Provisional State of the Global Climate 2023

Between 2008 and 2018, across least developed countries and lower middle-income countries, 34% of disaster-related crop and livestock production losses were attributed to drought, followed by 19% to flooding events, 18% to severe storms and hurricanes, 9% to crop pests and animal diseases, 6% to extreme temperatures, and 1% to wildfires.

In the Sahel region, human security and development challenges continue to mount, with complex, diverse, and growing risks. Despite favorable weather conditions in 2023 thus far in the West Africa region, cereal production is forecast to decline by -1.9% compared to 2022. The challenging situation in the Sahel region has brought Mali, Burkina Faso, South Sudan, and Somalia to the brink of experiencing famine in 2023.

Despite wetter-than-average conditions returning and offering respite from successive droughts in Somalia, southeast Ethiopia, and northeast Kenya, pastoralist communities have continued to grapple with the protracted impacts of two consecutive years of drought on significant asset losses. These will continue to adversely affect agricultural production and, thus, reduce further cereal production by -4% in 2023 compared to 2022.

Weather extremes, including the passage of Cyclone Freddy in February 2023, have hit the region, affecting areas of Madagascar, Mozambique, southern Malawi, and Zimbabwe. Flooding associated with the cyclone submerged extensive agricultural areas and inflicted severe damage on crops. This has exacerbated  a slow economic recovery .

Afghanistan experienced typical La Niña effects, resulting in another poor crop season due to a substantial reduction in snowmelt and rainfall. This led to widespread acute food insecurity, particularly in the north and northeastern regions.

High food and fuel prices, together with floods and protracted conflict, have further aggravated food insecurity in Yemen, where 53% of the population were classified as in a crisis level of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 out of 5, being the former the highest level of emergency) or worse between October and December 2022

In mid-May, Cyclone Mocha made landfall in Rakhine, ranking as one of the most potent cyclones to hit the region. The effects of Cyclone Mocha, together with an intensification of conflict and record high food prices, have severely aggravated acute food insecurity, especially among the 3.4 million vulnerable people now in need of humanitarian assistance.

The return of El Niño in 2023 is expected to have adverse consequences in the entire crop cycle of maize in Central America and northern parts of South America. As of 4 September 2023, countries such as Bolivia and Colombia and in the Central America’s Dry Corridor predict El Niño’s effect on below-average rainfall causing decreased water levels across the major lakes, crop and livestock losses, and planting setbacks, whereas Ecuador forecasts suggest flood risks of damages worth USD 136 million.

Oceania is expected to experience the sharpest reduction rate on cereal production worldwide, with a 30.7% decline in 2023 compared to 2022, owing to estimations of reduced rainfall amounts that are undermining yield expectations

Combined with other drivers, the impacts of disasters and climate change can jeopardize years or even decades of development gains and threaten the attainment of most Sustainable Development Goals. Climate related shocks and stresses impacts people's livelihoods which entrenches poverty (SDG 1) and hunger (SDG 2), pose direct threats to their lives and well-being (SDG 3), widened inequality gaps (SDG 10), limited access to quality education (SDG 4), water and sanitation (SDG 6) as well as clean energy (SDG 7). Due to pre-existing gender and socio-economic inequalities compounding their vulnerabilities, women and girls are among the worst impacted (SDG 5).

Cyclone Mocha triggered mass displacement across the sub-region from Sri Lanka to Myanmar and through India and Bangladesh. It the one of the most significant weather-related disaster displacement event globally in the first half of 2023.

In July, Super Typhoon Doksuri made landfall twice in the Philippines, leading to almost 313,000 displacements. The typhoon then moved north to Taiwan and China, where a severe red alert warning was issued and over 354,000 people living in coastal areas were evacuated. This typhoon was one amongst many experienced by the Asia Pacific region in 2023, which caused China and Hong Kong SAR, China to experience the heaviest rainfall in 140 years.

Wildfires in Canada triggered thousands of evacuations. One of the most significant events was reported near the city of Yellowknife, in the Northwest Territory, where the entire population of 20,000 people was put under evacuation orders as fires approached.

Major storms in the United States caused significant floods that triggered over 88,000 displacements. Later in the year, the island of Maui in Hawaii, was hit by unprecedented wildfires which prompted the Government to issue mandatory evacuations for 7,500 people across the area.

Italy reported its highest disaster displacement figures in more than a decade, as floods and storms hit the northern region of Emilia Romagna in April. The disaster was unprecedented in the region, with 39,000 displacements reported. A week after the end of the flooding, more than 10,000 people were were able to return home while more than 23,000 people were still displaced and housed in schools, houses and gyms for the most part.

The storm wreaked havoc across the Mediterranean in early September, resulted in devastating flooding and loss of life in Libya, the worst-affected country. Displacement  estimates  for Storm Daniel indicate approximately 43,000 individuals displaced in northeastern Libya. Additionally, a substantial number of migrants were reported to be living in a low-lying area adjacent to the valley, raising concerns that the floods may have destroyed many of their settlements. Hundreds of migrants including Egyptians, Palestinians, and Sudanese were  reported  to have died.

In addition to new displacements caused by high-impact disasters in 2023, many populations are still enduring the prolonged effects of climate-related displacement that took place in previous years. A few prominent examples include the drought in the Horn of Africa, flooding in Burundi and Pakistan, and the back-to-back storms that hit Madagascar, Mozambique and Malawi in 2022.

Phenology is the study of recurring events in nature, such as when trees blossom, or birds migrate, and how these are influenced by anthropogenic climate change.

For example, flowering of cherry blossom in Japan, which has been documented since AD 801, has progressively shifted to earlier dates due to the effects of climate change and urban development. In 2021, the full flowering date was 26 March, the earliest recorded in over 1200 years.

Mountain ecosystems – the water towers of the world – are vulnerable and can be profoundly affected by climate change due to their low capacity to adapt. This may affect the 1.9 million people living in mountain areas.

Climate change may exacerbate water stress, especially in areas of decreased precipitation and where groundwater is already being depleted, affecting agricultural production, arable land, and the more than 2 billion people who are already experiencing water stress.

Substantial changes in species’ abundance and distribution may in turn affect the interactions between species. Climate change also exacerbates other threats to biodiversity.

The number of species projected to go extinct increases dramatically as global temperatures rise – and is 30% higher at 2 °C warming than at 1.5 °C warming.

Climate change is triggering the disintegration of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and increasing the chances of the Arctic Ocean being ice-free in the summer, further disrupting ocean circulation and Arctic ecosystem.