If We Build it, Will They Come?

Due in part to the global pandemic, over the last year there has been a renewed interest and focus on walkable places. Termed "WalkUPs" (Walkable Urban Places), The Brookings Institute  published a study  in 2019 outlined the benefits of walkability and what cities could do to create these places, if they didn't already exist.

Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo  touted the idea  of a 15-minute City in her 2020 re-election campaign where she pledged to make Paris a less car-dependent place by making it more walkable. The premise behind the 15-minute City is simple--all of your normal daily trips (school, work, socializing, exercise) should be no further than 15 minutes from your home. This stands in stark contrast to the prototypical sprawl of many cities, especially  those in the southwestern US like El Paso .

Since then, the  15-minute City concept  has begun to take hold in US cities as well. While the basic tenants of the concept make sense and are supported by  planning theory , the question remains whether building walkable places actually results in more walking.

Before answering that question, it's important to have a common understanding of walkability. We often know walkability when we see it and even more importantly, we know when a place isn't walkable at all.  A 2015 study  by Harvard GSD Professor Ann Forsyth identified four key ingredients to walkable place:

• traversable
• compact
• safe
• physically-enticing

But even knowing this, how can we quantify these variables? While imperfect and not without its limitations, a g o-to for researchers for measuring walkability  has been the use of data from Walk Score. You can read about the methodology of Walk Score by going  here , but the general gist of Walk Score is that it measures things like nearby amenities, block lengths, intersection and population densities to assign a numeric value between 0-100, with 100 being most walkable.

The short answer to that question is "no". Among large US cities,  El Paso ranks 31st in walkability , making it a car-dependent City. But as the map below indicates, the City has neighborhoods that are quite walkable, based on the measured variables listed above.

Based on the data above, it's clear that some locales around El Paso are walkable, but do walkable places equate to people walking? To answer this question, we can use mobility data from  Replica , a tool that generates  synthetic population  models based on actual travel behaviors.

The map below shows the percentage of trips made walking or biking compared to the total trip origins from a specific block group (referred to as  modal split ). The reason we focus trip origins rather than destinations is because the decision to drive or not is made at the beginning of the journey, not the end.

When we look at both the Walk Score and modal split maps above, we can see definite similarities between the two. For example, the downtown area has both a high walk score and the highest rate of trips made by walking or bike. Meanwhile, the fringes of the city have both low walk scores and a low percentage of trips made by walking or biking.

But what about the rest of the City? Do walkable places actually producing walking and biking as an outcome? Summarizing the data to the  Census block group , we can see a clear trend and correlation based on the visualization below.

Overall, there is a positive  correlation  (r=.44) between the two variables. This means that as Walk Score increases (and thus walkability), so too do the number of trips made walking and biking. If we exclude the areas of the cities with extremely low walk scores (below 50), the correlation is even stronger (r=.54) suggesting that there is a baseline level of walkable infrastructure and destinations required to get people walking and biking.

Try out the filter in the graphic above to see how different categories of Walk Scores affect the correlation between the two variables.

Through the analysis of Census, mobility and Walk Score data, we can see that by creating walkable places, people will in fact walk and bike. For that reason, its important for cities to carefully plan the future locations of infrastructure investment. Done correctly, we can  reduce the number of vehicular trips  made on a daily basis, but also address issues of  equity  by making the City a more  accessible place  by not making car ownership a prerequisite to get around.

In our Comprehensive Plan,  Plan El Paso , future walkable destinations were identified in the map below. These areas were selected because: either the existing conditions and built environment already represent walkable patterns; or they represent a significant redevelopment opportunity to create a walkable environment.

Plan El Paso is now almost ten years old and we are now in the process of  updating this map  and related exhibits. The first and perhaps most important step in the process is deciding where walkable places either exist or should be proposed. To make this happen,  we need your feedback .

Plan El Paso set an excellent foundation from which we can build a more walkable El Paso by adopting policies that encourage walkable outcomes and investing in our infrastructure. As demonstrated in the analysis, building walkable places can create walkable outcomes but we must take action to realize the benefits.