COVID-19 Impact on Indiana Businesses

On Friday March 6, 2020, Indiana announced its  first identified case of COVID-19 . On March 19, Governor Holcomb asked schools to close. On Monday March 23, 2020, Gov. Holcomb  ordered Hoosiers to shelter in place  starting on March 25. In-person dining was prohibited and non-essential business had to close. On May 4, 2020,  some businesses were able to reopen in 89 of Indiana's 92 counties . While the shelter-in-place order was put in place to slow the spreads of the coronavirus in Indiana and protect our most vulnerable populations from the disease, the order had a significant impact on businesses. In this Story Map, we provide an analysis of the impact on various types of businesses and geographies.

Thanks to data made available by  SafeGraph , the Polis Center analyzed the number of visits to specific types of businesses in Indiana and Central Indiana. The number of visits were analyzed on a weekly basis, starting with the week starting on March 1. This week predates Governor Holcomb's shelter in place order and the first case was announced at the end of this week.

What is striking about the data is that Hoosiers started practicing social distancing well before any official shelter in place order. There was a clear decrease in visits the second and especially the third week of March, before the shelter in place order was announced on March 23 and effective on March 25. The last three weeks of April show a small increase in visits prior to most of the state entering stage 2 of the reopening.

Prior to the shelter in place order, grocery stores experienced a rise in visits, followed by a subsequent decline. This decline, however, is much smaller compared to the other businesses shown in the chart. Personal care services and restaurants fared slightly better than hotels, fitness centers, clothing stores, and entertainment & recreation businesses. Towards the end of April and early May, restaurants, clothing stores, and personal care services experienced a small rise in visits.

The effect of the lockdown on restaurants has varied by county within the state. Switzerland County saw the largest decrease in restaurant visits from the week of March 1 to the week of May 3. The week of March 22, it saw an 85% decline in restaurant visits. Miami and Fulton counties saw the smallest decrease in restaurant visits. Both saw a 45% reduction in restaurant visits the week of March 22.

The chart below shows how restaurant visits varied in Central Indiana counties. Overall, Hamilton County saw the largest decrease in visits from mid-March to late April while Shelby County saw the least. All 9 counties, however, experienced significant drops.

The impact on restaurants can vary significantly by neighborhood. The map below shows the maximum decrease in restaurant visits on a weekly basis by Indianapolis neighborhood. The Traders Point and Butler-Tarkington/Rocky Ripple neighborhoods both saw a 92% and 93% decrease in visits to restaurants respectively the week of April 12. On the other hand, the Mapleton/Fall Creek and Clermont neighborhoods saw the least decrease in restaurant visits. The Mapleton/Fall Creek neighborhood experienced a 22% decrease the week of March 15 and the Clermont neighborhood had at most a 26% decrease the week of April 12.

In the chart below, one can see that restaurants in the downtown Indianapolis area have had significantly less visits than restaurants along US-31 South near the Marion County/Johnson County border. This makes intuitive sense considering that the downtown area most likely has more visits associated with conventions and downtown office buildings.

In terms of visits, Indiana grocery stores have weathered the storm better than most businesses. There are, however, notable differences in the number of visits by chain. As shown in the chart below, Costco and Target both experienced a more significant drop in visits compared to Meijer, Kroger, Aldi, and Walmart. Target had a significant rebound in the number of visits in the first week of May while Costco remained below its total visits compared to the first week of March.

Not only do we see an increase in visits to these six large chains prior to the lockdown, we also see variations in the times Hoosiers did their grocery shopping. The chart below shows the number of visits to these stores for each hour of the day. The chart includes data for every other week starting the week of March 1, 2020. Before the lockdown, Hoosiers did a significant amount of shopping right before and right after dinner. Once the lockdown was in place, however, these peaks in visitors almost completely disappeared. Notice as well that right before the week before that the shelter in place order went into effect, and the week after, there was an increase in the early morning hours.

Soon after the shelter in place order became effective, grocery stores limited their hours to allow for deep cleaning and stocking at night. The following charts show how the number of visitors each week changed when they visited. Some stores, like Aldi and Costo, were not open 24/7. Others, like Meijer and Walmart tended to be open 24/7 prior to the lockdown but significantly reduced their hours after the lockdown began. However, based on this data, it is not clear that this had much impact on the number of visitors during the day. What is notable, is the jump in shoppers between midnight and 6AM at Meijer and Walmart in early March, prior to Governor Holcomb ordering Hoosiers to shelter in place. Note that the lack of change in night-time visitors may be due to increased staffing at night as it is not possible to differentiate between shoppers and employees on an hourly basis.

The following NAICS codes were used:

• Restaurants and other eating places: 722511, 722513, 722514, 722515
• Grocery Stores: 445110, 445120 (Note: Target is classified as 452210 and Walmart and Costco are classified as 452319, subcategories of NAICS code 452 - Department Stores. These brands are not included in the generic Grocery Stores category.)
• Fitness and Recreational Sports Centers: 713940
• Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores: 448110, 448120, 448130, 448140, 448150, 448190
• Traveler Accommodation: 721110, 721120, 721191, 721199
• Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation: 711110, 711120, 711130, 711190, 711211, 711212, 711219, 711310, 711320, 711410, 711510, 712110, 712120, 712130, 712190
• Personal Care Services: 812111, 812112, 812113, 81219, 812191, 812199