Mapping climate change for Kent County Council
How powerful maps help the 'Garden of England' manage climate risks
Our changing climate is already affecting us all. Eighteen of the warmest years on record have occurred during the last twenty years. Today's average temperatures are 1°C higher than they were in the 1960s. This is illustrated by a graphic from the UK Met Office, where cooler years are blue and warmer years red:
Kent County Council commissioned Exprodat to produce a series of map-based data visualisations to show how climate change will affect the county over the coming decades. This story map shares some of the maps and animations we produced using ArcGIS and climate data from the UK Meteorological Office.
The county of Kent, England
Known as the 'Garden of England', Kent is famed for its white cliffs, green rolling hills and historical character (shown in purple, including Medway).
With its long coastline, diverse natural environment, vibrant economy and high population density, the county is particularly exposed to the impacts of climate change.
Rain and flooding
Climate change is raising the Earth's temperature, which in turn is leading to greater rainfall and greater risks of flooding.
Also, extreme weather events will increase throughout the year – such as heavy, localised downpours causing flash flooding.
Flooding from rivers, surface water runoff and the sea can affect many parts of society including homes, businesses and transport networks. This map shows the location of Kent's rivers (in blue).
Heat and droughts
In contrast to wetter winters, climate models predict less rain for summers – raising the prospect of drought. This can lead to water shortages and degrade agricultural land.
Warmer temperatures and heat waves also affect biodiversity, making it harder for native species to survive. Beaches will see increased summer tourism as warmer summers attract more people to Kent for their holidays.
This map shows the types of land cover derived from the European Space Agency's Copernicus programme for earth observation. It clearly shows Kent's agricultural lands (yellow tones), heaths and woodlands (greens), and urban areas (reds).
Sea level rise
Sea levels have already risen by 19cm since 1900. This has caused increased coastal erosion, which is likely to accelerate in coming years.
Also, the increasing intensity and frequency of storms will exacerbate coastal erosion and flooding – requiring stronger sea defences all around the coast.
This map shows the High Water Mark (in red) along the coast and tidal rivers.
Sea defences at Dymchurch
This map shows the location of Dymchurch, Kent. The satellite image clearly depicts the concrete sea defences, also shown in the picture below. Zoom out on the map to see the location in context.
Dymchurch promenade and sea defences.
Climate projections
By knowing more about what is likely to happen to our climate, we can adapt and prepare for these effects now.
The UK Met Office produces climate change projections every 10 years, which allows us to look more accurately at how the climate will change in the future. The most recent projections in 2018 were at their highest resolution yet and enabled us to narrow down the local climate to 5km squared grids. This data was then used to show us more about what Kent can expect over the next 60 years based on our current actions.
Kent Live headline, 4 July 2020.
In the next 20 years we can expect:
- Increased mean temperatures, both annually and across all 4 seasons.
- Increased maximum temperatures, making heatwaves more likely.
- Changes in precipitation that can cause droughts in summer and flooding in winter.
- More extreme weather.
By 2080 we are likely to experience:
- Summers hotter by around 5–6°C.
- Winters warmer by around 3–4°C.
- Up to half less summer rainfall (down by 30–50%).
- About a quarter more winter rainfall (up by 20–30%).
- Further extreme weather.
Visualising climate change to 2080
Climate change is a complex phenomenon playing out in space and time, captured primarily as variations in temperature, precipitation, humidity and wind. We created GIS layers and dynamic time series from 2021 to 2080 covering
- average annual air temperature (for maximums and means)
- precipitation
- relative humidity
- wind and wind gusts
averaged for spring, summer, autumn, winter and whole years.
Here are two examples, covering summer maximum air temperature and winter precipitation across Kent from 2021 to 2080. (Note: The apparent gap around 2050 is due to the climate model resolution.)
As you can see from the video animations, the climate models predict natural variations from year to year – the change is not linear or constant. The following swipe maps provide snapshots of the overall change that can be expected over the next sixty years.
Temperatures in 2080
Air temperatures, averaged through the year, are forecast to increase by several degrees in 2080. Compare the climate model predictions in this swipe map:
Swipe right to see maximum air temperatures averaged for 2021. Swipe left to reveal the same for 2080.
Rainfall patterns in 2080
As we have seen, precipitation is predicted in increase in winter and at other times of the year. This swipe map shows the reduction in autumn rainfall between 2022 and 2080:
Autumn rainfall in 2022 (left image) and 2080 (right).
Mitigating the risks
We can all play a part in mitigating climate change by taking actions to reduce our emissions. For example, we can make adaptations to our homes and businesses. Kent County Council is taking steps to lead this effort with the following initiatives:
- A comprehensive climate change risk and impact assessment for Kent and Medway considering industry, agriculture, people, built environment, natural environment and transport.
- From these, Kent County Council has identified key priorities and is currently developing a full adaptation strategy to help prepare the county for climate change.
- A system allowing Kent's public sector organisations to record and monitor severe weather impacts.
- Since the launch in 2012, over 80 severe weather events have been logged in the system, resulting in total costs and investments of £18.64 million.
- By monitoring these incidences and effects of severe weather, Kent County Council is determining the right measures to reduce their impact.
Further information
This story map only scratched the surface of the data and issues covered. For more information please contact:
Story Map produced by Exprodat , a Getech Group company.
Email: info@exprodat.com
This project received funding from the Interreg 2 Seas programme 2014-2020, co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund under subsidy contract No 2S05-040.
