Getting a feel for your future climate

Read instructions and explanations in this left panel while you interact with the Climate Explorer website on the right.

• Scroll down in this panel to zero in on the questions you want answered.
• The first several sections help you read and understand the tool's climate graphs.
• The final sections describe short tasks that can help you get a feel for your projected future climate.

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• Click in the To get started... search field in the site on the right. ------>
• Type a city or county name, then click the location you want in the drop-down list.
• Click the Climate Graphs card.

For the county you selected, the default graph shows Average Daily Maximum Temperature (°F), the average of all maximum temperatures of the year.

• The gray, red, and blue bands show temperatures calculated by global climate models. Dark gray bars show observations from weather and climate stations. 
• The red and blue bands show climate projections—scientific predictions for the future—of how maximum daily temperature will change over the next several decades.
• The rising trend of the red and blue bands show that maximum daily temperatures are projected to get warmer throughout this century.

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• Click the main dropdown menu (the one labeled Average Daily Maximum Temperature) to see the full list of variables you can explore.
• Roll your cursor over the ? icons to see information about any variable.

No single climate model can accurately predict future climate conditions at all locations. Rather, the most successful predictions of future conditions are obtained by considering the range of results from many climate models that all ran the same experiment. The wide bands in these graphs represent the full range of results from a group of climate models.

As shown above, we display the full set of individual climate model results as a single band of color. At each time step, the top and bottom edges of the band define the full range of projections.

Each of the three colors show the result of a different set of climate model experiments:

One way to think of the two possible futures is to consider the red band as the worst case scenario for the future and the blue band as the best case scenario. Of course, actual future conditions may be above, between, or below projections shown for the two scenarios.

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• Move your cursor along the timeline and check the data popup to read projections for Higher and/or Lower Emissions. Click to pin the popup box.
• Below the graph, you can toggle the legend buttons on or off to simplify the graph.

Scroll down for a plain-language description of what the numbers in the data readout mean for Maricopa County, Arizona.

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• Below the graph, click the legend buttons on or off so that only the Observations are showing.

Each dark gray bar shows the observed average of the variable you selected for a single year. Each yearly average was calculated from observations—temperature and precipitation measurements made at weather and climate stations across the county you selected.

• The flat dashed line that crosses the graph represents the average of all observations for this variable from 1961 to 1990.
• Bars that extend above the dashed line show years that were above the long-term average.
• Bars that drop below the line show years that were below average. 
• The height of the dashed line gives a good sense of the "usual" conditions for this variable late in the last century.

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• Place your cursor over any dark bar and check the results in the data readout box. For example, read the number below "1977 Observed" to find the observed average for that year.
• Find the years with the highest and lowest observed averages.
  • What year had the highest observed average? How high was it?
  • What year had the lowest observed average? What was the observed average for that year?
• Does the pattern of dark gray bars show a trend? In other words, does it look like observed temperatures have been going up, staying about the same, or going down over time? 

Though additional years of observations have been made by now, 2013 is the last year of observed conditions displayed this tool. The gridded dataset used a specific, consistent protocol to interpolate values for locations between climate stations. Updated data have not been processed for display in the Climate Explorer.  Learn more about the observed data in Climate Explorer. 

For more recent temperature and precipitation observations, check NOAA's  Climate at a Glance tool . Be aware, however, that the documented protocols for calculating average values the Climate Explorer and Climate at a Glance vary slightly. Trends over time will be very similar, but values will not match exactly.

We don't know how human reliance on fossil fuels will change over this century, so we show the results for two scenarios.

The red bands show what the future might be like if humans allow exhaust from burning fossil fuels to continue increasing through this century. This Higher Emissions future assumes that people will not make substantial efforts to reduce the growing abundance of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere.

The blue band shows conditions we could see if humans significantly reduce emissions of heat-trapping gases in the near future. Achieving this Lower Emissions future would require humans to reduce emissions to zero by around 2040, and then invent ways to remove large amounts of heat-trapping gases from the atmosphere.

Discuss with a friend »

• Which of the two futures shown in these graphs—Higher Emissions or Lower Emissions—do you think is most likely to occur over this century? Why?
• What do you think people could do to get the best outcome?

The skill of climate models—their ability to make accurate future projections—can be tested by checking how well they can reproduce observed conditions. This "backtesting" or "hindcasting" process is used to refine climate models. If models can simulate what actually happened in the past, their projections for the future are also likely to be valid.

To get a sense of climate model skill in Climate Explorer's graphs, check if most of the year-to-year observations (the dark gray bars) for a climate variable are within the light gray band of its modeled history.

• If most of the observations are within the envelope of modeled history, the models can be considered skillful for that variable at that location.
• If many of the observed conditions are outside of the modeled history, the models are not as skillful for that variable at that location.

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• If needed, click legend icons below the graph to turn on Observations and Modeled History in the graph. Check to see if most of the observations are within the light gray band.​
• Use the main drop-down menu to select another variable...
• Explore how observations and modeled history align for temperature variables compared to how they align for precipitation variables. Based on their ability to simulate past conditions, do climate models appear to be more skillful at projecting temperature or precipitation?

Differences in modeled history and observations between temperature and precipitation variables show that global climate models are simply not as skillful at projecting outcomes for precipitation as they are for temperature. This reflects the fundamental differences between temperature and precipitation and the difficulty of accurately representing precipitation processes in mathematical equations.

How many uncomfortably warm or hot days did your location experience during the late 1900s? How might that number change by the late 2000s?

Gather this information from the Climate Explorer, and then plug it into the story template below.

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• For any location you choose, select Days w/ maximum temp > 90°F from the dropdown menu.
• On average, how many days over 90°F did the location experience in the late 1900s? (the 1961-1990 observed average).
• If the Higher Emissions future occurs, about how many days over 90°F are projected for this location in the 2050s? What about in the 2090s?
• Use the story template below to tell the story of hot days in your location. Replace each bracketed phrase with your reading from the graph.
• You can check other variables and modify the story template to tell additional climate stories.

Story template:

Late last century, [county name] County had about [1961-1990 observed average] days per year when the temperature reached 90°F or higher. If emissions of heat-trapping gases continue increasing, the county is projected to see around [2050s projection for higher emissions] hot days per year in the middle of this century, and about [2090s projection for higher emissions] hot days per year at the end of the century.

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• On any Climate Charts page, click the main drop-down menu and explore other climate variables.
• For the variable you choose, check the observed average in the late 1900s, and compare that to projections for the 2050s and the 2090s for one or both possible futures.
• Summarize what you find in a couple sentences.

Would you rather get information from a map than a graph? The Climate Maps card gives you a split-map viewer to visually compare past and projected future conditions in color-coded maps.

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• From the Home page, enter a location, or click Cards Home.
• Click the Climate Maps card, and select a variable of interest.
• Check the legend/color scale to understand what the colors on the map mean.
• At the bottom of the split map viewer, set the right and left drop-down menus and time sliders to select the conditions you want to compare. 
• Slide the swiper back and forth to visually compare the maps.
• Click any county for a summary popup box.

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• From Cards Home, select Historical Weather Data, and then click a station of interest.

These graphs show how daily observations (weather) at local weather stations compare to their 30-year averages (climate) from 1981-2010. Combining weather and climate in a single graphic helps show where daily temperature and precipitation differ from their long-term patterns.

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• Click Home and enter a new location, or click Cards Home. 
• Click the Historical Weather Data card. 
• Select a station on the map and view the graphs.
• Click the About button for explanations and tips on panning and zooming the display. Pan to the left to display several years of data.
• Look for periods when daily temperatures were well above or well below the long term average. If you suspect you've found a multi-day cold snap or heat wave, you may want to note the date and search local news sites or past weather sites to identify the event.
• In the precipitation graphs, you can identify dates when relatively large amounts of rain or snow fell by the steep, vertical portions of the blue area. You may find this pattern in locations that have experienced landfalling tropical storms or hurricanes.
• Periods where the blue fill doesn't reach the black line of the precipitation graph were drier than normal. You may want to check the drought status of the location for the dates you found in the  U.S. Drought Monitor .

The following examples can help you understand what it means to exceed a threshold:

• When temperatures rise above 100°F for 5 days in a row, people and livestock can experience heat illness.

• If an area receives 3 or more inches of rain in one day, flooding may damage property.

In these examples, phrases such as 100°F for 5 days and 3 or more inches of rain in one day are "thresholds." They describe an intensity or amount that, if crossed, can result in damage.

Examining the number of times conditions have reached or gone over these thresholds (a measure we call exceedance) can help you estimate how likely it is that such an event will occur again.

Being aware of the thresholds at which you or your assets may be injured—and the likelihood of these thresholds being crossed—can help you be prepared to seek protection.

Try this »

• Click Home and enter a new location, or click Cards Home.
• Click the Historical Thresholds card and select a station on the map.
• Choose Precipitation, or Average Temperature, Maximum Temperature, or Minimum Temperature from the drop-down menu.
• Enter a threshold value of interest—the temperature or amount of precipitation you think could result in damage.
• Optionally, set the duration of a time "window" to check for consecutive days with temperatures above the threshold, or the number of days for precipitation to accumulate to the threshold.
• Explore the graph: refine your selections to look for any trend in these events over time.

High-tide flooding occurs when ocean water spills onto coastal land, reaching a level that can cause damage. For 90 coastal tide gauges around the country, you can see how many days per year such flooding has occurred since 1950. Graphs also show how often these events are projected to occur through 2100 under two possible emissions futures.

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• Click Home and enter a coastal location, or click Cards Home.
• Click the High-Tide Flooding card and then select a station on the map.
• Roll your cursor along the x-axis to view numbers of days with high-tide flooding in the past, and projections for the future under two scenarios.
• Click Historical for a graph showing the number of days per year when high-tide floods occurred at the station. Click Historical & Modeled to see projections for future years.
• For the location you selected: If humans follow the Higher Emissions future this century, which decade is high-tide flooding projected to begin occurring every day of the year? 

Try this »

• Click About the data in the upper right of the main Climate Explorer window.
  • Looking for definitions related to the Climate Explorer? Select the Glossary.
  • Want more information about the tool or data? Look under About.
  • Have a question someone else may have asked? Look through the FAQ.

Want to send a comment or question to the Climate Explorer team?  Email us at   noaa.toolkit@noaa.gov.