Little Havana: The Story Behind Florida's Electoral Shift

Our project sought to look into the reasons behind the recent and drastic shifts in Florida's electoral politics, particularly amongst voters who identify as Cuban American. In the last two election cycles, the Democratic Party and its candidates have been swept aside in Florida, even as Democrats have fared decently well nationwide and in other states. For instance, the 2022 midterms saw the Democratic Party retain control of the U.S. Senate and minimize their losses in the U.S. House of Representatives. Yet, Florida turned out to be disastrous for them as Republican incumbents, particularly Gov. Ron DeSantis & Sen. Marco Rubio, cruised to landslide victories over their Democratic opponents.

These shifts in voting patterns have been especially pronounced in the predominantly Hispanic parts of the state, such as Miami-Dade County. Explanations for this drastic shift have often linked Republicans’ success with Hispanic voters to their aggressive anti-socialist rhetoric and hardline stances towards countries like Cuba, which may have appealed to Cuban American voters. 

This project sought to investigate the impact level of socioeconomic factors in the recently observed voting patterns of Hispanic voters in Miami. In particular, we looked to address the following sub-topics within our central research question;

• How do Hispanics in Miami think the local economy has fared under both Republican and Democratic leadership?
• What are some general beliefs that Hispanics in Miami hold regarding the economic policies of the two major parties?
• Is the observed rightward shift in Miami’s Hispanic population caused mainly by anti-socialist rhetoric or by real-world policy actions taken by either party?
• How much of a role has Trumpism and its rise played in these observed electoral trends amongst Hispanics in Miami?

To address these questions, we embarked on a multi-faceted field excursion. To begin with, we visited the American Museum of The Cuban Diaspora. Aside from seeing the contributions of the Cuban American community in the field of architecture through the "Ysrael Abraham Seinuk: Stretching the Horizon" exhibit, we were able to interview a handful of museum attendees who are part of the Cuban American community.

In their responses, a common theme that we spotted was that they felt ignored and betrayed by the Democratic Party. For instance, one respondent, who fled Cuba decades ago in fear of political persecution, was particularly irked by former President Obama's decision to soften relations with Cuba and its socialist regime.

Next, we visited Little Havana, where we visited the Bay of Pigs Monument and conversed with people there. Here, respondents' sentiments around politics and elections were more restrained as there was a lack of interest in the subject. One small-business owner who has operated a Cuban restaurant in Little Havana for years was of the opinion that she would support any political candidate who advocates for lower regulations on the restaurant industry. However, she was not informed about the specific policies that either the Democratic or Republican parties stand for.

We also interviewed locals at Miami Beach, hoping to get responses from somewhat younger respondents. Most of the interviewees were not too familiar with key political figures on either side of the aisle. Nonetheless, some reforms that respondents were generally in favor of included; governmental support for small-business owners reeling from the impacts of inflation, legalization of recreational marijuana, and more stringent gun-control laws.

An interesting observation that we came across was the tendency of many respondents to bring up former President Trump in their answers. In fact, multiple respondents cited that their political leanings were defined by their opinion on Trump and his performance as President. This level of name recognition for a non-incumbent politician came across as a surprise for us and is certainly worth exploring further. On the contrary, Gov. Ron DeSantis, a prospective 2024 Republican presidential candidate, had significantly less name recognition in his home state, particularly amongst younger respondents.

Our visit to the Art Deco Museum in Miami Beach gave us insight into the role of communications in local politics, from both a historical and contemporary context. Here, we learned about the birth of the radio industry in Miami and how its growth has continued to exert a significant level of influence on Florida's politics.

To bolster our understanding of how the world of academia sees these political shifts, we visited the University of Miami campus in Coral Gables, Florida. Here, we indulged in conversations with students about the state of political affairs in their city. Many students blamed the organizational failures and shortcomings of the Florida Democratic Party for the 'red-shift' in Florida's electoral outcomes. Respondents backed up their claims by citing how the number of registered Republicans in the state has only recently overtaken the number of registered Democrats, a reality that suggests a lot more grassroots organizational efforts are required from the Florida Democratic Party.

Lastly, we visited the Wynwood district in Miami where we came across several murals that, to some extent, were a form of political messaging. In particular, we saw many murals that could be considered to be artistic depictions of capitalism. Here, the intriguing part was that they could be interpreted as both mockery and endorsements for the capitalist system.

When we asked respondents about their opinions on capitalism as a form of social order, most respondents had a positive outlook on it, with a few expressing some reservations. These reactions from a relatively young crowd of respondents went against general demographic trends and beliefs and certainly warrant further scholastic inquisition.

In conclusion, putting together all of our observations and findings gives us one big takeaway; Miami is not like every other urban metropolis. To win politically in Miami, political entities, and in this case, the Democratic Party, cannot afford to treat certain voting groups as monoliths and must adapt according to their localized opinions. To arrest the Democratic Party's rapid decline in a crucial state, significant policy-level changes are the need of the hour and, for this overhaul to be effective, all changes must be spearheaded by local leaders and community members.