Europe's Marginal lands

Mapping the extent of marginal lands in Europe

Introduction

New biomass sources need to be found to be used as feedstock for the circular bio-economy which have low or no Indirect land Use (ILUC) effects. One of the options to avoid ILUC is growing non-edible crops on marginal, abandoned and degraded lands as has already been envisaged in the EU Recast Renewable Energy Directive RED II (EC, 2018).

Marginal lands are having limitations which in aggregate are severe for sustained application of a given use. Increased inputs to maintain productivity or benefits will be only marginally justified. These lands have limited options for diversification without the use of inputs and with inappropriate management, risks exist of irreversible degradation

FAO-CGIAR, 1999

In MIDAS the objective is to improve our understanding of the actual and future available marginal land in Europe. In this StoryMap we explain how we have defined and mapped marginal lands for the current (2020) situation and for the future (2050). The focus in MIDAS is on marginal lands that are constrained by biophysical (climate and soil) limitations which makes conventional agricultural use challenging, and which have a higher chance to become abandoned and/or degraded.

example pictures of marginal soils


What are marginal lands?

MIDAS vs MAGIC

MIDAS defines and delineates marginal lands similar as has already been done in the  Horizon-2020 MAGIC project .

Besides some improvements in the methodological approach, the mapping process is updated with new input data for climate factors and soil data. Furthermore, MIDAS not only maps the current (2020) situation but also projects future 2050 marginal lands, considering the effects of climate change.

MIDAS not only maps the current (2020) situation but also projects future 2050 marginal lands, considering the effects of climate change

In MIDAS the biophysical factors identified in MAGIC, have been used and remapped for the classification of severe limitations for crop production. These cover 18 single factors, grouped into 6 clustered factors. For every factor a threshold was determined according to which the area with a severe limitation can be mapped.

Factors can also score within the 20% margin of the threshold value of severity and then they are categorized as ‘sub-severe’. These sub-severe classes can be included in the marginal land class in case they fall in a pairwise combinations with another single factors scoring sub-severe. Their combination may jointly aggravate (negative combination) or counterbalance (positive combination) the limiting conditions (based on Terres et al., 2014).

The simplified approach of mapping marginal land in both MAGIC and MIDAS is considered appropriate since major limitations for agriculture are identified, rather than optimal conditions for plant growth and land management.

The 6 clustered factors are further explained and illustrated with maps in the following sections:

1 - Adverse Climate

Adverse climate is composed of two factors as proposed in the JRC approach to map areas of natural constraints (van Oorschoven et al., 2014): low temperatures and dryness. It is clear that the change of the adverse climate factors will be most influenced by climate change and are therefore also most significantly influencing on the future location of marginal lands by 2050.

1.1– Adverse Climate – low temperature

Very low temperatures exclude or limit growth of many agricultural crops. As an indicator for low temperatures the Length of Growing Period was used.

A location is marginal when categorised in the severe class which is determined by the Thermal-time sum or growing degree-days. The threshold for severe is at 1500 degree days for Growing Period defined by accumulated daily average temperature > 5°C.

The sub-severe threshold is set at 1575 degree days and this implies that if this threshold occurs in a pairwise combination with the factors ‘excess soil moisture’ and ‘heavy clay’ in the sub-severe class they are classified as severe and therefore included in marginal land.

Regions with low temperatures, which are characterised by short growing seasons, can limit or exclude the growth of agricultural crops

1.2– Adverse Climate – dryness

For dryness the ratio of precipitation over potential evapotranspiration is indicative of soil moisture conditions for agricultural crops. In case of low rainfall and high evaporative demand then the soil moisture supply will be low and the growth potential for crops is low.

The indicator for dryness is assessed by taking 'the ratio of the annual precipitation (P) to the annual potential evapotranspiration (PET)'. The threshold is set at 0.5 (P/PET ≤ 0.5).

The sub-severe level is set at P/PET ≤ 0.6. If this sub-severe level occurs in combination with sub-severe level scores for the factors ‘coarse fragments and stoniness’, ‘sand and loamy sand’, ‘heavy clay’, ‘salinity-sodicity’ and ‘slope’ it is classified as severe and included in the marginal land.

Severely dried-out soils in rural areas of Portugal

2– Excessive wetness

Excess of soil moisture over prolonged time in the field is limiting for crops and for management. Access of the field with machines and the workability of the soil is hampered and lack of oxygen for root growth limits crop growth.

There are two factors that can determine the status in marginal or non-marginal:

  1. water content above field capacity and
  2. soil drainage status of the soil.

The first factor is defined as ‘soil moisture content exceeding field capacity for at least 210 days (7 months)’. The sub-severe threshold is set at 190 days. The sub-severe threshold is set at 190 days. If this sub-severe threshold occurs in pairwise combination with severe ‘slope’ the location is no longer severe, so excluded from the marginal land class. This pairwise combination is an example of a positive synergy.

The second factor, soil drainage status, is a morphometric parameter that reflects the combined effects of climate, landscape and soil. It is described in the field and is indicative for the wetness of a soil over longer periods of time (and that is reflected in the soil status, judged by a.o. soil colour and mottling). The poorly drained soils from WRB (at Soil Reference Group level and at the level of principle qualifiers) selected to be classified as ‘severe’ from the European Soils Database are: Gleysols, Histosols, Stagnosols, Plano-sol, soils with primary qualifiers Histic, Gleyic, Stagnic & marshlands with >60% clay. Sub-severe is >50% clay which if occurring in pairwise combination with severe ‘slope’ the location is no longer severe, so excluded from the marginal land class (positive synergy).

Also both factors will be influenced by climate change and are therefore of importance to identify the 2050 location of marginal lands.

Example of a Dutch pasture meadow enduring continuous water saturation throughout the year due to an exceptionally high groundwater level.

3– Adverse chemical conditions

Adverse chemical conditions are defined by two different factors. Either excess of salts (salinity or sodicity) or by toxic elements in the soil that hamper crop growth or may pose a health risk. The excess of salts affects crop growth in various ways: by toxicity effects, by reducing the water availability to plants through increased osmotic pressure and by causing nutritional disorders. Excess of salts occurs through salinity (access of free salts) and sodicity (saturation of the soil exchange complex with sodium), (Mantel and Kauffman, 1995).

Salinity is identified through units on the soil map of Europe (European Soils Database) which were mapped in the ESDAC project (Toth et al., 2018). Solonchaks soils and soils with a salic qualifier that cover more than 50% of the mapping unit area were ranked as highly saline (ECse > 15 dS/m).

Sodicity was mapped from the same source (ESDAC). It is derived from the mapping units that have more than 50% area of sodic soils (Solonetz) and soils with a sodic qualifier. Sodic soils are soils with saturation of the exchange complex with sodium (ESP) of more than 15%. The sub-severe class for both salinity and sodicity is determined at a below 50% salic or sodic area coverage of the mapping unit area. If this sub-severe situation overlaps with the sub-severe dryness class (> 0.5 P/PET < 0.6) it becomes severe in a negative pairwise combination.

Solonchak soil at the  Neusiedler See  at the border of Hungary and Austria showing a clear salt crust in the top soil

There are several naturally occurring toxicities in soils that have a negative effect on crop growth. The acid sulphate soils were identified as toxic and these were identified through the Thionic qualifier of soils in the European Soils Database. The reason these acid sulphate soils are limiting agricultural use is because when they are drained, which happens when they are used for arable agriculture, they become extremely acidic, as sulfides react with oxygen to form sulfuric acid. Extremely high acidity, high sulfur availability and aluminium toxicity that result in drained acid sulphate soils are posing great limitations to land management for farming. In acid subsoils this may also be caused by high aluminium contents. Since aluminium toxicity is not well represented in the soil databases available it was not possible to include this factor in the marginal land map.

4– Low fertility

Low fertility refers to the availability of nutrients over time to crops. Soil nutrient availability is often highly variable in both space and time and depends on many variables. Here two parameters that influence soil fertility were ranked: soil reaction (pH) and organic carbon content. Soil reaction is an indicator for the availability of nutrients (poor in alkaline and in acid soils). Soils with pH (0-30 cm) below 4.5 or above 8 are considered (severely) limited. Organic carbon contributes to the nutrient buffering capacity of the soil and organic matter is a direct source of nutrients. Low carbon containing soils are indicative for low soil fertility and low biomass turnover. The severe threshold for SOC% is set at 1% and <1.25%.  If SOC% is sub-severe it will become severe in a pairwise combination with sub-severe scoring ‘slope’- and ‘dryness’- factors.

Large parts of the provinces of Murcia and Albacete in south-central Spain are grappling with a dual challenge of poor soil fertility and the increase in arid climatic conditions, posing difficulties in sustaining current agricultural practices.

5– Limitations in rooting conditions

Root growth is directly related to possibility for uptake of nutrients and water and provides food for the crop. Several root growth constraining factors are used:

  1. unfavourable soil texture
  2. coarse fragments
  3. organic soils
  4. surface stones and rocks
  5. shallow rooting depth

Unfavourable texture concerns the sandy soils and the heavy clays. Very sandy soils have a low water holding capacity and are often low in nutrient content and nutrient buffering capacity. Normal fertilization practices have limited efficiency on very sandy soils (Van Oorschoven et al., 2014). Heavy clays are limiting for crop cultivation as they have limitations in access for machinery during wet parts of the season, difficult workability and may have shrinking and swelling characteristics during dry and wet conditions that may damage plant roots. Water movement may be slow in heavy clays (due to low porosity) and water may accumulate on the surface in high rainfall events.  The threshold for severe is determined by the amount of sand, loamy sand defined as: silt% + (2 x clay%) ≤ 30% (implying  max 70% sand). If sand availability is max 60% the class becomes sub-severe and in a pairwise combination with sub-severe salinity/sodicity it is classified as severe.  

The presence of coarse fragments limits crop cultivation because the negative effect on workability. The volume occupied by coarse fragments limits rootable space and the volume of storage for water and nutrients in the soil. Surface stones and rocks are another limitation for soil workability and access of machinery. Furthermore, surface stones and rocks hamper seed germination. The threshold for 'severe' was set for a surface coverage (at depth: 0-30 cm) by coarse fragments at >35% and/or > 15% with rock coverage. For sub-severe level the thresholds of surface coverage were > 25% and/or > 10% respectively.  If these sub-severe classes occur in a pairwise combination with sub-severe scores for ‘sand, loamy sand’, and slope’ it is classified as 'severe'.  

Organic soils are soils with organic matter content ≥20% in a layer of 40 cm or more, either extending down from the surface or taken cumulatively within the upper 100 cm of the soil (histic horizon, IUSS Working Group WRB, 2006). Foothold for roots is limited in organic soils, especially for perennial crops. Peatlands are typical examples of where organic soils occur and they are both ecologically valuable and fragile. Cultivation of organic soils requires drainage and this causes oxidation of the peat and methane release. Peat soils are therefore best left uncultivated. There is no sub-severe class for organic soils.

Shallow rooting depth is defined as the depth from soil surface to coherent hard rock or hard pan. The rootable soil volume is a critical characteristic of land in relation to suitability for farming. It determines the foothold for roots, but most of all the total store of nutrients and water that will be potentially available to the plant during the growing season. Rootable soil volume may be limited by chemical or physical barriers. In assessment of marginal lands a shallow depth from the soil surface to an impeding layer (hardpan) or to bedrock of 30 cm or less is considered severe. Selected soils classified as severe are therefore Leptosols, Albeluvisols, Lithic, Petrocalcic, Fragipans, Duripans, Petroferric. There is no sub-severe class for organic soils.

Extreme stone volumes in cropland top soil on the plateaus surrounding the village of  Miño de San Esteban  in the Soria province of Spain

6– Adverse terrain conditions

For this cluster two factors are considered namely slope and flooding risk. Steeply sloping lands are a limitation for land access with machines, but also for water infiltration capacity. On sloping land less water infiltrates into the soil and surface runoff leads to erosion. The slope is described as the change of elevation with respect to planimetric distance (%). The threshold for severe was set at slopes of ≥ 15% covering >80% of the area. Thresholds for sub-severe were set at 15% slopes covering between 80% and 60% of the area. When sub-severe slope can still become severe in a pair-wise combination with sub-severe scores in ‘stoniness’, ‘low fertility by low SOC%’, ‘dryness’. If sub-severe it may also convert a severe score for ‘excess soil moisture’ into a sub-severe score which leads to exclusion from marginal land.

Flooding is a risk for crops on the field as they may be damaged directly through the resistance of the water flow and the resulting (prolonged) water ponding may damage crops. Thresholds were set for severe class at >2m flood in two years return time and for sub-severe they are at >1-2m flood in two years return time.

Steep slopes are a limitation for land access with machines, but also for water infiltration capacity, often restricting their use to grazing areas or meadows for haying purposes.


Total area of marginal lands in 2050

The area of marginal land that occurs within the agricultural area of the EU27 + UK is decreasing in the period 2020-2050 with 6,385km 2  from 513,521km 2  to 507,136km 2 . However, large differences exist within Europe. In Scandinavia (North), Atlantic and Alpine regions the area occupied by marginal land is decreasing mainly due to improving climatic conditions for agricultural practices, while in the Mediterranean the reverse is taking place: an increase of marginal land for the period 2020-2050 with 34,025km 2  (6.6%) due changing climatic conditions and soil fertility.

Map of the change in marginal types for the period 2020-2050:

Marginal types for 2020 (left) and 2050 (right), using the actual  Chelsa  climate data and future  GFDL-ESM-model forecasting under RCP 8.5  . Use the slider to explore the differences


Option to explore both maps in a 3d view:

MIDAS marginal 3D


Comparison of marginal areas

Numbers per Environmental Region


Value of the marginal land mapping

The maps with marginal lands in 2020 and 2050 tell us where the largest challenges are and will be under influence of climate change, for conventional food production. In these marginal areas there will be a need to either compensate farmers for higher cost and lower returns from their lands in order to prevent land abandonment or to stimulate the development and investments in alternative uses of the land that can be combined with the natural constraints in place. Such alternatives may be the production of non-food biomass to be used as feedstock for the production of bio-chemicals and biomaterials that can replace fossil resources.

In marginal areas there will be a need to either compensate farmers for higher cost and lower returns from their lands in order to prevent land abandonment or to stimulate the development and investments in alternative uses of the land that can be combined with the natural constraints in place

Comparing the maps of marginal lands in 2020 and 2050 reveals an urgent need for Mediterranean farmers to shift towards more drought-tolerant agricultural systems. In the North, the impact of climate change will expand suitable agricultural lands for food production due to an extended growing season in terms of growing degree days.

Comparing the maps of marginal lands in 2020 and 2050 reveals an urgent need for Mediterranean farmers to shift towards more drought-tolerant agricultural systems


Sources

  • Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO), Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), (1999); Research Priorities for Marginal Lands, the Framework for Prioritizing Land Types in Agricultural Research, the Rural Poverty and Land Degradation: A Reality Check for the CGIAR; CHAPTER 2 - DEFINITIONS AND CONTEXT. Document No.:SDR/TAC:IAR/99/12
  • Terres, J.-M., Hagyo, A., Wania, A., Confalonieri, R., Jones, R., van Diepen, K., Van Orshoven, J., (2014). Scientific contribution on combining biophysical criteria underpinning the delineation of agricultural areas affected by specific constraints: Methodology and factsheets for plausible criteria combinations.
  • Van Orshoven, J., Terres, J.-M., Tóth, T., Jones, R., Le-Bas, C., Nachtergaele, F., Rossiter, D., Schulte, R., Van Velthuizen, H., (2014). Updated common bio-physical criteria to define natural constraints for agriculture in Europe - Definition and scientific justification for the common biophysical criteria. JRC Science and Policy Reports.  https://doi.org/10.2788/79958 

 


Regions with low temperatures, which are characterised by short growing seasons, can limit or exclude the growth of agricultural crops

Severely dried-out soils in rural areas of Portugal

Example of a Dutch pasture meadow enduring continuous water saturation throughout the year due to an exceptionally high groundwater level.

Solonchak soil at the  Neusiedler See  at the border of Hungary and Austria showing a clear salt crust in the top soil

Large parts of the provinces of Murcia and Albacete in south-central Spain are grappling with a dual challenge of poor soil fertility and the increase in arid climatic conditions, posing difficulties in sustaining current agricultural practices.

Extreme stone volumes in cropland top soil on the plateaus surrounding the village of  Miño de San Esteban  in the Soria province of Spain

Steep slopes are a limitation for land access with machines, but also for water infiltration capacity, often restricting their use to grazing areas or meadows for haying purposes.