Greater Banjul Area 2040 Development Plan

The Gambia has one of the fastest urbanisation rates in sub-Saharan Africa, with the Greater Banjul Area (GBA) already accounting for more than 60% of the total population. Rapid and unplanned urbanisation has resulted in environmental and socio-economic problems including deforestation, soil erosion and pollution and waste generation, as well as an enlarged urban footprint and impacts on health, education and employment services.

The country’s new development agenda prioritises the need for integrated urban planning and development to address these challenges and equip the cities with proper instruments to prepare for increased urbanisation, traffic flows, and vulnerability to climatic change.

In response to this priority, the African Development Bank, through an agreement with the Government of The Gambia and the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS) as implementing partner, launched the Greater Banjul Sustainable Urban Development Programme (SUDP) 2020-40 to provide an overarching and multisectoral framework for planned urban development of the GBA over the 20-year period.

The Greater Banjul Area 2040 Development Plan embeds the shared vision created by the stakeholders within a new urban plan for the Greater Banjul Area, with a phased development horizon for the next 20 years. It also includes a five-year investment plan consisting of strategic investments to kick start and catalyse the implementation of the Development Plan.

The planning methodology was based on a hybrid model designed and led by the UNOPS, in collaboration with technical consultant Arup and with broad stakeholder participation.

The Development Plan has been drafted in accordance with the Physical Planning and Development Control Act (No.1 of 1991). It contains an analysis of the existing conditions of the planning area, sets a strategy to guide the development according to current challenges and opportunities and the vision created by stakeholders, and outlines policies and guidelines for the development of the Greater Banjul Area. It is primarily a plan for land use and urban development, but it is also a broad and interdisciplinary policy document addressing many different topics relevant to the authority and mandates of different agencies of national and local government.

The  Development Plan has been designed to guide the GBA community at large – not only decision makers, but also developers and applicants seeking approval for land use permits, and private and civil society parties who collaborate and cooperate with government agencies – through the process of making decisions, determining future projects and priorities, and allocating resources for their respective efforts and responsibilities.

The planning area for this Development Plan is the GBA, consisting of the city of Banjul, capital of The Gambia, and the larger nearby cities of Kanifing and Brikama. The planning area has a land area of approximately 490 km ²  and a population of approximately 1.4 million in 2020.

The built-up area (50.4%) and non-built area (49.6%) comprise nearly equal shares of the land uses in the Greater Banjul Area. As of 2020 the gross density was 2.858 persons per km ² , well below that of metropolitan areas in neighbouring countries of West Africa.

Lower prices and greater availability of land has displaced the residential demand southwards, causing sprawl and erasing the original settlement boundaries. However, the provision of employment opportunities, urban services and infrastructure, and other amenities has not followed the same trend, and the concentration of these uses remains around Banjul and Kanifing, in the northern part of the GBA.

The land utilisation pattern in the Greater Banjul Area is dominated by extended residential uses, which occupy around 22,000 hectares, or 45% of the land area of the GBA.

Agricultural and undeveloped lands account for 24% of the study area, presenting an opportunity to preserve agricultural lands and reserve vacant lands that provide valuable functions, including ecosystem services, food production, and renewable energy generation.

Business and commercial activities are widely distributed along the main transportation corridors, with significant concentrations in Banjul and Kanifing. Available land for industrial and logistics activities is scarce and is often not well suited for these purposes.

Public services and amenities are concentrated within Banjul and Kanifing, while Brikama and the southwest portion of the GBA are lacking in many basic services.

Occupying the entire Atlantic coastal strip of the GBA, the Tourism Development Area, is a 804 metres inland corridor from the high tide mark, which land use development, planning and management is under the Gambia Tourism Board mandate.

Basic Urban Services and Transport

In recent decades the Greater Banjul Area has experienced a high rate of in-migration of people from other areas of The Gambia, accompanied by a construction boom and sustained economic growth since 2017 (paused by the COVID pandemic).

The lack of a sector  approach to infrastructure expansion and urban services delivery services, coupled with the lack of urban planning and development control, among other factors, has led to a situation in which there are pockets of population with inadequate access to public services. This has also created increasing pressure on government coffers due to high production and distribution costs.

Unaffordable decent housing, lack of serviced and safe public spaces, generalised out of the pocket expenses to access social services and limited opportunities for women and vulnerable groups are the main barriers to break down to improve the social well-being as an integral part to the sustainability of the GBA.

Housing

The most common residential dwelling type in the GBA is a detached, single-story structure with a low floor-area-to-plot-size ratio. As the population grows and the land becomes scarce, this land use pattern has increased real estate prices and induced sprawl. On a positive note, in recent years the market in the GBA is seeing a growing presence of multi-story houses in some centralities (e.g. Brusubi). Housing availability, affordability, and quality continues to present challenges in the GBA.

Economic Scenario

Economic and population growth will contribute to shaping  the GBA over the next two decades and are key to projecting land and development needs and determining how those needs can best be addressed.

The Gambia’s economy is fragile and has been heavily hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, although prudent government management limited its impact. From 2013 to 2017 the GDP grew at 1.2% yearly on average, then surged strongly between 2018 and 2019, with 6.6% and 5.4% growth respectively.

This positive evolution was largely due to the expansion in tourism, trade, agriculture, and construction, as a renewed period of economic confidence attracted investors and spurred entrepreneurship.

Service activities stand out in the employment structure of the GBA. A majority of the region’s population is employed in wholesale and retail (10.4%), education (7.6%), accommodation and food activities (5.8%), and other services (28.6%). The working age population in the GBA totals around 866,000, with a low participation rate (~47%). Women’s participation in the labor force is lower than that of men.

The entrepreneurship landscape in Gambia is dominated by micro and small enterprises, with 47% of the working population being self employed.

In the medium term the Gambia’s economy is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 6.3% until 2026, while long-term estimates project a 5.5% annual growth rate from 2030 to 2040.

Despite this sound GDP prospect, the country needs to face challenges, like the high public debt limiting the borrowing window, large financial support to public companies pushing fiscal deficit up, and financial sector vulnerabilities.

Demographic Growth

Providing affordable housing and employment opportunities for the growing population are core challenges for the GBA.

The population of the GBA in 2020 is approximately 1.4 million, around 58% of the total population of The Gambia. GBA residents have a young profile, around 39.8% are 14 years of age or less, and a high fertility rate, at 5.1 children per woman.

Recent population growth has been rapid, at a rate of 5.1% between 2013 and 2020. Large immigration and families seeking available and affordable solutions, explain the explosive growth of the population in the southern part of the GBA.

In 2040 the GBA is expected to reach 2.7 million people, growing at a rate of 3.4% (AAGR). The plan anticipates a decline in the fertility rate and a reduction in the average household size.

Considering the outline scenario, there is a potential need for development of 255,634 new homes over the 20-year planning period, up to 12,000 per year.

Employment is another factor to consider, since as the population grows the number of people seeking employment opportunities will increase.

In 2040 it is expected that the working age population will reach 1.64 million, and the GBA will need to provide about 900,000 jobs across a range of sectors.

A visioning process supporting the Greater Banjul 2040 Plan was conducted from 10 to 12 March 2020, with over 100 participants representing all relevant stakeholders and geographic areas of the GBA. There was fairly good gender balance among participants (around 40% women) and involvement of differently-abled community representatives.

This vision statement set the framework for drafting the Development Plan and guided all the stages of the plan-making process, though some of its elements were refined in following stages through the incorporation of evidence-based analysis, scenarios, and further technical studies.

The Development Plan Guiding Principles are derived from the vision and chosen development scenario, and provide the framework and basis for the Concept Development Plan and for the design of Policies and Actions to be implemented during the timeline of the Development Plan.

The Concept Development Plan and Spatial Strategy are the manifestation of an urban planning response to the priorities and desires of the people of Greater Banjul. They illustrate strategies to address challenges and seize current and future opportunities.

Polycentric Greater Banjul Area with development focused around centralities

The plan seeks to develop a hierarchy of places, directing the appropriate level of growth and services to selected central places within the Greater Banjul Area, and to allow their development in a way that is complementary rather than competitive.

This strategy is key in reducing the current dependencies on Banjul and Kanifing for the majority of the region’s services and jobs, as well as in establishing a more sustainable urban form. 

Consolidated development and densification

The plan promotes densification of development, moving from the current low-density and high land consumption model to a denser and more sustainable, compact, connected approach. 

The plan proposes a density curve where the centralities in the polycentric development approach should achieve higher densities. Target density then decreases towards less consolidated urban and agricultural areas.

Protection of valued assets

An essential objective under the plan is to maintain and improve the current level of protection of the protected areas and heritage assets. It is critical to prevent building in environmentally sensitive areas as well as high recreational value and agricultural areas, In addition, encroachment of development into areas with key community facilities must be avoided.

Flexibility and anticipating unexpected changes

The policies of the plan are flexible enough to accommodate a range of solutions and actions rather than over-prescribing or delineating specific interventions.

The plan ensures that decisions will be made based on sufficient evidence and proposes corresponding measures to avoid or limit potential negative impacts.

Phased Development Approach

A carefully planned sequencing approach to carry out this spatial strategy was designed to facilitate coherent development of the proposed land use pattern.

• Short term actions (quick gains) are focus in building the fundamentals to make possible the change of paradigm in land use planning and development in the GBA: Prevent development in high-risk and environmentally sensitive areas, Targeted investments to consolidate current centralities, Asset management and improving existing infrastructure over new ones, develop local plans.
• Mid to Long term actions (building on sustainable choices) are focus in the fully develop and consolidate the Concept Development Plan and its Spatial Strategy: promote density and mixed uses, orient new developments to the most effective use of land, and direct investment to achieve a more sustainable urban form (polycentric GBA).

The Land Use Plan 2040 is the graphic expression of the Strategic Plan and its Spatial Strategy. It reflects the Vision, Objectives and Guiding Principles of the Development Plan, and it depicts the future land use scenario to be realised through the implementation by 2040 of the policies, actions, and other proposed changes in the plan.

The Development Plan Policies convey the aspirations and priorities of GBA residents and decision makers.  The Policies serve as the basis for both public and private decision making and provide direction for future regulations, actions, and investments.

Each policy focuses on a single issue and helps contribute to the fulfilment of one or more objectives in the Development Plan, and is followed by one or more actions or activities that can be carried out with a specified set of resources, and in a specific period of time. The actions directly support, and flow from, the policies.

The policies and actions in the Development Plan are related to, and are intended to be carried out in coordination with, programmes and policies from various public and private entities and various levels of levels of government.

The GBA 2040 Plan, as a comprehensive plan for sustainable urban development, provides guidance and overall strategic direction for a wide range of thematic areas. Upon approval of the Development Plan by the central government, the policies in the plan become obligatory for the responsible authorities identified in the plan. These central and local government authorities are then required to follow the strategic guidance in the Development Plan as they carry out their respective mandates and in their ongoing activities.

In addition, as part of the implementation process, more specific and detailed actions will need to be defined following adoption of the Development Plan in order to effectively carry out the policy guidance provided by the plan. Due to the complex and interdisciplinary nature of urban management, implementation of the Development Plan will require extensive coordination between different areas and levels of government. It will also require innovation and collaboration between government and external partners in The Gambia and abroad.

The implementation strategy for the GBA 2040 Development Plan includes a discussion of the four key pillars, or integral components, to create a foundation for successful future action; and a table of priority actions that will set the stage for effective administration of the plan and serve as catalysts for the realization of its policy objectives.

A two tier approach system of indicators for monitoring and evaluation is proposed within the framework of the Development Plan. One set of indicators is dedicated to assess the evolution of the plan outputs, and the other set intends to evaluate key outcomes the plan will contribute to achieve.

Progress toward achieving the Development Plan outputs will be evaluated through the evolution of land uses in the GBA (Commercial and Offices, Industrial and Logistics, Residential, Green and Open Space) and changes in other key spatial planning standards including plot sizes and development density. These changes should be monitored at yearly intervals and evaluated every five years.

This set of indicators is useful to support officials of the MoLRG and LGAs in making meaningful decisions when an applicant submits a development proposal or when an institution plans for the provision of a service in a given area. The indicators should be used along with the determinations, policies and guidelines of this plan in order to guide a sustainable development pattern.

The Investment Plan presents strategic outline cases for 10 shortlisted schemes in the GBA, along with a road map for their development over the next five years. The Investment Plan supports the Greater Banjul Area 2040 Development Plan that has been created to guide sustainable urban development in the region. These priority schemes have been selected using multi-criteria analysis and engagement with local stakeholders. Some of the schemes had significant synergies and have consequently been grouped together into the 10 strategic outline cases

In addition to the Greater Banjul Area 2040 Development Plan, please find below the following reports:

• Planning for Inclusive Greater Banjul
• Greater Banjul Area 2040 Development Plan
• Greater Banjul Area 2040 Investment Plan
• Strategic Environmental Assessment Report for the Greater Banjul Area 2040 Development Plan

 _{Disclaimer: This story map presents a summarised version of the Greater Banjul Area 2040 Development Plan. It is intended to present the salient features contained in the Plan in a user-friendly manner for residents and institutions of Greater Banjul, The Gambia, and other interested parties. The contents included do not replace the documents formally accepted by the project partners, nor do they include any updates and/or modifications to those documents subsequent to the conclusion of the Greater Banjul Area Sustainable Urban Development Programme in March 2022.}  

 _{Disclaimer: Unless expressly stated otherwise, the findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this publication are those of the various authors of the publication and are not necessarily those of the Management of the African Development Bank (the “Bank”) and the African Development Fund (the “Fund”), Boards of Directors, Boards of Governors or the countries they represent. The content of this publication is provided without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied, including without limitation warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non- infringement of third-party rights. The Bank specifically does not make any warranties or representations as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or current validity of any information contained in the publication.}  

Contact:  dpphgba2040@gmail.com 

Credits: UNOPS, Government of The Gambia, African Development Bank Group, Arup