The Great Vermont Flood of 2023

Vermont is an inland state but it is home to a wealth of water resources, including the Connecticut River and Lake Champlain, and many mountainous areas. Most of the State experienced flash floods and riverine flooding in what is known as the Great Vermont Flood in July 2023. Numerous communities were flooded and experienced catastrophic damages, including mudslides as well as roads and bridges being washed away. The heaviest rainfall was from July 10 to 11th with precipitation varying from 3 to 8 inches across the State over that 48 hour period. The communities along the Green Mountains were hit the hardest with rainfall and had extensive damages. The Great Vermont Flood had an equal or greater impact across many parts of the State than Tropical Storm Irene did in August 2011. Over the past century, only the Great Flood of November 1927 has exceeded the damages of Tropical Storm Irene and the 2023 Great Vermont Flood. Climate change is causing an increase in severe flooding events, so it is imperative for communities in Vermont to sufficiently prepare for and adapt to the impacts using appropriate floodplain management and hazard mitigation strategies. This is a critical point for Vermont to build on the momentum of the flooding impacts and adopt new policies and strategies for improved resilience.

The Great Vermont Food occurred from July 10-11, 2023 after a severe storm unleashed 6 to 9 inches of rainfall over many areas throughout Vermont. Although rainfall amounts varied between towns, these totals occurred in only a 48-hour period so the storm caused major flooding impacts. All 14 counties in the state were impacted by this storm.

The flooding caused 2 fatalities and catastrophic damages across the state. Over 800 businesses and 4,000 homes reported damages from the storm, although officials estimate that actual totals are higher.

The storm not only impacted the State of Vermont but also New York and other parts of New England and Canada.

Vermont is home to many mountains and rivers, including the Connecticut River, and also Lake Champlain. Montpelier, the capital, is located towards the central part of the state.

The highest amounts of rainfall were reported in communities along the Green Mountains, which are part of the northern range of the Appalachian Mountains and run up through the state of Vermont. This unique geography and topography leads to a greater risk of landslides and erosion during extreme storms.

The Great Vermont Flood broke records for many communities. For example, the airport in Montpelier experienced 5.28" of rainfall, its highest total for a calendar day since records began in 1948. The July monthly rainfall in Montpelier also broke the previous record from August 1989, topping it at 12.06" of rain.

The town with the highest 48-hour precipitation total of 9.20 inches was Calais, Vermont, which is located just north of Montpelier, the state capital. This area experienced heavy flooding, especially in Downtown Montpelier where the water was waist-high.

The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) administers the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and maintains maps of the Special Flood Hazard Areas and other areas prone to flooding across the country. These FEMA Flood Maps are used to determine flood risk and analyze base flood elevations and other data useful for building construction. Homes and businesses in high-risk flooding areas are required to obtain flood insurance if they have a federally-backed mortgage.

Most of the buildings in the City of Montpelier are located in the Flood Zone AE, which is part of the 100-year floodplain. As shown in previous images, numerous building in the Flood Zone AE area (particularly along Main Street in Downtown Montpelier) were heavily flooded during the Great Vermont Flood of 2023. Buildings beyond this in the 500-year floodplain (Zone X) and in the Area of Minimal Flood Hazard (beyond the 500-year floodplain) also flooded as well. This shows that many properties in the 100-year and 500-year floodplains were flooded and some were flooded beyond those zones. Montpelier is one example of cities and towns across the state that were hit hard by the Great Flood of 2023. This example highlights how many damages can occur when we underestimate flood risk and do not adequately prepare for extreme weather or flooding events. It shows why flood insurance is important, especially as climate change will continue to get worse and Vermont will potentially face more frequent severe flooding events.

Over 100 state and federal highway roads were closed because of the flooding and damages. The Vermont Department of Transportation worked hard to quickly repair and reopen these roads, even to just one-way traffic, in order to allow for vehicular travel. Some roadways had sections that were entirely washed away, crumbled, or covered with mud after the Great Flood of 2023.

More data and maps for the Great Vermont Flood of 2023 and its impacts can be found at the following sources:

The Great Vermont Flood of 2023 is not the only time the state has experienced a significant weather and flooding event. There have been two other major historic floods: the Flood of 1927 and Tropical Storm Irene in 2011. These caused significant damages and, therefore, were turning points in Vermont's history of infrastructure development and floodplain management.

Vermont experienced a massive flooding event from November 2-4, 1927 with 15 inches of rainfall in a 36-hour period. In 1927, Vermont had fewer than 100 miles of paved roads, so the storm created muddy conditions across the state and heavily delayed food and supply deliveries. Rivers throughout the state reached 13 or more over their normal depths, and the capital of Montpelier was hit especially hard by the storm. The then-Governor of Vermont, John Weeks, called it the "greatest catastrophe in Vermont's history" because it damaged over 1,200 bridges as well as miles of roadways and railroad tracks. It also caused 84 fatalities.

This flood was long before FEMA existed and before there were many federal programs in place to provide relief for major storms. Therefore, the 1927 Vermont State Legislature called to order a special session and they approved an $8.5 million bond issue to repair and upgrade roads throughout the state. Within two years, Vermont spent over $12 million on highways, including $2.6 million provided by a federal grant (which was unprecedented for the time). To extend the rebuilding process, the governor convinced the Legislature to approve funding for another 125 miles of roadways. This established a connected highway system throughout the state.

From these historical records, it is clear that the State was motivated to upgrade and expand its infrastructure systems in the aftermath of the Flood of 1927. It was evident that the state's numerous dirt roads would present future flooding, emergency response, and mitigation challenges. Vermont needed a more robust road network to improve resilience during flooding, snow, and other types of weather events. It is also interesting that this flooding event was only a few years before the Great Depression. It is unlikely that a state like Vermont would receive a $2+ million grant for rebuilding roads after the economic crisis of the Great Depression. Federal funds were probably geared more towards alleviating poverty and expanding job creation programs. This was an opportunistic moment for Vermont to improve its infrastructure and have the strength to withstand some impacts of future storms.

The flood occurred almost a hundred years ago at a time when Vermont had a relatively small population. The state government was probably not focused on floodplain management efforts and even if they were, they may have lacked the capacity or the funding to implement widescale improvements. Indeed, only two stores carried flood insurance in Montpelier at the time of the flood. Losses totaled about $400 per person within the town. Families and individuals were probably left to remove water from their stores, homes, and properties without state or federal financial assistance. However, utilizing state funding to improve the road system was a strategic decision not only to improve the connectivity of people and goods, but also economic vitality and emergency response during storms.

Tropical Storm Irene swept across Vermont on August 28, 2011, causing 11 inches of rainfall. It destroyed over 500 miles of highway and caused major arteries for the state, including Route 9 and Route 100, to close. It damaged almost $750 million in property, including over 20,000 acres of farmland, as well as hundreds of bridges, historic buildings, homes, and businesses. The flooding also killed 7 people in Vermont.

The tropical storm destroyed the Waterbury State Office Complex, which, ironically, was the home of the Vermont Emergency Management office. The state spent over $130 million to restore the office complex to 6 inches above the 500-year floodplain point. This was the state government's largest-ever construction project, supported by $32 million from FEMA and $15 million from insurance.

The storm also presented entirely new challenges for Vermont. For example, it caused the spread of an invasive plant species, Japanese Knotwood, that thrives on flooding conditions. This led to the increased erosion of riverbanks and negative impacts on native plant and fish populations. It has taken a lot of manpower and effort to smother the Japanese Knotweed in regions across the state.

Similar to the Flood of 1927, Tropical Storm Irene motivated the state to upgrade its infrastructure. Many towns bought out properties located in flood zones to prevent future issues and increase overall green space. The state built stronger bridges and roads and also updated its laws to improve resilience and river corridor protection. Lastly, the state established a  Flood Ready Vermont  website to educate the public about its programs and overhauled the state hazard mitigation plan in 2018. Overall, these efforts were a combination of infrastructure modernization, policy improvements, and public education programs.

The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) is administered by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Communities across the country have the option to opt-into the NFIP, which then allows renters, property owners, and businesses to receive flood insurance from the program. Vermont has 256 municipalities and almost 90 percent of these communities participate in the National Flood Insurance Program. This high percentage is beneficial because it allows residents in those participating communities to apply for flood insurance through the National Flood Insurance Program, which can be much cheaper than flood insurance from a private company. Homes with federally-backed mortgages that are in the Special Flood Hazard Area are required to obtain flood insurance. Participating in the NFIP also makes properties in the Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) eligible for federal grants and loans, which can support them before, during and after flooding events.

It is advantageous to participate in the National Flood Insurance Program because communities can receive federal aid after a major flooding event (post-disaster funding). It evidently paid off for Vermont to have so many participating communities during Tropical Storm Irene, because NFIP flood insurance claims hit a record high of $42 million. This is about five times the total amount of NFIP flood insurance claims in Vermont from 1978-2010. While this funding may not be substantial enough to entirely repair or reconstruct damaged homes, it provides support to property owners that had insurance and were impacted by the flooding.

As of July 2021, only 2% of the total participating communities in the NFIP in Vermont also participate in the Community Rating System (CRS). The CRS is a voluntary program that provides incentives for participating NFIP communities to go above and beyond the minimum requirements. This means that they will take additional efforts to reduce the amount of properties damaged by floods and establish more comprehensive floodplain management strategies to better protect their communities. By participating in the CRS, communities are eligible for significant discounts on flood insurance premium rates, particularly for properties in the Special Flood Hazard Area but also for properties outside of it as well. As communities earn more credits, they level into higher Class ranks within the Community Rating System framework (with Class 1 being the highest and Class 10 being the starting point) and they receive greater reductions in insurance premiums. They also establish more credibility as a municipality for prioritizing floodplain management and going the extra mile to protect properties and individuals from flooding impacts. As shown in the graphic below, there are 6 communities in Vermont that opted-in to the CRS and these include Montpelier, Bennington, Berlin, Brattleboro, and Colchester.

Overall, Vermont has a small level of participation in the Community Rating System. This is not entirely unsurprising, because it is not a coastal state and the state has only experienced major flooding events a few times in its history. It may be likely that coastal states stand to benefit much more from participating in the CRS, especially ones with a significant amount of properties in the SFHA and other properties that are at risk of flooding. These communities can receive the insurance premium discounts and benefit many more families and individuals living and working within the flood zone. If Vermont continues to experience major flooding events, more communities may be inclined to participate in the Community Rating System in order to receive those benefits.

This section provides an overview of the strategies and efforts Vermont has taken to mitigate flooding and other hazards, as well as the limitations it has faced in doing so. This includes emergency response, floodplain management, flood mitigation, and relevant policy efforts as well.

On July 9, 2023, Vermont Governor Phil Scott issued a State of Emergency Declaration based on data from weather and water forecasts for a high likelihood of excessive rain. The purpose of this was to warn state residents and relevant personnel of the heavy rainfall forecast and the potential threat to public safety and personal property. This declaration mobilized swift water rescue teams and additional resources from neighboring states and it also activated the Emergency Operating Plan. The declaration and the following steps were critical to protect human life and property during the flooding event. The heaviest rainfall occurred from July 10-11th, 2023. By July 11th, almost 100 State and U.S. Highways were closed across the Vermont and by July 14th, over 200 urban and swift water rescues had been performed.

The National Weather Service of Burlington worked in collaboration with nearby Weather Forecast Offices and other partners like the Northeast River Forecast Center and the Weather Prediction Center. This allowed them to provide consistent messaging and public communications before, during, and after the flooding event. Together, the agencies issued Flood Watches for flash flooding and coordinated a "HIGH-risk" Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook in areas across Vermont. They used terms like "catastrophic" and "historic" to describe the impending flooding and warned residents that the impacts would be comparable to those experienced during Tropical Storm Irene. These forecasts and announcements added confidence to weather reports across the state, likely improving the public's trust in the messaging and preparedness for the storm. The consistent messaging also facilitated efficient and proactive efforts from national, state, and local agencies to provide resources to areas impacted by the flooding.

A key part of resilience is your ability to respond to flooding events and return to normalcy, or to a more protected state. Because of previous floods, Vermont had a faster recovery in terms of reopening roads and restoring power after outages. For example, the Vermont Agency of Transportation reopened 90% of the 100 state roads that were closed within 1 week of the Great Vermont Flood of 2023. After Tropical Storm Irene in 2011, this took the agency 4 months to accomplish. Additionally, Green Mountain Power reported 70% less power outages across the state for the Great Vermont Flood compared to those that occurred during Tropical Storm Irene. That utility provides electricity to three-quarters of the state, so their efforts to upgrade the power grid and improve resiliency in design were critical. Electric companies typically remove branches and trees near power lines, use waterproofing technologies, and establish systems that maintain power to key services like hospitals. Reopening roads and restoring power is critical for post-disaster recovery: it allows trucks with supplies, emergency vehicles, and evacuating residents to move freely and it allows basic services like hospitals to keep helping locals.

In response to the Great Flood of 2023, Vermont set aside over $20 million in grants for businesses looking to rebuild, at a maximum of $20,000 each. Governor Scott has stated that it is just a start- he knows it's not enough money to support everyone in the state. The businesses aren’t eligible for funding from FEMA but alternative resources have sprung up to support them, including several fundraising events and GoFundMe sites. In a state like Vermont with many small towns and small businesses, this could be a key step to restoring their overall economy.

Overall, Vermont has to keep responding to these major storms and use every one as a lesson. Resiliency is a continuous aim, not a static goal that is necessarily achievable at a certain threshold. Climate change is likely to cause more frequent storms, increased precipitation totals, and potentially more flash floods in riverside communities within Vermont. The state will have to continue improving its response efforts based on data and outcomes from previous flooding events.

In general, flood mitigation and adaptation typically involve a few common strategies. For one, many cities will create or expand existing green and gray infrastructure. This can include restoring wetlands, expanding forests, and planting native shoreline plant species in order to better absorb precipitation and mitigate the impacts of storm surges in coastal areas. Communities also build gray infrastructure like floodwalls or seawalls, levees, and dams to manage water and reduce flooding impacts. Other strategies involve policy and planning efforts, including buying out properties located in flood zones, providing incentives for homeowners to floodproof their homes, and establishing stricter building codes to limit risky development in the floodplain. Lastly, hazard mitigation and emergency planning are critical; these include planning evacuation routes, providing public communications, and restoring utility lines and other services post-flooding event. Vermont has used a combination of these strategies, especially after 2011 in the wake of Tropical Storm Irene.

After the tropical storm, Vermont adopted new standards for bridge and road construction to improve their strength against major storms. The state also requested federal funding to increase the size of bridges and culverts, because during Irene many were undersized and thus washed away under the pressure of the floods. Although the state provided funding for these bridges and additional infrastructure projects, much of the rainfall from the Great Vermont Flood of 2023 fell in other areas of the state. This emphasized the need for not only hard infrastructure projects, but also river floodplain restoration and more nature-based solutions as well in more remote areas.

After Irene, Vermont not only invested in rebuilding roads and bridges but the state also allocated funding for mitigation projects. For example, the state established the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program in 2011. This program has provided over $20 million for towns to buy out almost 150 properties in the floodplain and remove their structures. The goal was to prevent repetitive losses of buildings if they are in high risk areas and to repurpose the now-vacant land as park space in perpetuity. The State Legislature also approved $4.6 million for the Flood Resilient Communities Fund, which provides support for buy-outs and other mitigation projects.

These are best industry practices for floodplain management across the country, but Vermont has to make more significant strides to improve flood resiliency in the future. About three-quarters of the rivers throughout the state are still disconnected from their historical floodplains. This causes more rivers to overflow and cause flash floods during extreme rainfall as they make their way back to their natural floodplains. Researchers estimate that more than 10,000 homes still need to be bought out, which is a much higher number than the state's current total of 150. This is a common challenge with buy-outs, though, because communities need property owners' consent and to pay a fair price. It can be hard to get financial support for these programs and see measurable progress on flood mitigation unless it is done at a broad scale. Buy-outs and managed retreat programs are gaining traction, slowly, in coastal and riverine communities.

Public education and preparedness are still a challenge for mitigation in Vermont. A study published in 2023 by researchers at the national nonprofit the First Street Foundation found that there are three times as many properties in Vermont with a considerate flood risk than FEMA has mapped within the 100-year floodplain. Developers, home buyers, and others may use the FEMA flood maps when constructing or purchasing a home to analyze floodplain conditions and guide their decisions. However, these may not be the most accurate because the FEMA maps for Vermont were last updated in 2013, just about a decade ago. This means that local residents, property owners, and communities may underestimate their risk for flooding and underprepare for major storms.

Lauren Oates, Vermont's Hazard Mitigation Officer, lead the state's effort to overhaul their hazard mitigation plan. The State published a new one in 2018, 7 years after Irene, that was more focused on managing the risks brought about by climate change. The State is currently in the process of analyzing public feedback and submitting their hazard mitigation draft plan for 2023 to FEMA for review.

The government structure of Vermont presents a challenge for hazard mitigation within the State. Vermont has 256 municipalities but there are no county governments, similar to other New England states like Connecticut, part of Massachusetts, and Rhode Island. This makes it difficult to have strategic regional planning efforts, because individual towns make those critical decisions and they have typically have limited staff and resources available. During a major flooding event, this type of government fragmentation causes FEMA to have to contact individual towns to coordinate disaster response. This makes the response less efficient than if there were only a handful of county governments to contact. It also makes it difficult to do more regional, watershed planning. Towns upstream of their neighbors that have poor floodplain management can heavily impact downstream communities.

The 2018 hazard mitigation plan that Lauren Oates helped to publish tries to incentivize local action in resilience planning. The more funding that an individual town invests in hazard mitigation efforts, the less it is required to contribute to recovery programs in the aftermath of a flooding event or other disaster. While this is a strategy that can improve regional watershed planning, it has not been popular amongst communities that are far from river corridors.

1. Vermont does not require disclosure of flood risk to home buyers or renters
   1. Property sellers are not required to tell potential buyers or renters if their property is located in a flood zone. As a result, many buyers or renters may be misinformed and underestimate their flood risks and they may face damages during a flooding event. This is critical information that should be disclosed to potential buyers and renters because it may cause them to choose a home in a different area, farther away from the flood zone. Without a federal mandate, there are varying levels of disclosures requirements in each state. The map on the right shows the scorecard for flood risk disclosure laws per state as of September 2023.
2. Very few households have flood insurance through the NFIP (only 1% of households in the entire state) although 90% of communities participate in the program
   1. Despite having a high percentage of communities participating in the National Flood Insurance Program, few properties within those communities actually purchase flood insurance through the program. This may be because there are not that many properties within the Special Flood Hazard Area or it may be partly due to people underestimating their flood risk. Either way, many properties within the SFHA and beyond it flooded during the Great Flood of 2023 and previous storms, so it would be beneficial for more individuals to purchase flood insurance.
3. Very few communities participate in the Community Rating System
   1. 90% of the communities in the state participate in the National Flood Insurance Program, but very few of these (only 6) go above and beyond the minimum requirements and participate in the Community Rating System. This guarantees flood insurance premiums for all properties in those communities and greater protection from flooding impacts.
4. Many individuals and communities may underestimate their flood risks
   1. Many residents within Vermont may underestimate their flood risk, because the state has only had 3 major flooding events over the past century and it is not a coastal state. However, many riverine communities are at risk of flooding. During the Great Flood of 2023, many homes were flooded that were located outside of the SFHA, so those homeowners or renters may not have anticipated the flooding event and consequentially faced greater damages. Vermonters need to understand their flood risk and adequately prepare, even if they are beyond the SFHA.
5. The FEMA flood maps were last updated in 2013, so this outdated data is being used to make current decisions and recommendations
   1. Part of the problem with underestimating risk is that FEMA flood maps are typically outdated in areas across the country. For Vermont, they were last updated in 2013 and since then, there has likely been development and other changes to base flood elevations. Vermonters need more accurate maps to make more informed development and flood management decisions.
6. Many flood models don’t typically include landslides
   1. Flood models are typically basic in nature and don't factor in other hazards like sea level rise and landslides. Landslides and mudslides can impact mountainous areas of Vermont, particularly communities near the Green Mountains, and cause greater damages from flooding events.

This section summarizes a proposal of recommendations for flood mitigation and floodplain management for the future, both at the state and local level.

1. Pass state legislation that requires property owners or sellers to disclose flood risk to potential buyers or renters. Let them know if the home or property is in a flood zone and provide them with information about what that means and how to manage it.
2. Establish regular public education campaigns to encourage home owners and renters, especially those who live in the Special Flood Hazard Zone (but also those outside of it), to purchase flood insurance and get informed on their flood risk. People might think that they are at a very low risk of flooding impacts, but Vermont's mountainous geography, numerous rivers, and heavy precipitation levels make for a greater chance of flash flooding. Public education campaigns can also encourage people to install floodproofing measures in their homes and be better prepared for flooding events, as well as share details on hazard mitigation efforts.
3. Encourage more NFIP-participating communities to opt-into the Community Rating System.
4. Expand state funding allocations for floodplain management and mitigation programs, including for buy-outs and infrastructure improvements.
5. Improve local town coordination on watershed management projects. These can include projects that align with the leave Room for the River campaign. This movement involves creating buyout programs to have cities/towns purchase flood-prone properties and repurpose them as green spaces. It also champions creating riparian buffers next to rivers with vegetation and natural green spaces in order to mitigate the impacts of riverine (or fluvial) flooding. This strategy allows for the trees and other plants to absorb the excess water instead of damaging homes, businesses, and other buildings. These natural buffers can also create public park spaces that provide additional benefits, such as recreational opportunities for local residents and improved mental and physical health outcomes. This strategy is especially important for Vermont, where the geography consists of many mountains and rivers that run throughout the state. Without county governments, it is a challenge to pursue more regional planning, so Vermont should lead this effort from the state level.
6. Advocate for updated data and maps from the Federal Emergency Management Agency so that Vermont government officials, developers, and residents can make informed decisions regarding properties and flood mitigation.
7. Continue to learn from major flooding events and improve resiliency with each one. This includes analyzing data, improving emergency response, offering more funding for disaster relief, and creating more resilient infrastructure and natural systems.

The State of Vermont was devastated by the Great Vermont Flood of July 2023 and may need to implement additional measures to be better prepared for future flooding events. Climate change is causing more heavy rainfall and more frequent storms in Vermont, as well as other parts of the US, so communities within the State need to have proper hazard mitigation and floodplain management policies, strategies, and response programs in place. This ArcGIS StoryMap summarizes the details of the Great Vermont Flood, provides context on previous flooding events, and makes recommendations for the State to improve their flood mitigation and resiliency efforts. This project answers the questions of how communities were affected by the Great Vermont Flood, what their responses were, and how preparations and responses can be improved to limit flooding impacts in the future. The StoryMap is available to the public online, so it is easily accessible and can be shared to the relevant government agencies, community organizations, and other stakeholders to advocate for more resilient floodplain management policies and strategies. 

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