Community Resilience

As a signatory of the Climate Commitment, Shippensburg University is using public regional data in conjunction with the results of our Community Resilience Survey to plan resilience efforts.

This project used the components of risk as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (Cardona et. al., 2012):

Hazards: "The possible, future occurrence of natural or human-induced physical events that may have adverse effects on vulnerable and exposed elements."

Vulnerability: "The propensity of exposed elements such as human beings, their livelihoods, and assets to suffer adverse effects when impacted by hazard events."

Exposure: "The inventory of elements in an area in which hazard events may occur."

These components were analyzed at the census tract level through data from FEMA, Esri, and the US Census Bureau.

The  assessment of vulnerability  in Adams, Cumberland, Franklin, and York Counties was based upon demographic factors correlated with social vulnerability. The following ten factors were chosen:

• Percent of Households in Poverty
• Percent Unemployed
• Percent Without Access to a Vehicle
• Percent Who Speak English "Less Than Well"
• Percent Under 18
• Percent 65 or Older
• Percent Minority
• Percent Disabled
• Percent with High School Diploma or GED (inverse correlation)
• Percent with Some College/Associate's/Bachelor's (inverse correlation)

Each factor in the top or bottom 20% of census tracts in the region was scored as an indicator of either resilience or vulnerability.

The  assessment of climate hazard exposure  in Adams, Cumberland, Franklin, and York Counties incorporated the IPCC components of hazard and exposure. The following climate-related hazards were chosen from FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI):

• Cold Waves
• Droughts
• Heat Waves
• Ice Storms
• Riverine Flooding
• Strong Winds
• Winter Weather

While the actual National Risk Index is based a number of factors and its own methodology, its creators provided the expected annual loss ($) from each hazard. A cumulative score for climate hazard exposure was determined based upon these data.

Analysis of each census tract in context was facilitated through three dashboards, detailing social vulnerability, climate hazard exposure, and a summary of overall risk.

The Shippensburg Community Resilience Survey was made available in print as well as online. It let us know what community members within the Shippensburg Area School District considered the biggest resilience issues facing them in the summer of 2022.

These responses do not necessary represent the University's priorities -- for instance, though tornadoes rank highly among community hazard concerns, they are relatively rare in Pennsylvania.

2/3 of the responders to the Community Resilience Survey were white; 2/3 were male; 2/3 had an associate's degree or less. 60% owned their own house, while the remaining 40% rented. Most were from Shippensburg Borough, Shippensburg Township, Southampton Township Cumberland County, and Southampton Township Franklin County. 75% had household incomes under $75,000 per year.

The dashboards were created to put communities in context, to understand them as parts of a regional whole. Maps provide an intuitive grasp of how each element relates to its neighbors. Baseline data provide an understanding of the economics of the region. Risk factors show where resources for prevention, mitigation, and response to hazard events should be allocated.

Together with the results of the Community Resilience Survey, this analysis provides the data needed to connect with the Shippensburg community and support resilience in our local and regional endeavors.

Cardona, O.D., M.K. van Aalst, J. Birkmann, M. Fordham, G. McGregor, R. Perez, R.S. Pulwarty, E.L.F. Schipper, and B.T. Sinh. (2012). Determinants of risk: exposure and vulnerability. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach,G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, pp. 65-108.

Esri (2021). Esri Updated Demographics. Retrieved from Esri Community Analyst.

Scott, J. (2018, March 23). Cumberland County remains the fastest-growing Pa. County. Central Penn Business Journal. Retrieved April 24, 2022, from https://www.cpbj.com/cumberland-county-remains-the-fastest-growing-pa-county/

U.S. Census Bureau (2020). American Community Survey. Retrieved from Esri Community Analyst.

Maps and dashboards throughout this presentation were created using ArcGIS® software by Esri. ArcGIS® and ArcMap™ are the intellectual property of Esri and are used herein under license. Copyright © Esri. All rights reserved. For more information about Esri® software, please visit  www.esri.com .