What is the DRP project?

To predict the effects of ongoing climate change on erosion in communities with a focus on permafrost thaw likelihood while incorporating archival data on early 20 ^th  century epidemics, hospitals and burials related to Spanish Flu, tuberculosis, etc. Other data gathered will include chemical spills, sites of historic mining activity, long term permafrost thaw changes, and historical settlement patterns.

Funding was obtained through a large multi-institution grant on soil erosion and permafrost thaw from the DOD/US Army Corps of Engineers through the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Lab in Hanover, VT in conjunction with the following institutions (Virginia Tech, Stony Brook University, Minneapolis College of Art and Design, University of North Dakota)

1.      To create and publicly share a database of story-maps and visual dataset maps of predicted environmental changes under a number of climate scenarios across the study area with equal focus on areas of concern chosen by community and identified via satellite imagery

2.      Focus study on erosion potential considering environmental changes due to past and present human activity in northwestern Alaska. Particular research focus will emphasize biosecurity risks of 19th and 20th century illness sites identified through research in light of the COVID-19 pandemic and infrastructure access.

3.      Include possible scenarios (eg., different rates of warming or sea level rise) at at least 5, 10, and 15 year intervals.

Currently, study sites are limited to the Seward Peninsula (Nome, Teller, Wales, Brevig Mission), the Northern Slope Borough (Utqiagvik, Point Lay, Point Hope), and the Upper Yukon (Circle) where erosion concerns have been noted. Climate models will investigate Alaska on both community level and broad state-wide scales.

The project will run from Fall 2022 – 2026 with yearly visits to Study communities and on-going check-ins with communities.

Climate data – published scientific papers, online open-source and paywall private data repositories of collected climate data, imaging from satellites and drones, photography and GPS coordinates from site visits.

Archival data – in-person visits to look through maps, photographs, correspondence, and reports from the late 19 ^th  and early 20 ^th  century at archival storage locations and libraries across the state of Alaska. We will respect cultural patrimony of knowledge and gain explicit permission to integrate culturally sensitive archival data into publicly accessible databases.

Publicly available ecological data- data on permafrost extent, historical temperature information, satellite imagery, historic satellite and aerial imagery, USGS maps, and other publicly available information on the sites to inform modeling goals.

*Note: This research involves no destructive sampling, digging, or in-situ work of any kind beyond photography of both physical landforms and archival materials. All data will be from climate or archival prepared databases, or from imagery from satellites, drones, or cameras. I will not be performing any of my own drone work, but I will be using images from others.

Want to submit images, videos, or information on hazards in your community? Follow the link to the ArcGIS Quick Capture reporting form!

Potential positive impacts of the research

1.      Ability to share with the public and study communities’ areas of likely erosion or permafrost concern in the near future.

2.      Ability to compile multiple sources of Alaskan climate data and imaging into one publicly accessible and interactive platform.

3.      Ability to link archival stories of real people into the interactive story maps of the region to incorporate the deep history of the communities themselves.

Potential negative impacts of the research

1.      If biosecurity sites are found that are subject to restrictions related to national security, the US Army Core of Engineers reserves the right to remove these data from the broad public dissemination to preserve their safety. However, no digging or in-situ testing of biosecurity concerns (eg. Viruses or bacteria) in soil will be conducted, rather purely computer modeled scenarios based on public environmental and archival data.

2.      If data is found and restricted by the DOD, we will do all in my power to inform local collaborators of the removed data from the final public database and initiate follow up regarding the final location and security of found data with respect to community concerns.

If you have questions or concerns about the project please email us

Dr. Allie Zachwieja: zachw001@d.umn.edu

Dr. Emma Verstraete: verst491@d.umn.edu