Plan Tucson Future Growth Scenario Map

If you are planning for a year, sow rice; if you are planning for a decade, plant trees; if you are planning for a lifetime, educate people.

The purpose of this story map is to provide  substantial background and technical details on the Future Growth Scenario Map (FGSM) including what it is, how it’s used, how to give feedback, and how it was created.

The Plan Tucson teams want residents of Tucson to be empowered with the information on how this map is used. It is our hope that this makes it easier for community members to give feedback and to talk about the future growth map with confidence.

The City of Tucson is presently undergoing the process of updating its State mandated General Plan

• Municipalities must adopt a General Plan every 10 years.
• Sets the vision for Tucson’s next twenty years through goals and policies that help guide the change that occurs in the region.
• Must include 17 elements laid out by the Arizona Revised Statutes (ARS) – examples are: Circulation, Housing, Open Space, Cost of Development, Land Use, etc.
• The Land Use element includes the Future Growth Scenario Map – one of the most important portions of the General Plan

• Provides a vision and direction of the type of growth the City wants or needs and where that should be located
• Provides guidance on future code changes and/or zoning overlays
• All rezonings must be in conformance with the General Plan (required by ARS)

Implementation of the Future Growth Scenario Map and its policies can help to address:

• Climate change
• Housing affordability
• Extreme heat
• Effectiveness of transportation and transit systems
• Water use

Future Growth Scenario (Guidance)

• Designates the general location, distribution, and extent of land uses (such as residential, commercial, industrial or mixed use) within the planning area
• Maps & policies help to guide growth and general land uses.
• The Map is accompanied by the building block descriptions and guidelines for development review

Zoning Code (Legal Requirements)

• City of Tucson Unified Development Code defines specific permitted uses and regulatory requirements such as building setbacks, height, minimum lot size, parking, etc. for each zone
• Designations shown on City’s legally adopted zoning map

Entitlement (Process to develop)

Legal process of gaining all necessary approvals to develop a piece of property for a specific use

Property owners can build according to current zoning regulations, also called “by right.” In some cases, property owners may apply to to change what can be built by rezoning their property. This initiates a rezoning process, which is also called an entitlements process.

Through an entitlements process, the City of Tucson staff, in planning and other departments, and the Zoning Examiner review the change for alignment with Plan Tucson Future Growth Scenario Map and other planning documents.

To be in compliance with Plan Tucson, city staff will look for alignment with Plan Tucson policies, the Future Growth Scenario Map, and the Guidelines for Development Review.

Compliance with Plan Tucson & Neighborhood/Area Plan is necessary for rezoning approval. If not compliant, a Plan Amendment is required by Mayor & Council through an established process

 The Guidelines for Development Review are available for review and comment on www.plantucon.org/future-growth

The Map illustrates one example of how the City of Tucson can evolve to better meet our current population’s needs and accommodate projected population growth. It is a tool to guide our City toward land uses that we would support. It doesn’t change current zoning. It’s policy guidance, and not regulatory.

The Map is comprised of Building Blocks and Special Planning Areas, which provide guidance for rezonings, zoning code updates, and other planning processes in the City. Each has a basic description, shown here, plus a set of detailed guidelines, available on the Plan Tucson website. City staff carefully review these materials during rezoning and master planning processes.

The most significant differences between most building blocks are the allowed uses and the associated level of “intensity.” The term intensity refers to the collected contributions of use, height, placement on the property, and density. For example, adding a corner store to a neighborhood is less “intense” than a large grocery store, or a 2-story building is less intense than a 5-story one.

The Plan Tucson team is using the following guidelines and goals to update the FGSM:

• Match the map to existing development patterns​
• Meet the housing and job needs for current population and future Tucsonans​
• Align with desired development patterns (outreach winter 2024) ​
• Simplify categories & increase public input overall

• In 2013, the map development was done towards the end, and many community members felt they wanted more input.
• In 2023-2024, we started early, collected 895 data points on desired development trends, which informed the scenarios. Also, community members will review scenarios and help form the map that goes into the plan

• In 2013, the Consultant hired used proprietary tools to analyze a variety of important data, but the details of their methods are difficult for staff to access today.
• In 2023-2024, the update to the FGSM is being done “in house.” This creates a longer process and allows for greater transparency.

• Since 2013, There have been some areas in Tucson where development guidance needed clarification.
• In 2023-2024, to add clarity the building block categories are streamlined, better defined, and placements were updated.

The following is a summary of the changes. Readers can find additional information in the Technical Details memo on  www.plantucson.org/future-growth  The Plan Tucson team propose the following revisions to building block categories:

a.      Apply “Mixed Use Activity Center” instead of “Campus Areas," and eliminating the "campus areas" category because they have similar levels of intensity and mix of uses, making the Campus Area redundant and niche.

b.      Merge “Existing Neighborhoods” and “Neighborhood with Greater Infill Potential” into a “Neighborhoods” category because they share the same guidance and all neighborhoods need the flexibility to adapt according to it’s resident’s needs.

c.      The “Neighborhood Center & Corridor” Building Block was defined to encourage small-scale neighborhood-serving amenities.

d.      Housing is encouraged in all building blocks as appropriate

e.      Used “Special Planning Areas” to illustrate the areas that will develop but will follow unique planning processes. These Special Planning Areas include State Trust Land, Planned Area Developments, and Potential Annexation Areas

Readers can learn more about the Building Blocks and Special Planning Areas, including the Guidelines for Development Review, and leave comments at www.plantucson.org/future-growth.

The Preliminary Draft of the updated future growth scenario map was created using the following data. Additional details on the changes made and the process are summarized in the technical memo on www.plantucson.org/future-growth. The data used in the placement of the building blocks included:

• Community-preferred development trends: prioritize infill and development along major corridors, collected October 2023 – February 2024
• Transportation Infrastructure and proposed projects: City of Tucson complete street typologies, Proximity to bike lanes, Proximity to high-capacity transit lines (existing and proposed in Move Tucson), Capacity (Move Tucson)
• Within the Tucson Water Obligated Service Area
• Tucson’s  Equity Priority Index 
• Environmental Constraints: Major floodways, Sheet flooding, Flood Hazards, Archeological Areas, Hillslope Development Zone, Environmental Resource Zones
• Community Reinvestment Areas: Tucson Norte Sur, Urban Overlay Zones, Rio Nuevo Area, Central Business District, Downtown Urban Infill Incentive District
• Aligns with Neighborhood and Area Plans
• Aligns with Existing Zoning
• Supported by Market Trends

The Plan Tucson team used these datasets to inform and validate the placement of building blocks in the preliminary draft. The Preliminary Draft, shown in this story map above, is available for public review and comment online at www.plantucson.org/future-growth and at various in-person events between April 23 and June 02, 2024.