Texas Covid-19 Trends Analysis
Identify the current hot spots within Texas counties and the trends over the course of a week between December 2022 and early March 2023.
Texas Data Acquisition
Case Count over time by county Texas Counties Map Moran I Reports, COVID=19 Hot Spot, Directional Distribution: ArcGIS Pro Application Results
County | January 1, 2023 | January 2, 2023 | January 3, 2023 | January 4, 2023 | January 5, 2023 | January 6, 2023 | January 7, 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dallas (Dallas) | 248 | 196 | 211 | 182 | 284 | 270 | 253 |
Dallas (Ft Worth) | 215 | 144 | 203 | 178 | 364 | 323 | 236 |
Collin (Dallas) | 120 | 74 | 90 | 85 | 167 | 117 | 101 |
Harris (Houston) | 528 | 387 | 301 | 392 | 617 | 609 | 502 |
Fort Bend (Houston) | 115 | 100 | 54 | 92 | 127 | 171 | 113 |
Travis (Austin) | 191 | 126 | 80 | 115 | 229 | 205 | 186 |
Williamson (Austin) | 108 | 55 | 53 | 51 | 93 | 135 | 92 |
Bexar (San Antonio) | 275 | 163 | 146 | 207 | 335 | 303 | 331 |
Hidalgo (McAllen) | 108 | 88 | 59 | 109 | 139 | 150 | 133 |
New Confirmed Covid-19 Cases by County
Texas Department of State Health Services
Spatial Correlation
Hot Spot
Global Moran's I
Spatial Autocorrelation (Global Moran's I) Global Moran's I * Measures spatial autocorrelation based on feature locations and attribute * Values using the Global Moran's I statistic. This tool calculates a z-score and p-value to indicate whether you can reject the null hypothesis and will generate a report.
Null Hypothesis: COVID-19 * COVID-19 infection rate has not increased over the course of three days in Texas. * All three reports have a z-score above 5.6 and a p-value of 0. * The p-value is statistically significant with a positive z-score. * Therefore, the values are more spatially clustered than random, and the null hypothesis will be rejected.
Directional Distribution
(Standard Deviational Ellipse Directional Trend Creates standard deviational ellipses or ellipsoids to summarize the spatial characteristics of geographic features: central tendency, dispersion, and the ellipse location surrounding the three main Hot Spots in all three maps.
The Shape of the Standard Deviational Ellipse is more circular, meaning that most of the values are concentrated at the mean. As for the Orientation, the major axis is angled from Southeast to Norwest. That suggests clusters of low values are Orentation located in the northwest of Texas. All three ellipsis' locations and orientations have no significant change.
Texas Counties Clip Projected Directional Distribution
Summary
Based on the hot spot analysis and the cluster and outlier analysis, we can conclude that covid-19 is expanding in major cities, specifically in the Houston and Dallas area.
This is more evident when you look at the Global Moran's I report. The z-score and p-value reject the null hypothesis.
It does not seem to be contained in those major cities since the Standard Deviational Ellipse on all four maps has some significant changes.
