Mapping climate change for Kent County Council

Our changing climate is already affecting us all. Eighteen of the warmest years on record have occurred during the last twenty years. Today's average temperatures are 1°C higher than they were in the 1960s. This is illustrated by a graphic from the UK Met Office, where cooler years are blue and warmer years red:

Kent County Council commissioned Exprodat to produce a series of map-based data visualisations to show how climate change will affect the county over the coming decades. This story map shares some of the maps and animations we produced using ArcGIS and climate data from the UK Meteorological Office.

By knowing more about what is likely to happen to our climate, we can adapt and prepare for these effects now.

The UK Met Office produces climate change projections every 10 years, which allows us to look more accurately at how the climate will change in the future. The most recent projections in 2018 were at their highest resolution yet and enabled us to narrow down the local climate to 5km squared grids. This data was then used to show us more about what Kent can expect over the next 60 years based on our current actions.

In the next 20 years we can expect:

• Increased mean temperatures, both annually and across all 4 seasons.
• Increased maximum temperatures, making heatwaves more likely.
• Changes in precipitation that can cause droughts in summer and flooding in winter.
• More extreme weather.

By 2080 we are likely to experience:

• Summers hotter by around 5–6°C.
• Winters warmer by around 3–4°C.
• Up to half less summer rainfall (down by 30–50%).
• About a quarter more winter rainfall (up by 20–30%).
• Further extreme weather.

Climate change is a complex phenomenon playing out in space and time, captured primarily as variations in temperature, precipitation, humidity and wind. We created GIS layers and dynamic time series from 2021 to 2080 covering

• average annual air temperature (for maximums and means)
• precipitation
• relative humidity
• wind and wind gusts

averaged for spring, summer, autumn, winter and whole years.

Here are two examples, covering summer maximum air temperature and winter precipitation across Kent from 2021 to 2080. (Note: The apparent gap around 2050 is due to the climate model resolution.)

As you can see from the video animations, the climate models predict natural variations from year to year – the change is not linear or constant. The following swipe maps provide snapshots of the overall change that can be expected over the next sixty years.

Air temperatures, averaged through the year, are forecast to increase by several degrees in 2080. Compare the climate model predictions in this swipe map:

As we have seen, precipitation is predicted in increase in winter and at other times of the year. This swipe map shows the reduction in autumn rainfall between 2022 and 2080:

We can all play a part in mitigating climate change by taking actions to reduce our emissions. For example, we can make adaptations to our homes and businesses. Kent County Council is taking steps to lead this effort with the following initiatives:

 Kent and Medway Climate Change Risk and Impact Assessment 

• A comprehensive climate change risk and impact assessment for Kent and Medway considering industry, agriculture, people, built environment, natural environment and transport.
• From these, Kent County Council has identified key priorities and is currently developing a full adaptation strategy to help prepare the county for climate change.

 Severe Weather Impacts Monitoring System (SWIMS) 

• A system allowing Kent's public sector organisations to record and monitor severe weather impacts.
• Since the launch in 2012, over 80 severe weather events have been logged in the system, resulting in total costs and investments of £18.64 million.
• By monitoring these incidences and effects of severe weather, Kent County Council is determining the right measures to reduce their impact.

This story map only scratched the surface of the data and issues covered. For more information please contact:

 Kent County Council 

Story Map produced by  Exprodat , a  Getech Group  company.

Email:  info@exprodat.com  

This project received funding from the Interreg 2 Seas programme 2014-2020, co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund under subsidy contract No 2S05-040.