Drought Climate Summary November 2023

Banner image: Christmas tree farm in Ashe County, North Carolina. Indy beetle, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons.

Widespread changes to U.S. drought conditions occurred in November. Improvements were pervasive in much of Texas, as well as northern Montana and the Pacific Northwest. Conversely, Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee continued to experience widespread severe, extreme and exceptional drought, with a mix of improvements and degradations across these states.

Much of the southern Appalachian region, as well as eastern Missouri, Illinois and Indiana, saw degrading conditions. Degradations were also common in eastern and southern Colorado, western and northeast Kansas, northern New Mexico and northeast Arizona.

November saw drought expand and intensify before receding — ending the month with less drought coverage on Nov. 28 than Oct. 31. Exceptional drought coverage dipped from 1.82 to 1.78%. Extreme or worse drought coverage dropped from 6.62 to 6.54%. Severe or worse drought coverage declined from 17.65 to 17.12%. Moderate or worse drought coverage decreased from 30.68 to 30.28%.

According to the National Weather Service  Climate Prediction Center , during December, widespread improvement to drought conditions is likely in parts of the South and Southeast regions. Specifically, improvements are expected east of Interstate 35 in Texas and Oklahoma, and across an area spanning from Louisiana to southern Tennessee. Improvement is also forecast in most drought-affected areas of Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia and the Mid-Atlantic. Some improvement or removal of drought is forecast for western Washington, Oregon and Hawaii. 

New drought development is not forecast anywhere in December, though drought is expected to persist in large parts of the Southwest, portions of the Midwest and eastern Central Great Plains, northern Idaho, northwest Montana and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Warmer-than-normal temperatures were common in Alaska (especially northern), Puerto Rico, and much of the central and northern Great Plains. In particular, eastern and central portions of Montana experienced temperatures 2 to 6 degrees warmer than normal, with locally higher readings. Temperatures ranging from 2 to 4 degrees cooler than normal occurred in much of New England.

Widespread drier-than-normal weather occurred in the Midwest, especially in eastern Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, western Wisconsin and southern Minnesota. Drier-than-normal weather was also common in southern Montana and in the western Dakotas. Scattered below-normal precipitation areas also occurred in parts of north Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee.

A few wetter-than-normal locations stood out during November, especially in the Florida Peninsula, south Texas, and a few spots in southern Idaho and along the Arizona-New Mexico border.

Mostly below-normal precipitation occurred during November in the Northeast, with a few local exceptions in parts of Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey and downwind of Lake Ontario — where a significant lake-effect snowstorm occurred at the end of the month. Temperatures across the region were mostly a few degrees below normal, especially in New England, where temperatures were mostly 1 to 4 degrees colder than normal.

Drought conditions degraded in parts of Maryland, southern West Virginia and western New York, while conditions mostly remained the same and largely free of drought elsewhere. Severe drought coverage increased slightly across the region from 0.27 to 0.71%, while moderate or worse drought coverage increased from 2.02 to 6.47% after peaking at 7.58% in late November.

November precipitation was well below-normal from northern Alabama to northern Georgia and into the western reaches of South and North Carolina. Most of this area received less than half of its normal November precipitation, with less than a quarter falling in some locations. Most of this area received 3 to 4.5 inches below its normal November precipitation. These amounts were mostly less than half of normal, some less than a quarter of normal. Much of the Florida Peninsula received above-normal rainfall during November, especially in the Miami area and near parts of the east-central Florida coast. Rainfall amounts were locally 3 to 6 inches above normal.

Temperatures in Virginia were mostly a few degrees within normal, as was the case in eastern North Carolina and southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. Elsewhere, temperatures ranged from mostly 1 to 4 degrees warmer than normal.

Drought conditions worsened in parts of central and western Virginia, western North Carolina, South Carolina and northern and southern Georgia. Parts of north-central Alabama also saw worsening conditions during November. Southern Alabama and western parts of the Florida Panhandle saw improvements, as did parts of eastern North Carolina.

Exceptional drought developed and then dissipated during November, reaching a peak coverage of 1.51% in the middle of the month. Extreme or worse drought coverage grew from 7.62 to 14.88% during the middle of November, then contracted to 9.33% at the end of the month. Severe or worse drought coverage also grew during November, moving from 19.55 to a peak of 40.35%, then dropping to 29.69% to end the month. Moderate or worse drought coverage grew from 46.32 to 52.7% over the course of November, reaching a high point of 62.42% in late November.

Several areas of the South region continued to experience below-normal precipitation during November. Recent dry weather continued in parts of east and north-central Texas, as well as southwest Louisiana. Drier-than-normal weather also occurred in much of Arkansas, Tennessee and northern Mississippi, as well as parts of southern and eastern Oklahoma. Meanwhile, south and southwest Texas received above-normal rainfall, locally two or three times the normal November amounts.

Most locations in the region were within a couple degrees of normal temperatures. Parts of Tennessee and the Texas Panhandle experienced temperatures 2 to 4 degrees warmer than normal, while temperatures in southeast and south Texas were mostly 2 to 4 degrees cooler than normal.

Improvements to drought conditions were common across Texas, aside from the Louisiana border area and the Texas Panhandle. A mix of drought degradations and improvements occurred in parts of Mississippi and Tennessee. At the end of November, much of Louisiana and parts of Mississippi were experiencing exceptional drought, with extreme drought covering much of the rest of the two states and the southeast part of Tennessee. Drought conditions were more scattered in Texas and Oklahoma, with local severe and extreme drought occurring in parts of both states.

Across the region, exceptional drought coverage increased slightly from 10.04 to 10.17% after rising as high as 12.66% in the middle of November. Lesser drought categories contracted in coverage during November. Extreme drought or worse coverage decreased from 23.81 to 21.85% after peaking at 24.85% in early November. Severe drought or worse coverage dropped throughout November from 45.83 to 36.13%. Moderate drought coverage declined from 66.35 to 55.05%.

Very dry weather occurred across much of the Midwest region in November, with a few local exceptions. Dry weather was especially prevalent from southeast Missouri through northwest Ohio and southeast Lower Michigan, as well as Iowa, southern Minnesota, and west-central and northern Wisconsin. Many of these areas received less than a quarter of normal precipitation for November. From southwest Missouri into Indiana, precipitation deficits were 2 to 4 inches below normal.

Temperatures were mostly 2 to 4 degrees warmer than normal in central and northwest Iowa, northwest Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Elsewhere across the region, temperatures were generally within a couple degrees of normal.

Drought conditions degraded across large portions of Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky, and in parts of northern and southern Missouri and southern Iowa. Elsewhere, either a mix of improvements and degradations or no changes occurred. Large swaths of eastern Iowa were experiencing extreme short- and long-term drought at the end of November, while severe and moderate drought also existed across portions of the region.

Overall drought coverage increased from 32.66 to 42.58% from Oct. 31 to Nov. 28. Severe or worse drought coverage also grew from 13.79 to 17.33%. Extreme drought coverage grew slightly from 3 to 3.3% after dipping to 2.87% at the beginning of November.

Above-normal precipitation fell in parts of central Kansas and central Nebraska, and in parts of the Wind River Mountains in Wyoming. Elsewhere, precipitation amounts for November were near or below normal. Drier-than-normal weather was especially prevalent in the Bighorn, Snowy, and Wyoming Ranges in Wyoming, the Black Hills of South Dakota, southeast South Dakota and adjacent northeast Nebraska, western North Dakota, and in parts of central and eastern Colorado.

Temperatures in eastern Kansas were mostly within a couple degrees of normal. Elsewhere, temperatures mostly ranged from 2 to 8 degrees warmer than normal, with a few near-normal or cooler-than-normal exceptions in west-central Colorado.

Drought degradations were widespread in eastern and southern Colorado and south central Wyoming, while scattered degradations occurred in western and northeast Kansas and adjacent southeast Nebraska. A few isolated improvements occurred in eastern Kansas and portions of Nebraska, and more widespread improvements occurred in eastern South Dakota.

Exceptional drought coverage dipped slightly from 0.71 to 0.56%. Extreme or worse drought coverage increased from 2.87 to 3.31%. Severe drought coverage also rose slightly, going from 11.56 to 12.62%. Moderate or worse drought coverage went up a few percentage points from 21.82 to 24.38%.

A mix of drier- and wetter-than-normal weather occurred across the West during November. Southern Montana, especially in the southwest part of the state, was much drier than normal — some locations there saw a quarter or less of its normal November precipitation. Parts of western Oregon and Washington also had less precipitation than normal. Elsewhere, above- versus below-normal precipitation did not exhibit many large-scale patterns, though a few more notable areas of above-normal precipitation included south-central Idaho, east-central Arizona, parts of west-central New Mexico, and a few spots in south-central and southeast California.

Warmer-than-normal weather occurred in much of western California, southern Idaho, southern Arizona, and parts of Utah, where temperatures mostly ranged from 2 to 4 degrees above normal. Except for the far northwest, Montana was much warmer than normal during November, with widespread readings from 4 to 8 degrees above normal. At the end of November, two main areas of drought or abnormal dryness were ongoing in the West. Much of New Mexico was covered with severe and extreme drought, with some areas of exceptional drought. Drought and abnormal dryness extended west into parts of Arizona, eastern Utah and the southern tip of Nevada. Conditions ranging from abnormal dryness to severe drought covered parts of far northern California, Oregon, Washington, northern Idaho and Montana.

Exceptional drought coverage dropped slightly from 0.76 to 0.66%. Extreme or worse drought coverage increased slightly from 5.18 to 5.22%. Severe or worse drought coverage dropped slightly from 17.65 to 16.29%. Moderate or worse drought coverage declined from 30.63 to 27.59%.

Wetter-than-normal weather occurred along the north slope of Alaska, and in parts of the south-central and southeast. Southwest Alaska and portions of east-central Alaska were drier than normal for November. Most of Alaska experienced warmer-than-normal temperatures for November. Compared to normal, northern Alaska was the warmest area, where temperatures at least 8 degrees above normal were common, with some spots coming in at least 12 degrees above normal. The state remained free of drought for the entirety of November.

Through Nov. 29, drier-than-normal weather was common in most of Hawaii, especially on the windward sides of the islands. Temperatures were mostly either near normal or 1 to 3 degrees warmer than normal for November.

Moderate, severe and extreme drought occurred from Oahu eastward, while moderate and severe drought were confined to the southwest side of Kauai. Extreme drought coverage increased from 4.81 to 12.39%. Severe or worse drought coverage decreased from 76.87 to 75.06%, after reaching a high point of 81.18% in early November. Moderate or worse drought coverage saw a marginal increase from 93.32 to 93.6%.

Aside from a few spots in far west-central Puerto Rico, most areas received below-normal rainfall for November. Temperatures ranging from 1 to 3 degrees above normal were also common. Most of Puerto Rico remained free of drought, though moderate drought coverage hovered just above 2%, dropping from 2.64 to 2.13% over the course of November.