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Improvements in Forecasting Weather, Floods, and Hurricanes
Overview Report on Supplemental Program FY18
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Weather and climate disasters are proving increasingly costly to humankind. In the United States, weather and climate disasters eclipsed $250 billion in damages 8 out of the last 10 years. In 2020 alone, the U.S. had a record 22 separate disasters of at least $1 billion each, breaking the old record of 16 such events. In an on-going effort to curb the cost to life and property, the U.S. Congress took action by passing PUBLIC LAW 115–123 , FEB. 9, 2018, which states “Pursuant to section 703 of the Public Works and Economic Development Act (42 U.S.C. 3233), for an additional amount for ‘‘Economic Development Assistance Programs’’ for necessary expenses related to flood mitigation, disaster relief, long-term recovery, and restoration of infrastructure in areas that received a major disaster designation as a result of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria, and of wildfires and other natural disasters occurring in calendar year 2017 for an amount for ‘‘Operations, Research, and Facilities’’ for necessary expenses related to the consequences of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria, $120,904,000, to remain available until September 30, 2019, as follows:
- $12,904,000 for repair and replacement of observing assets, Federal real property, and equipment.
- $18,000,000 for marine debris assessment and removal.
- $40,000,000 for mapping, charting, and geodesy services.
- $50,000,000 to improve weather forecasting, hurricane intensity forecasting and flood forecasting and mitigation capabilities, including data assimilation from ocean observing platforms and satellites.
This document will provide an overview of the $50 M described in (4) collectively known as the Improving Forecasting and Assimilation (IFAA) Portfolio. The Weather Program Office (at NOAA Headquarters) takes the lead in organizing and managing this effort, which ensures stewardship, accountability and results of the World-class scientists that are researching 27 separate projects over a 5 year period, ending by June 2024. Many of these IFAA projects leverage the Unified Forecasting System (UFS) framework for research to operations transitions, a mission critical for NOAA. This document will be revised as additional results become available.
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Below are links to each section of the report, including a breakdown of spending for the IFAA portfolio, a map of partner organizations, 4 IFAA research focus areas (consisting of 27 projects and 93 sub-projects), 3 vignettes, or short summaries, of selected research projects, and the report conclusion.
- FY18 Financial Breakdown
- Partner Organizations
- Research Focus Area Summaries
- Vignette #1 - The Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System (HAFS)
- Vignette #2 - Accelerate Improvements in Predictions of Extreme Precipitation
- Vignette #3 - Accelerating the Development of Future Data Assimilation Infrastructure for Regional and Global Forecasting: Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI)
- Conclusion
Financial Breakdown
Partner Organizations
Map of IFAA Partner Organizations
The IFAA portfolio of the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 (Disaster Related Appropriation Supplemental (DRAS)) consists of 27 projects and 93 sub-projects across 4 focus areas:
1) Accelerate Improvements in Weather Forecasting has 8 projects emphasizing improvements in extreme precipitation, model physics, forecaster situational awareness and model initialization, along with enhancing Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS) systems and Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) elements related to severe weather prediction, and advancing more effective weather forecast and social science communications. Some of the projects within this focus area, such as the development of unified infrastructure, moving nests and ensemble prediction systems in the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core (FV3) stand alone regional model, complement other NOAA wide research efforts.
- The historic 2019 U.S. inland flooding underscores the importance of the advancement of extreme precipitation forecasting. Extreme precipitation can lead to flash flooding and has a major impact on life, property, and the economy. Better weather prediction alleviates these impacts. Advances in model physics and the model suite is ultimately improving operational forecasts. For MRMS, a specific goal is to become "the world's most advanced system for severe weather and storm-scale hydrometeorology (water cycle in the atmosphere). For the NGGPS, improvements are sought in regional severe weather and tropical cyclone forecasting through efficient use of computing resources around areas that need immediate analysis (nested areas). For both the MRMS and the NGGPS, forecasters will be able to produce “the most” reliable analyses.
2) Accelerate Improvements in Flood Forecasting & Mitigation covers 5 projects with integration and/or coupling with several operational models, including the National Water Model (NWM), the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and the Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (ESTOFS). These 5 projects allow for dissemination of new and improved data and formation, along with mapping of flood inundation areas. Flooding continues to have major impacts on communities with loss of life and property, along with serious ramifications to our economy and environment, such as habitat loss, erosion, pollutants, etc. Through model improvements and model coupling of both atmosphere and ocean models, better forecasts will lead to better preparation and reduce the loss of life and property. These projects also place an emphasis on better dissemination of flood forecasting through ease of access, including public websites.
3) Accelerate Improvements in Hurricane Intensity Forecasting consists of 7 projects. A primary goal among these projects is improved hurricane track and intensity forecasts. This is done in a variety of ways - by updating the Hurricane Forecasting Improvement Project (HFIP), by providing a moving nest within global models as part of engineering efforts of the Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System (HAFS), by improving both Storm Surge forecasting and National Hurricane Center (NHC) Forecast Techniques, and by deployment of next generation in-situ measurement systems such as sustained ocean observations (gliders, etc.). Monitoring and collection of ocean data, down to 100 feet below the ocean surface, in specific areas ahead of tropical cyclones for temperature and salinity profiles, has been identified as crucial for hurricane forecasting. Longer lead times in hurricane forecasting will reduce loss of life. HFIP seeks to do that by achieving the same level of forecast accuracy at 7 days as it has at 5 days. This improved guidance is critical for decision making by Emergency Managers and others. Progress is also being made in forecasting the Accumulative Cyclone Energy (ACE) with greater accuracy and for longer time periods. A concerted effort is being made in the forecasting of Rapid Intensification (RI). Both HAFS and HFIP are addressing RI, along with risk communication and decision making. In addition, the HAFS is NOAA’s next generation multi-scale numerical analysis and data assimilation package. Storm surge is the greatest threat to life and property from hurricanes and tropical systems. This rise in sea level that penetrates inland is often misunderstood by the general public. Social science projects are poised to make major improvements in specifying risk to the public.
4) Accelerate Data Assimilations from Observations to Improving Forecasting encompasses 7 research projects that improve data monitoring. Included in this work is the reduction in erroneous forecasts through a rigorous analysis of model physics, optimization of current observation systems to improve extreme weather prediction, and the development of the Joint Effort for Data Assimilation Integration (JEDI) infrastructure. Other cross-cutting benefits of these research projects include contributions to Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) projects and to Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) projects. Research within this focus area provides improved input data for models which leads to better forecasts. Improved forecasts allow stakeholders to disseminate more accurate information which leads to more informed decisions to help mitigate the loss of life and property. The development of the JEDI infrastructure is in operational use by the National Weather Service (NWS) and is improving Research to Operations and Operations to Research (R2O/O2R). Some research projects assess the impact of Observing System Experiments (OSE) and Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) methodology within the HAFS. By optimally assimilating atmospheric and oceanic observations continued improvement in hurricane analysis and forecasts is expected. This effort will achieve a 7 day lead time and more skillful guidance on hurricane track, Rapid Intensification (RI), storm surge, rainfall rate, and tornadoes associated with hurricanes.
Optimally assimilating atmospheric and oceanic observations improve TC forecasts by providing more reliable operational analysis and forecasts with 7 day lead time, more skillful guidance on TC track and RI, storm surge, rainfall rate, and tornadoes associated with TCs.
The following 3 short summaries/vignettes are a sample of the research projects that comprise the FY18 Supplemental Program portfolio. For a complete list of all 27 projects please use this link: Complete list of FY18 Projects
Vignette #1 - The Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System (HAFS)
The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season was especially active. Thirty named storms forced the NHC to exhaust its regular list of named storms and utilize the Greek alphabet. The season began early when Tropical Storm Arthur formed on May 14th, more than two weeks before the Atlantic hurricane season officially began. From that point on, the hurricane season ramped up quickly and broke records across the board. This record-breaking season underscores the importance of accurate hurricane forecasting. Imperative to increased forecasting skill for hurricanes is the development of the Hurricane Forecast Analysis System or HAFS. To accelerate improvements in hurricane forecasting, this project has the following goals:
1) To improve the HAFS. The HAFS is NOAA’s next-generation multi-scale numerical model, with data assimilation package and ocean coupling, which will provide an operational analysis and forecast out to seven days, with reliable and skillful guidance on hurricane track and intensity (including rapid intensification), storm size, genesis, storm surge, rainfall and tornadoes associated with hurricanes.
An overview of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season showing number of named storms, the number of major storms, NOAA hurricane hunter missions, and observations gathered by NOAA underwater hurricane gliders.
2) To integrate into the Unified Forecasting System(UFS). The UFS is a community-based, coupled comprehensive Earth system modeling system whose numerical applications span local to global domains and predictive time scales from sub-hourly analyses to seasonal predictions. It is designed to support the Weather Enterprise and to be the source system for NOAA's operational numerical weather prediction applications. The HAFS will be a part of UFS geared for hurricane model applications and is expected to be used operationally by NHC starting with the 2023 hurricane season. HAFS comprises five major components: (a) High-resolution moving nest (b) High-resolution physics (c) Multi-scale data assimilation (DA) (d) 3D ocean coupling, and (e) Observations to support the DA.
Vignette #2 - Accelerate Improvements in Predictions of Extreme Precipitation
An extreme rainfall event led to flash flooding in Ellicott City, Maryland, in 2018 ( image credit: NOAA ).
As current trends in extreme rainfall events continue to rise, the associated destruction from extreme precipitation events escalates as well. The aforementioned events highlight that improved forecasting tools and deliverables are imperative for saving lives and alleviating structural damage. To accelerate the improvements in extreme precipitation prediction, three goals are quickly advancing towards completion:
1) “To expand and improve the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) and Weather Forecast Office (WFO) heavy rainfall products and services”
2) “Implement automated tools to interrogate available deterministic and ensemble model guidance into concise hazard guidance for extreme precipitation”
3) “Ensure 5% improvement in heavy precipitation forecasts from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) FV3 system by 2022, based on 2017 baseline”
Vignette #3 - Accelerating the Development of Future Data Assimilation Infrastructure for Regional and Global Forecasting: Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI)
Observations used by weather prediction models come from a variety of sources including radar, ground weather stations, buoys, ships, aerial systems, and numerous satellite instruments. Since the launch of the first successful environmental satellite, Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS-1) in 1960, scientists have continuously monitored the earth system on a global scale. As the number of environmental satellites have increased -- there are currently more than 150 in orbit -- and earth observing systems have become more advanced, data quality and volume have greatly increased over time. It’s important that researchers and scientists have the resources and infrastructure that allows them to efficiently utilize as much of that incoming data as possible through data assimilation (DA) to improve weather forecasts. The development of JEDI is imperative for efficient DA and a comprehensive representation of the Earth-atmosphere system.
JEDI is a unified, agile, and versatile DA framework that is being developed to improve the quality of earth system initial conditions and concomitant forecast accuracy. JEDI, which is a collaborative effort across multiple partner agencies through the JCSDA, provides a common DA and development framework for scientists to use and is scheduled to be the next generation DA system for the NOAA UFS. JEDI consists of operational DA algorithms and supports the exploration and development of new DA algorithms. To accelerate DA of observations to improve forecasting, this project seeks to achieve the following objectives:
1) Accelerate transitions of research and development for assimilating new, more advanced satellite measurements.
2) Accelerate and Improve the development of the Unified Forward Operator (UFO) for JEDI.
The Unified Forward Operator (UFO) enables the comparison between model forecasts and observations, which is essential for DA and vital for accurate predictions of the Earth system. The function of UFO is to represent the relationship between what's observed and what's modeled so that observational data can be used to improve model forecasts. UFO facilitates the ability to easily compare and evaluate different methods and algorithms, which allow researchers and scientists to avoid duplicating development work across various agencies. It also promotes proper model evaluation and validation against satellite observations. The further development of UFO will allow JEDI to more efficiently assimilate the rapidly growing volume of observational data from new instruments, especially satellites, for observational use.
The May 2020 release of the Near Real-Time (NRT) Observation Monitoring application was a big accomplishment in UFO. NRT obtains, converts, processes, plots, and presents data from various observation sources. This permits JCSDA to routinely ingest observations for all operational instruments at NOAA. This advancement accelerates the observational use of satellite observations within NWS.
Below are several examples of JEDI NRT Observation monitoring animated plots. All observations come from NOAA as part of routine operational processing. The observations below are for a 6 hour interval from the space-based Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), the space-based Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI), ship observations, and surface observations.
Top Left: Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), Top Right: Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) MetOp-B, Bottom Left: Ship Observations, Bottom Right: Surface Observations
3) Enhance satellite data simulation.
Over the last 40 years, the number of earth observing satellites have increased and become progressively more advanced, producing increased volume and better quality of data. These satellites, many of which collect radiance measurements across select segments of the electromagnetic spectrum, are impacted in myriad ways by various aerosol types (i.e. smoke, dust, volcanic ash,) and gaseous species in the atmosphere. Aerosols influence air quality, impact cloud formation, and scatter and absorb infrared and visible radiation and thus play an important role in weather and climate.
Accurate and comprehensive radiance simulations that include the impact of aerosols are essential for satellite-based retrievals and DA. Currently, there are a limited number of aerosol and gaseous species in the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM), preventing the production of comprehensive atmospheric simulations. This project will accelerate improvements to CRTM by expanding aerosol physical and radiative specifications and gaseous species within the model, allowing for improved shortwave infrared simulations. These enhancements will support the acceleration of aerosol optical depth DA, resulting in improved air quality and weather forecasts.
4) Accelerate development of the UFO for sea ice, ocean, and coupled data assimilation (SOCA).
5) Expand JEDI components to include land-hydrology DA.
Conclusion
The research enabled by the Supplemental Program is being conducted by NOAA and its partners and will deliver improved forecasts and responses to weather, hurricane, and flood extreme events. Increasing trends in impacts to our safety and economy by environmental disasters underscore the critical need for this work.
From 2010 through 2020, there were 141 weather and climate events in the U.S. with losses exceeding $1 billion each. These events resulted in more than $800 billion in direct losses and included tropical cyclones, severe local storms, winter storms, inland floods, crop freezes, droughts, and wildfires. This is a notable increase over the previous decade, which saw 62 billion--dollar--events and totaled more than $500 billion in direct losses.
The results of this work will lead to better forecasts, warnings, and watches that help protect our lives, property, and the economy. This will further NOAA's mission of science discoveries and a new understanding of the oceans and atmosphere. Science provides the foundation and future promise of service and stewardship, important elements of NOAA’s mission.