India & China Border Tensions
Case Study of Ursa Space's Persistent Change Monitoring
Radar Based Change Detection
Radar Based Change Detection (CD) is a form of change detection that uses radar imagery pairs of the same area, separated by time.
Change Detection provides users with a way to quickly compare imagery at a pixel level and determine the level of additive and subtractive change, without being constrained by time of day or cloud cover.
Change Detection Results:
Red represents subtractive change: items that were in the initial image, but gone (fled) in the second. For example, man-made objects such as ships leaving port, floating lid oil tank levels decreasing, etc.
Blue represents additive (new) change: items that were not in the initial image but appeared in the second image.
Case Study: India & China Border Tensions
Monitoring India-China Forces Along Disputed Border
The nations of India and China have contested control of the Galwan Valley for decades, both sides maintaining a presence in the region and historically observing the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
In May and June of 2020, tensions flared as an Indian patrol neared Patrol Point 14 and encountered Chinese soldiers near the LAC. According to Indian news reporting, fighting broke out and, in subsequent encounters, multiple Indian and Chinese soldiers were either injured or killed.
The skirmishes have increased tensions in the region with both sides building up forces and materials.
Objective
- Detect change at various Chinese and Indian support locations.
- Collect periodic SAR imagery to monitor if infrastructure or vehicles statuses have changed.
- With Change Detection analysis, determine if change is newly occurring or if subjects have left area.
- If possible, task higher-resolution optical or SAR satellites to verify change.
China & India Tensions Flare
In mid-May, Indian and Chinese troops clash along the Line of Actual Control, sparking a rise in tensions between the two nations. Ursa Space began monitoring the area, paying special attention to locations that could provide meaningful support.
The Galwan Valley and subject airbases.
Chinese Airbase
An airbase in the adjacent Ngari Prefecture provides a staging area for potential Chinese air support to the Galwan Valley area.
Using our catalog of SAR imagery and algorithms, we measure the amount of change present within SAR imagery over a period of several months.
March 31, 2020
Month Prior to Galwan skirmishes
By using available archived SAR imagery, we are able to establish a baseline of the airbase footprint and vehicles. The airbase remains similar to open-source archived optical imagery.
July 5, 2020
During the interceding months and build up of tensions of the region, expansion of the airbase occurred. Ursa Space is able to confidently identify new buildings and vehicles indicating a significant expansion of support capabilities.
The Detected Change
Using our Radar Based Change Detection (CD) algorithms, Ursa Space is able to confidently determine where change has occurred at this potentially important airbase. New buildings and vehicles on the runway are evident, indicating a need to begin routinely monitoring the location to verify future claims of easing or increasing tensions or posturing.
CD Results: Overlaid on original April image. Blue representing "New," red representing "Fled" (no longer present in the scene).
Visual Verification
Ursa Space's CD analytics provide an excellent situational-awareness monitoring capability, with resulting change enabling the tipping & cueing of higher-resolution SAR and Optical satellites.
Working with our partners at BlackSky, Ursa Space tasks optical imagery to provide visual verification of detected changes.
As detected in the change detection analytic, optical imagery verifies that significant construction is ongoing on the northwest side of the field. Transport aircraft are visible on the parking ramp, and base security has been increased with solid perimeter walls. These changes indicate China's continued expansion and rebalancing of the PLAAF's posture in the Tibet and border regions with China.
Sharing the Change
Ursa Space is able to confidently determine where change has occurred at this potentially important airbase and deliver it to external platforms or analysis suites.
Change Detection Results: Vectorized CD results overlaid on original open-source optical image. Blue representing "New," red representing "Fled" (no longer present in the scene).
Continuing to Monitor Change
Between March and July 2020, Ursa Space observed significant changes at the Ngari Kunsa airbase. Using updated imagery from August 22, 2020, it appears that construction is continuing at a significant pace. By using recurring images over time Ursa Space is able to observe trends in change and activity at locations.
In the new imagery, gone are the objects present on the North end of the runway. However, significant increases in the amount of new buildings are observed on the Northeast side of the runway, indicating that China is continuing with plans to expand the airbase and it's capabilities as a forward supporting airbase.
In addition to the Chinese Airbase, Ursa tracks change over time at Indian Airbases to detect new change as tensions continue to mount.
Indian Airbase - Chandigarh
In the Plains area of India, one of the larger airbases is Chandigarh Airfield, which serves as a dual-use airport with both commercial and military facilities.
May 8, 2020
Pre-Skirmish Activity Level
Ursa Space ingests imagery from May 8, 2020, of Chandigarh Airbase in the Plains of India for activity and change leading up and as a reaction to the current tensions.
July 3, 2020
Increasing Activity
Ursa Space monitors the airbase as frequently as possible using our virtual constellation.
On July 3, Ursa Space detects changes in activity on the airbase's parking ramps, likely in direct response to Indian government emergency requests for increased air support to be ready.
Observed Changes
Using these paired SAR images, Ursa observed increased activity on the parking ramps of the military portion of the airfield. These changes are likely new aircraft arriving at the airbase.
CD Results: Overlaid on original May image. Blue representing "New," red representing "Fled" (no longer present in the scene).
Sharing the Change
Ursa is able to confidently determine where change has occurred at this potentially important airbase and deliver it to external platforms or analysis suites.
Change Detection Results: Vectorized CD results overlaid on open-source optical imagery. Blue representing "New," red representing "Fled" (no longer present in the scene).
Continuing to monitor the Situation
Using recurring SAR collections, Ursa Space monitors the observed changes at Chandigarh Airbases over time, establishing an observed trend in Indian Airbase activity.
Comparing change detection activity detected between July and late August. Aircraft presence at Chandigarh Airbase appears to be slightly decreasing.
Ursa Space continues to monitor the evolving situation between India & China and track change at related facilities and locations to verify escalation or de-escalation of postures between the two nations.
Ursa Space Systems is a U.S.-based satellite intelligence company that provides business and government decision-makers access to on-demand analytic solutions. Through its radar satellite network and data fusion expertise, Ursa Space detects real-time changes in the physical world to expand transparency. The company’s subscription and custom services enable clients to access satellite imagery and analytic results with no geographic, political, or weather-related limitations.
Contact support@ursaspace.com for more information.
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