before they become unavailable or expire.
Change Score Subtotal
This map depicts the subtotal for the Neighborhood Change category. Neighborhoods with higher scores for the Change subcategory indicate a higher need for planning regarding issues related to neighborhood change.
Health & Mobility
Vacancy
Operationalization: The percentage of parcels that have been designated as "Definitely" or "Very Likely" vacant by the Vacancy Collaborative's Vacancy Data Working Group (December 2020).
Source: Vacancy Collaborative, Vacancy Data Working Group, Forestry Division, Assessor's Office.
As the City and its community begin to strategize around addressing the high levels of vacancy in St. Louis, residents, business owners, and local stakeholders should be the driving force behind how these vacant properties should be addressed, and/or preserved. By prioritizing neighborhood planning in these areas, the City can ensure that those neighborhoods that see the highest levels of vacancy are addressed with greater urgency and thus the momentum generated by the planning effort, the Vacancy Collaborative, the Green City Coalition, and other initiatives which are poised to provide resources can be mobilized.
Limited Supermarket Access
Operationalization: The percent area of a neighborhood that falls within a Limited Supermarket Access Block Group
Source: The Reinvestment Fund (2016)
Limited access to sources of healthy and affordable food makes it harder to eat a healthy diet, and can thus contribute to healthy disparities. Limited access areas are defined as having 45% or more of its population within a block group which are relatively farther from a full-service grocery store than block groups that have a similar population density and car ownership rate, but which have an average median income at or above 120% of the average median income (AMI) of the area. By prioritizing areas with low access to full-service grocery stores, the City can proactively work with the community to find ways to increase access to food either by attracting necessary development of stores with incentives, or filling the gaps with programs, community gardens, urban farming, co-ops, and/or mobile food options, among other alternatives, as desired by the community for the community.
Neighborhoods with relatively lower walkability, transit, & bike scores
Operationalization: The equal weight score of a given neighborhood's Walk Score, Transit Score, and Bike Score from Walk Score®
Source: Walk Score® (2021)
Walk, transit, and bike scores aim to measure the accessibility of cities and neighborhoods by foot, transit, and bike. These scores include routes to, and density of amenities within walking distance; relative usefulness of nearby routes including the distance to the nearest stop and the frequency of routes; and the bike-friendliness of a location, including bike lanes, topography, destinations, and connectivity. Each of these indicators provides a snapshot of the livability of residents within each neighborhood to meet basic needs and gain access to services without the privilege of access to a private vehicle. By prioritizing areas with relatively lower scores, the City can engage with the neighborhoods to determine their priority needs and desires to see scores improve over time, ultimately creating neighborhoods that are more accessible and equitable.
Health & Mobility Score
This map depicts the subtotal for the Health & Mobility subcategory. Neighborhoods with higher scores indicate a higher need for planning related to issues of health & mobility.
Economy
Appreciable change in wages by location of business
Operationalization: The percentage change in total wages by business location between Q1 2019 and Q1 2020
Source: Missouri Department of Higher Education and Workforce Development
Businesses are an important part of an ecosystem within neighborhoods and provide goods and services to residents at various scales. An indication of significant or appreciable change in wages may indicate that the surrounding neighborhood(s) are changing, and either declining or seeing a new influx of population. In either case, by prioritizing neighborhoods that are seeing this change, the City can dedicate resources to managing and directing that change in a way that will preserve the aspects of those areas that are most important to the community.
Appreciable change in median home sales price
Operationalization: The absolute value of the percentage change in median home sales price for valid sales greater than $10,000 by neighborhood between the periods 2015-2017 and 2018-2020
Source: City of St. Louis Assessor's Office, City of St. Louis Recorder of Deeds
While an increase in median home sale prices can be seen as a natural and positive occurrence, a healthy housing market appreciates at a natural and incremental pace. More appreciable change, positive or negative, could be signaling unhealthy change and an indication of potential displacement or a devaluation of investment and overall disinvestment of neighborhoods. By prioritizing neighborhoods that are seeing an appreciable change in median home sale prices, the City can proactively work to harness the increasing change in a way that benefits residents, or control and manage the decreasing change in a way that aims to stabilize the neighborhood for city residents.
Median Home Sales Price
Operationalization: The median home sales price by neighborhood for valid sales greater than $10,000 between the periods 2015-2017 and 2018-2020.
Sources: City of St. Louis Assessor's Office, City of St. Louis Recorder of Deeds
While the change in home sale prices can help indicate areas that are changing at a pace which may incur displacement or devaluation of investment, the Median Home Sales Price alone can help to identify areas that, the housing market alone cannot provide affordable housing, or areas where the cost of homeownership may be outweighing the benefit of investment. By prioritizing areas on either side of the spectrum, the City can work proactively to strategize and make room for a healthy mix of residents in areas where resources are plentiful, or to strategize for proactive catalytic development that can improve property values and increase resources and amenities in areas that are currently not selling at a rate that is feeding a healthy home market.
Neighborhoods with higher proportions of low or moderate-income individuals
Operationalization: The percentage of individuals considered to be low or moderate income
Source: Department of Housing and Urban Development.
Low and moderate-income residents are at a higher risk of being subjected to negative impacts of volatile market conditions, job insecurity, health disparities, displacement, and lack of access to reliable transit, quality open space, and quality food, among other inequities. By prioritizing neighborhoods with higher proportions of low or moderate-income individuals, the City can ensure that those residents that have seen disinvestment and have been subject to inequities are empowered and given the voice and opportunity to develop a roadmap to the future of their communities and future generations.
Economy Score
This map depicts the Economy score subtotal. Neighborhoods with higher scores denote a greater need for planning surrounding issues related to neighborhood economy.
Other Considerations & Context
In addition to the neighborhood-level data, it's important to note that other disparities should be considered in prioritizing neighborhood planning and understanding the context in which the neighborhoods are sitting.
Various Health Data points are important to understand where disparities exist. While Neighborhood Planning will not directly impact the outcomes of health data, it can drive various investments and decision-making to inform land use, such as health care facilities, and transit, which can impact access to health care. Programs can be developed based on needs identified, such as car share or ride programs to increase access. By prioritizing areas with indicators for health disparities, the City can more readily understand and develop solutions to aid in closing the gap.
Additionally, school closures have had a heavy impact on neighborhoods over the last several decades in St. Louis. Removing schools from neighborhoods has removed family and youth anchors -- bringing and signaling further decline and disinvestment to residents within, and developers outside of those neighborhoods. Happy and healthy places should have access to quality and necessary healthcare and education, both of which ensure the wellbeing of the people within communities. The lack of these indicates a need to develop a plan to reverse a negative cycle; planning can help tread a path toward that goal.
Finally, given that this program will allow communities to inform the prioritization of resources in their communities, American Rescue Plan Act (APRA) funds provide for additional resources to be allocated to Qualified Census Tracts (QCT), in recognition of the disproportionate impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on health outcomes in low-income and Native American Communities and the importance of mitigating these effects. By prioritizing QCTs, the City will be able to more readily deploy this funding source to people and places that have been disproportionately impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, in a way that is informed by their needs and priorities.
Health Data: Infant Mortality
The number of deaths under one year of age that occur for every 1,000 live births.
Source: Vision for Children at Risk, "Children of Metropolitan St. Louis: A Data Book for the Community" 2020, Eleventh Edition. pg 67. 5-year infant mortality rate data was obtained from the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services Missouri Information for Community Assessment Data (MICA). Calculations were made by Vision for Children at Risk.
Data Note: Data were suppressed for Missouri Zip codes with fewer than five infant deaths over the five-year period.
Per the CDC, the Infant Mortality Rate is an important marker of overall health of a society. Areas with high rates of infant mortality may have low access to healthcare, healthy spaces, and/or healthy community support among other potential factors. These data points are important to consider and understand as plans are developed in order for the community to consider recommendations for programs, or to bring in experts around these topics.
Health Data: Inadequate Prenatal Care
The percentage of babies born with inadequate prenatal care. Defined by the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services as less than five visits for pregnancies lasting less than 37 weeks, less than eight visits for pregnancies of 37 weeks or longer or care beginning after the fourth month of pregnancy.
Source: Vision for Children at Risk, "Children of Metropolitan St. Louis: A Data Book for the Community" 2020, Eleventh Edition. pg 61. Inadequate prenatal care data was obtained from the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services Missouri Information for Community Assessment Data (MICA). Calculations were made by Vision for Children at Risk.
Data Note: Data were suppressed for zip codes with fewer than five births.
Inadequate prenatal care is sometimes linked to preterm birth and low birth weights which can both lead to longer-term health issues in babies and children. Children with long-term health issues. While planning alone can't improve these rates, these data points are important to consider and understand as plans are developed in order for the community to consider recommendations for programs, or to bring in experts around these topics to discuss linkages between land use, transportation, and/or community development, among other things.
Health Data: Blood Lead Levels
Percent of children testing positive for greater than 5 micrograms blood lead levels of the total population under 72 months old.
Source: Missouri Department of Health and Human Services - Missouri Public Health Information Management System, Environmental Public Health Tracking, Blood Lead Levels. Calculations performed by the City of St. Louis Department of Health.
Data note: Please note that some zip codes have data suppressed and there are others where the calculated rate has been deemed unreliable by the Department of Health.
Lead exposure happens by coming in contact with lead by swallowing, or breathing in lead or lead dust and can cause long-term health issues such as damage to the brain and nervous system issues and developmental issues. While St. Louis boasts a wonderful historic building stock, this can also be a major contributor to these issues. These data points are important to consider and understand as plans are developed in order for the community to consider recommendations for new or targeted existing programs for mitigation and prevention.
School Closures
St. Louis Public Schools has seen years of declining enrollment. While the board voted in January to close four elementary schools, one middle school, and two high schools, there are also a number of schools that have been closed even in decades prior.
Source: Saint Louis Public Schools: Success Stories Directory, Surplus Properties, Not Actively on Market Properties; and Media Release Consolidation Plan.
Additional ARPA Funding - Qualified Census Tracts (QCTs)
HUD Qualified Census Tracts are a common, readily-accessible and geographically granular method of identifying communities with a large proportion of low-income residents.
Source: US Department of Housing and Urban Development
Low-Income Housing Tax Credit Qualified Census Tracts must have 50 percent of households with incomes below 60 percent of the Area Median Gross Income (AMGI) or have a poverty rate of 25 percent or more. The US Department of the Treasury uses the HUD-designated QCTs per the ARPA Final Rule.
By prioritizing QCTs, the City will be able to more readily deploy this source of funding and resources to people and places that have been disproportionately impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, in a way that is informed by their needs and priorities.
Capacity & Priorities
The following map on the left shows the neighborhood organizations across the City, while the map on the right identifies those neighborhoods that will be in the first round to receive resources for neighborhood planning or capacity building.
Those clusters that are of a high priority but need to develop capacity, such as through the development of an organization, will receive funding and resources prior to Neighborhood Planning.