Community-Based Flood Risk Reduction Project

The “Twin Towns” of San Ignacio and Santa Elena are located at the confluence of the Macal and Mopan Rivers in the Cayo District of western Belize. The Twin Towns have an estimated population of 28,000 residents, making this the second largest urban center in the country.

Nestled between several important Mayan archeological sites, the Twin Towns are a prime tourist destination and economic hub. The service and tourism sectors account for nearly 70 percent of the local economy.

Floods pose a frequent threat to the tourism sector and economic well-being of the Twin Towns. 

San Ignacio and Santa Elena are a gateway to many tourist activities and destinations, including ancient Mayan sites, caving, and river and water activities. With its flourishing economy, the Twin Towns attract investors, entrepreneurs, and workers from across the country.

Photo: Xunantunich Mayan Ruins

The climate in Belize has two seasons - a wet and dry season. From late June to early November, the wet season brings most of the year's rainfall.

During the wet season, rain falls disproportionately throughout the country, as southern Belize often receives more than twice the mean annual rainfall of the north. 

The map of Belize, shown to the right, depicts areas in blue that receive the highest amounts of rainfall.

The Twin Towns, located in the northwest of Belize, are vulnerable to floods despite receiving relatively less rainfall than areas to the south.

During the wet season from June to November, the Twin Towns often experience severe flooding. In recent years, flash flooding has happened outside of hurricane season, catching the community off guard and causing serious damage to many homes and businesses. 

Although the Twin Towns receive less rainfall than many other parts of the country, San Ignacio and Santa Elena are located in a valley and experience significant amounts of runoff when storms occur. 

The Twin Towns are bordered by rolling hills and mountains that rise up to 1,000 feet above the community. Shaded areas on this topographic map show areas with higher elevation. The Maya Mountains to the south and rolling hills to the north create conditions that magnify runoff and often produce devastating floods.

The green and blue dots shown on the satellite imagery (top) correspond to the area covered by the elevation chart shown below. Meanwhile, the elevation chart depicts a cross-section of the local topography. The pink box shows the area of San Ignacio, while the turquoise box shows the location of the Macal River. Given its higher elevation, flood waters inundate the towns below whenever the river swells beyond its banks. 

Protecting lifelines is critical to building community resilience. To develop more effective risk reduction strategies, it is important for communities to identify which lifelines are likely to be affected by flooding. They must also understand the impact of floods on the lifelines and the vital services they provide. Vulnerable lifelines require special attention to either reduce their exposure to floods or increase their capacity to operate without disruptions in the face of extreme weather events. 

For each lifeline, PADF is collecting information about each lifeline in the community, including:

• Lifeline name
• Types of services provided
• Photographs 
• GPS coordinates  

This information is then assessed using GIS tools and flood models to determine which of these critical services are most vulnerable to flooding.

PADF is publishing information on lifelines to OpenStreetMap (OSM), the largest editable map of the world, so that others can also benefit from the data being collected.

This map shows the location of lifelines in the Twin Towns.  

This map was created using a hydrologic model developed by the National Taiwan University and the Taiwan International Cooperation and Development Fund (ICDF). It shows the Macal River and areas expected to experience flooding in the event that 200 mm of rain were to fall in a span of 12 hours According to this model, the darkest red areas would see flood waters surpass three meters in depth.

Changing weather patterns mean that flooding no longer impacts just those people living along the river bank. This model shows that areas in the Twin Town farther from the Macal River are increasingly likely to experience flooding at varying intensities.

Neighborhoods in northeastern San Ignacio are especially vulnerable to flooding. More importantly, some lifelines are located in flood risk areas.

PADF is conducting focus groups to assess public perceptions of disaster risk, particularly the probability and impact of floods on different lifelines in the community.  

PADF has developed this index to help with the prioritization of risk reduction strategies. Information gathered during focus groups will be used by public officials to inform prioritization of areas where flooding has the highest probability and impact on the community. 

In this index, "probability" refers to the likelihood that a location, such as a house, business, or “lifeline,” will experience a given hazard or hazards. Such probabilities are determined based on an assessment of past exposure to hazards, as well as model-based predictions about future events. This may also map perceptions of disaster risk in the community. 

Likewise, "impact" is understood as the sensitivity, impact or cost of being exposed to a given hazard or hazards. Costs might include infrastructure damage and replacement costs, as well as social, economic, health, educational, or other impacts on the community’s well-being.