Hurricane Dorian in The Bahamas
A story of damage, despair and perseverance
Figure 1. Elbow Reef Lighthouse (background) watches over the harbour of Hope Town, Abaco, Bahamas after Hurricane Dorian (Knowles 2019).
A Weekend to Remember
On Sunday, September 1, 2019, Hurricane Dorian slammed into the Abaco Islands in the northwestern Bahamas and permanently etched his name in Bahamian history and memory. With a maximum sustained wind speed of 185 mph, Hurricane Dorian is one of the two strongest Atlantic hurricanes to ever make landfall and the strongest hurricane on record to have hit The Bahamas since 1851 (Perper, Woodward & McFall-Johnsen 2019; Rice 2019).
A slow moving and powerful storm, over the course of three days, Dorian ravaged the islands of Abaco and Grand Bahama, carrying away homes, belongings and loved ones in severe floods. Thousands of residents from these Northwestern islands have relocated to the capital of Nassau. Hundreds are missing. And as of October 29, 2019, the death toll is 67 and rising (Ward 2019). The widespread damage and high number of casualties have made Dorian what Bahamian Prime Minister, Rt. Hon. Hubert Minnis, is calling “the greatest national crisis in [the] country’s history” (Johnson, Smith & Sheeley 2019).
A Massive Storm
At its peak, Hurricane Dorian was approximately 280 miles across, with hurricane force winds (74 mph or greater) extending up to 90 miles in diameter. For reference, with a tropical storm force wind field of up to 61,575 square miles, Hurricane Dorian was approximately the size of the U.S. state of Florida, over twice as wide as the Abaco Island chain and almost three times wider than the island of Grand Bahama (Sangalang 2019). Inching across the Northwestern Bahamas at just 1 mph, Hurricane Dorian engulfed the islands with unprecedented wind gusts and torrential downpours.
Figure 2. Satellite imagery of Hurricane Dorian on Monday, September, 2, 2019 over Grand Bahama. Captured by NOAA's GOES East. • (NOAA 2019)
Catastrophic Storm Activity
This infrared satellite image shows the storm on Monday, September 2, 2019 as it travelled west from the Abacos (left) toward Grand Bahama Island (right). The dark red spirals around the calm central eye indicate areas of intense storm activity and heavy rainfall. The bar across the top denotes the temperature in Kelvin, the base unit of temperature in the International System of Units. Because intense storms stretch higher into the atmosphere, where the temperature is colder, the lower the temperature measured by the satellite, the stronger the storm is in an area (Gutro 2015). To make the image more intuitive, the colder, more intense areas of Dorian are shown in red while the warmer, weaker edges of the storm are blue.
Figure 3. NASA NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite captured a detailed image of Dorian’s eye on Sep. 02, 2019 at 2:13 am EDT (Straka 2019).
Figure 4. CNN's Patrick Oppmann in Freeport, Grand Bahama on September 3, 2019 where rescue efforts were underway after Hurricane Dorian (CNN 2019 via YouTube).
Where did Hurricane Dorian hit?
The Commonwealth of the Bahamas is an archipelago of over 700 islands and cays located in the Northern Atlantic Ocean (Fig. 5). Nestled between Florida and Cuba, the small island nation has a population of approximately 330,000 people spread across 17 major inhabited islands (Bahamas Department of Statistics 2015).
The unique island geography of The Bahamas makes the nation especially vulnerable to hurricanes. Low-lying and surrounded by water, the islands of The Bahamas are also overwhelmingly susceptible to flooding and have difficulty coordinating relief efforts in the wake of storms (Shultz et al. 2019).
Although islands throughout the Northwestern Bahamas experienced tropical storm force winds, the brute force of Hurricane Dorian’s attack was concentrated on the islands of Abaco and Grand Bahama. With approximately 70,000 residents between them, Grand Bahama and Abaco are respectively the second and third most populated islands in the nation (Department of Statistics 2015).
Explore the map (Fig. 5) below to see Hurricane Dorian's path through the islands of The Bahamas!
Figure 5. Hurricane Dorian's track through The Bahamas. The green line highlights the storm's path. Orange dots represent the intensity of the hurricane, with larger dots signifying more intense wind speeds. The numbers (white) denote the intensity of Hurricane Dorian on the Saffir-Simpons scale (Map: Cambridge 2019 • Data Source: NHC 2019)
What are hurricanes?
Figure 6. The step by step formation of a hurricane ( Gal 2018 ).
Hurricanes like Dorian start out over warm ocean water near the equator, where the sea surface temperature is at least 26. 5ºC (80 ºF) (Shultz 2019). Many begin off the east coast of Africa when a westbound jet stream, called the African Easterly Jet blows across the Eastern Atlantic Ocean. Normally, the African Easterly Jet is strong and blows at high altitudes, but the jet is unstable and temperature variations in the region can lead to the formation of low pressure winds that move through the air as waves. Interestingly, the African Easterly Jet blows across the Atlantic Ocean approximately every two or three days, but only during the late summer and early fall months are ocean temperatures typically warm enough for hurricane formation (NOAA 2013; NOAA 2014).
When the ocean is warm enough and the westbound winds blow across the ocean, warm water particles evaporate into the air. As this water vapor rises through the atmosphere, the vapor cools, condenses, and forms storm clouds. If these storms are exposed to enough warm waters and westbound winds, they begin to spiral, forming what is known as a tropical depression. With the continued presence of warm water and favourable wind conditions, tropical depressions gain strength and eventually become tropical storms and later, hurricanes.
How has climate change affected Hurricane Dorian?
Hurricane Dorian joins the ranks of other recent Atlantic Hurricanes – like Irma, Sandy, Joaquin and Harvey – that have been linked to global climate change. While scientists have been unable to prove whether or not climate change causes an increase in the number of Atlantic hurricanes per season (Walsh et. al 2016), they have seen links between global warming, storm intensity and damages (IPCC, 2019; André 2008).
Rising sea surface temperature combines with higher storm surges (as a result of sea level rise) and increased storm stalling to produce the destructive “super-storms” that have recently plagued nations across the North Atlantic Region (Sneed 2017).
Read below to discover how climate change is making hurricanes like Dorian worse.
Increased Storm Intensity
Warm water acts as fuel for hurricanes, providing them with energy and sustenance as they grow and travel westward towards the Americas. The warmer the water, the more energy a storm can potentially possess. Therefore, as global temperatures, and subsequently, sea surface temperatures, continue to rise, hurricanes within the North Atlantic are getting stronger.
The map on the left shows Dorian as a category 4 hurricane on 30 Aug 2019. As the storm moved into the warmer Bahamian waters, Hurricane Dorian upgraded to a category 5. Remember, the minimum water temperature for hurricane formation is around 80 ºF.
Figure 7. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean on 30 Aug 2019 (Stevens and Dauphin 2019).
From 1970 onward, hurricane intensity has fluctuated in tandem with sea surface temperature (left).
Figure 8. Relationship between sea surface temperature and the intensity of North American hurricanes. Intensity is measured using a Power Dissipation Index (PDI), a scale which takes into account hurricane strength, duration and frequency (EPA 2016).
Increased Rainfall
Rising global temperatures are not only making hurricanes more intense, but also wetter. The warmer air is, the more water the atmosphere can hold, allowing for storms to potentially have higher rainfall levels (Trenberth et al. 2018).
The map on the left shows the amount of precipitation that fell in the northern Bahamas during Hurricane Dorian. Because of the storm, some areas of eastern Grand Bahama and northwestern Abaco experienced up to 36 in (914 mm) of rain.
Figure 9. NASA IMERG estimated rainfall accumulations for the region of the Bahamas affected by Hurricane Dorian from 31 Aug to 4 Sept 2019 (NASA Goddard, 2019).
Higher Storm Surges
As a result of global sea level rise, storm surges today are about eight inches higher than they would have been 100 years ago (Sweet 2017).
One of the most destructive aspects of Hurricane Dorian was the high flood levels linked to the massive king tides and higher storm surges. King tides, a common name for unusually high tides, occur seasonally, when a special alignment of the moon, sun and earth causes the highest tides of the year (U.S. Department of Commerce & National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2017). During Hurricane Dorian, storm surge combined with seasonal high tides, producing widespread inland flooding and devastation.
Figure 10. Grand Bahama on Monday, September 2, 2019. Yellow lines mark where the land was before the storm flooded the area. Areas covered in blue are inundated with water, while areas in black are exposed land. (Google Earth & Iceye 2019).
Storm Stalling
For several hours, Hurricane Dorian went stationary over Grand Bahama, unleashing fierce winds and relentless rainfall. In the image to the left, we can see that Dorian was moving at 1 mph. For comparison, the average human walks at 3 mph!
Similar stalling has been observed in other Atlantic hurricanes, like Hurricane Harvey. In fact, recent research by Hall & Kossin (2019) indicates tropical storms are moving 17% slower than they used to over 70 years ago. Why? Many experts believe that the winds that steer tropical storms are slowing down because of climate change (Kossin 2018).
One of the major drivers of global wind patterns is the need to disperse heat energy between the equator and the poles. As the Earth's average temperature rises and the poles become warmer, the temperature difference between the poles and the equator lessens and winds become weaker.
Because a slower pace means that storms have more time to lash an area with powerful wind and dump rain, as storms slow down they are becoming more destructive.
Figure 11. News report from Miami's Local 10 TV Station showing Hurricane Dorian stationary over Grand Bahama on September 2, 2019 (Norcross 2019).
A Generational Tragedy: The Impacts of Hurricane Dorian
Destruction
The Bahamian Red Cross estimates that more than 13,000 houses, approximately 45% of the residences in Grand Bahama and Abaco, were severely damaged or destroyed during the storms (Beaumont 2019).
Among those most affected were the residents of informal communities, or shanty towns, on Abaco Island. Predominantly Haitain migrants to The Bahamas, shanty town residents lived in tightly packed homes constructed mostly of plywood with unregulated electricity and water supplies (Ministry of Labour 2018). These building conditions meant that many of the homes in shanty towns across Abaco Island were shredded to pieces and hundreds of Haitiain immigrants are now homeless (Lai, Watkins, Koppel & Singhvi 2019).
The devastation in informal communities highlights one of the many ways in which natural disasters worsen already existing socio economic inequalities and disparities (Lichtveld 2019). In Southern Abaco, where the makeshift homes in local shantytowns, The Mudd and Pigeon Peas, were reduced to rubble, approximately 70% of shanty town residents were undocumented (Ministry of Labour 2018).
Figure 12. The Mudd in Abaco after Hurricane Dorian (Volpe 2019a).
Loss of Life
As of October 29, 2019 the death toll as a result of Hurricane Dorian is 67 (Ward 2019). The majority of fatalities were people who drowned in the unprecedented storm surge.
Unfortunately, officials expect that the number of fatalities will increase as clean up crews move through the islands. The Ministry of Social Services has announced that as of October 10, 2019, there were still 1,208 people unaccounted for, but only 282 official missing persons reports have been filed with local police (Rolle 2019).
Figure 13. Rescue crews recovering bodies of Hurricane Dorian Victims in Marsh Harbour, Great Abaco Island (Smialowski 2019).
Displacement
By some estimates, 70,000 people were affected by Hurricane Dorian. Ten thousand of those affected were students, who were supposed to start their first week of school when Dorian hit (Duvillier 2019). In addition to the disruption of children's education, the massive displacement from Hurricane Dorian has lasting implications on the health and well-being of the Bahamian people. Prolonged displacement as a result of natural disaster can lead to an overall decrease in health, sense of place and agency (Thomas & Benjamin 2019).
Figure 14. Displaced residents awaiting evacuation from Abaco (Volpe 2019b).
Economic Damages
Catastrophic modeling and risk management company Karen Clark and Company (KCC) estimated that Dorian caused $7 billion in damages to The Bahamas (Cooper 2019).
The second and third most populated islands in the country, Grand Bahama and Abaco represent approximately 18% of the Bahamian gross domestic product (GDP) (Robards 2019). With the majority of businesses on the islands still closed because of flood damage, the impact of Hurricane Dorian on the Bahamian economy is undeniable and offers only a preview into future economic losses due to climate change. The tourism sector, which accounts for over one-third of the Bahamian Gross National Product (GNP) is particularly vulnerable to climate change as extreme weather events disrupt guests flows and damage infrastructure (Saunders et al., 2019; IPCC 2019).
Figure 15. McLeans Town on Grand Bahama (Kohut 2019a)
Environmental Repercussions
Hurricane Dorian’s powerful winds blew the roofs off of five of the tankers at the South Riding Point oil terminal in Grand Bahama. The oil stored onsite, which belong to a Norwegian oil company Equinor, leaked into the surrounding soil and water. Although the wave action associated with the storm helped to disperse the spilt oil and clean up is underway, the long term effects of oil on local marine life remains unknown (Robles 2019).
Figure 16. The South Riding Point oil terminal after Hurricane Dorian (Kohut 2019b)
"We are in the midst of one of the greatest national crises in our country's history" - Rt. Hon. Hubert Minnis, Prime Minister of the Commonwealth of The Bahamas
The Road Ahead: Rebuilding after Dorian
In the wake of extensive tragedies, only two options exist: retreat or rebuild.
In recent years, managed retreat options (e.g. voluntary government buyout programs) have gained political popularity with local officials aiming to relocate residents to safer areas with less vulnerability to storm surge (IPCC 2019). However, relocation is often controversial and unpopular among residents with strong emotional connections to their homelands (Thomas & Benjamin 2019). In general, relocation programs have favoured wealthy homeowners while renters and residents of informal communities were either ineligible or ignored (Marino 2018).
Although rebuilding preserves cultural heritage and agency, reconstruction may not be an option for a significant number of people, especially not in the short-term. Rebuilding options often depend on community access to insurance and other opportunities for funding, and are more difficult for lower-income populations (IPCC 2019).
Adaptation to Climate Change
As global sea levels are expected to rise and hurricanes become more intense, equitable and efficient strategies to mitigate climate risks are becoming more important. A study of hurricane damages in the Southeastern United States found that increased spending on warning systems, resilience building and risk management prior to hurricanes was more productive at reducing hurricane induced property loss than post-disaster spending (Davlasheridze, Fisher-Vanden & Klaiber 2017).
In addition to increasing warning mechanisms and updating local infrastructure, the increased threat of stronger hurricanes may also drive nations to rethink the ways in which they think about natural disasters; for example, non-economic losses due to climate change, like threats to health, wellbeing, agency, sense of place, are often not accounted for in the costs of natural disasters but are emerging as primary areas of concern as climate refugees begin to become more and more prevalent (Thomas & Benjamin 2019).
Figure 17. Bahamian Prime Minister, Rt. Hon. Hubert A. Minnis addresses the United Nations General Assembly on September 27, 2019 (Bowe 2019).
Funding Rebuilding Efforts
Hurricane Dorian is expected to have significant short-term impacts to the Bahamian treasury with revenue hits due to the interruption of business and tourism on Abaco and Grand Bahama (Rolle 2019). While the Bahamian Central Bank expects Grand Bahama to make a timely recovery from the storm, damages on Abaco were extensive and the Central Bank believes that only rebuilding activities will begin in the near future (Central Bank of The Bahamas 2019). In the meantime, the Government of the Bahamas is considering loan offers from multiple agencies and pushing tourism to other islands in the Bahama chain in order to make up for losses and to finance rebuilding efforts (Robards 2019).
Finite finances are the principal limitation to climate change adaptation listed by Caribbean small island developing states (SIDS) (Robinson 2018). For The Bahamas, access to finances are hindered by the country’s high GDP per capita, which increases loan prices from lending organizations like the World Bank and makes the nation ineligible for certain grants designed for Caribbean SIDS (Robinson 2018). However, ranked as the country with the second highest socioeconomic inequality in the Caribbean and one of the ten most expensive countries in the world to live in, The Bahamas’ GDP per capita does not reflect the situation of the average Bahamian residents.
Surminksi, Bouwer & Linnerooth-Bayer (2016) suggest that the implementation of a global climate insurance scheme, funded mostly by industrialized countries, could greatly reduce the economic burden of climate change on highly exposed countries and vulnerable populations. However, the authors caution that climate insurance would only function as an effective adaptation measure when coupled with other infrastructure projects to build resiliency.
Figure 18. Dome structures used to house displaced residents on mainland Abaco (Hanna 2019).
A Global Response to Climate Change
The damage seen in The Bahamas because of Hurricane Dorian is a reminder of the urgent need for a global response to climate change. With global temperatures constantly increasing, and more intense hurricanes occurring with each successive season, the true question that we must ask is “What will it take for all nations to make a serious attempt to combat climate change?”
Regardless of the answer, the unpleasant reality is that developing nations currently bear the onerous responsibility of fixing, and cleaning up after, a problem that they did not create.
The infographic on the right (Fig. 19) illustrates the state of the climate in 2018. With approximately 821 million people undernourished because of drought, over 2 million people displaced by weather and climate-related disasters, and over 35 million people affected by floods, climate change is a grave issue in need of immediate action.
Figure 19. Infographic on the state of the climate in 2018 (World Meteorological Organization 2019).
How Can I Help?
In the wake of Hurricane Dorian, The Government of The Bahamas has created a website where you can find information on how to donate. The best way to support the relief and recovery effort is through a monetary contribution to one of the nation's trusted partners or a donation of specific goods identified by the Bahamian authorities.
For many Bahamians, Hurricane Dorian was a nightmare. With your help, we can move forward, upward, and onward together. Click the button below to visit the official website of The Islands of The Bahamas.
Figure 20. Video explaining why cash is a better form of donation for disaster relief. (Gardiner & Fedo 2017)
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