Assessing Risk for Tornadoes in Texas

We can use a variety of data to assess risk for tornadoes in Texas based on past tornado patterns and current weather phenomena.

Tornadoes are a big issue in Texas, since 1950 there have been almost 10,000 tornadoes killing hundreds of people and leaving billions of dollars of damage. Out of all of the states in the US in the last 5 years, Texas has had the second most after Mississippi at 95 while Mississippi is at 115 ( https://usafacts.org/articles/beyond-tornado-alley-which-states-have-the-most-tornadoes/ ), and this must mean certain things about Texas make it especially susceptible to tornadoes. Some of these things include the elevation of certain areas as flat areas are known to have more risk of tornadoes while hills and rugged landscapes are less at risk for tornadoes. Another thing to take into account is the weather. Tornadoes are caused when warm, moist air is wedged under drier, cooler air aloft. This warm air rises, causing the intense updrafts and downdrafts seen in strong thunderstorms — the incubators of tornadoes ( https://www.c2es.org/content/tornadoes-and-climate-change/#:~:text=Instability%20occurs%20when%20warm%2C%20moist,thunderstorms%20%E2%80%94%20the%20incubators%20of%20tornadoes. ). This means that tracking weather features like precipitation, wind, humidity, and drought will be important in assessing future risk for a tornado in Texas. This is a big story because it can be a catastrophic event that can affect so many, that’s why figuring out where the risk for it is early is so important.

Short-Term Weather Warnings (Lab 3b)

Active Tornado Watch - NOAA. Map straight from NOAA's website, the red section is an active tornado, and the blue is an active thunderstorm.

Tornado Warnings 2023-24 (Lab 3b)

What Is a Tornado? | How do tornados form? Tornados for kids

This is a map that looks at precipitation spatially across the state of Texas with areas in the yellow and dark green having the most rain. It appears that as of this update, rain is the only likely upcoming phenomena. Updated as recently as 3/16/2024.

Arkansas and Oklahoma appear to have a moderate risk for a tornado, however, Texas is only partially at slight risk with most of the state only at risk for thunderstorms. Updated as recently as 3/13/2024.

Maps of Texas that show Elevation, Average Max Temp, Average Min Temp, and Average Annual Precipitation with legends attached.

Tornado levels nearly 200 homes in Texas town, leaves 3 dead

August 22, 2023 LIVE South Texas Tornado Coverage [TS HAROLD] {D}

See damage left behind by tornado that destroyed about 200 homes | CNN

Real photos of tornadoes in action.

This is a map that looks at precipitation spatially across the state of Texas with areas in the yellow and dark green having the most rain. It appears that as of this update, rain is the only likely upcoming phenomena. Updated as recently as 3/16/2024.

Arkansas and Oklahoma appear to have a moderate risk for a tornado, however, Texas is only partially at slight risk with most of the state only at risk for thunderstorms. Updated as recently as 3/13/2024.

Maps of Texas that show Elevation, Average Max Temp, Average Min Temp, and Average Annual Precipitation with legends attached.