Teacher Workforce: Impact on Education Policy

1. Understand the supply of teachers across the county and in your state
2. Understand the future demand for teachers across the country and in your state
3. Understand the implications of teacher supply and demand imbalances
4. Discuss possible solutions to address imbalances

Many factors contribute to the teacher workforce. This lesson will provide information about the supply and demand of teachers in the United States and give some insight into the implications of the data. The number of people enrolling in and completing teacher preparation programs (TPP) has been dropping. The number of TPP completers per year dropped by 28 percent from 213,822 per year in 2010 to 154,517 in 2021.  And while the number of students enrolled in K‒12 schools in America is expected to decline by 6.7 percent between 2021 and 2031, the number of teachers is expected to stay relatively stable or even increase depending on which model you use. When this stark imbalance in expected supply of and demand for teachers meets the law of supply and demand, something will have to change.

First, we will examine estimations of the demand for new teachers.  Demand for K‒12 teachers has historically seen a steady increase since the establishment of the country. In the early decades, teacher demand could be seen to be tied to the number of students. However, since the 1970s, the increase in demand for teachers has been impervious to changes in the number of students which peaked in 2018. This is primarily due to the educational philosophy that smaller class sizes lead to stronger educational outcomes for all students. As the graph based on estimates from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) shows, the student to teacher ratio in the United States is projected to continue its downward trend into the 2030s which means demand for teachers can be expected to remain at minimum constant.

While the total number of teachers is expected to increase only slightly based on NCES projections of total teacher workforce, occupational projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) consider not just change in the overall number of teachers, but also demand created by replacing teachers who exit the labor force – such as retirees – as well as replacing those who transfer out of teaching for jobs in other industries. These projections present a much higher level of demand for new teachers even if the total number of teachers remains steady.

One major aspect of supply on which there is very little data is the number of former teachers who return to teaching after an absence. National data show between 25 and 40 percent of new hires are former teachers returning to the occupation after an absence of at least one year.  ¹   Only Texas had strong, up-to-date state data on the number of newly hired teachers who were returning to the workforce. In Texas, about one-third of newly hired teachers were classified as reenters. Unfortunately, other states do not produce sufficient data on reenters to make state-level estimates. Based on these admittedly limited data points, we assume 30 percent of the annual demand will be met by returning teachers. While the inclusion of returning teachers bolsters the supply produced by TPPs, gaps between supply and demand will still exist in many states.

The major driver of openings in the teacher occupation is not growth. It is turnover. Even in states that estimate a decrease in the number of teachers in a specific occupation, there can still be more openings than TPP completers. And the data showing declining enrollment in TPPs suggest the problem will continue to grow for those states with shortfalls.

The imbalance between teacher supply and demand is a two-sided problem which can be approached from both. First, states can bolster participation in TPPs. Every state has a “Grow Your Own” teacher program. These programs are a good example of states producing bespoke versions of a common policy program. Each state's program contains different elements such as target participants, supports offered, and timelines. But what these programs all have in common is the intent to increase the number of people entering the teacher pipeline and encouraging local community members to become teachers in their community.  ^2,3  

The pressure on the demand side of the teacher equation can be eased by implementing programs to decrease departures from both workforce exits and occupational transfers. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated pressures on the teaching profession, providing motivation for districts to carefully examine, or in some cases create, their teacher retention plans.

Most states continue to have backloaded retirement systems which are meant to encourage longevity. But these same practices can have the unintended effect of pushing out experienced teachers through young-age retirements and by encouraging early departures for new teachers who are unsure they want to teach for 25 to 30 years. These unsure teachers may decide to leave teaching earlier than they otherwise would since they will receive greatly reduced or no retirement benefits if they don’t stay for the long haul. Districts and states can modify their personnel policies such as pay structures to stave off teacher departures. Some states allow top-offs to pension plans, usually referred to as delayed retirement plans (DROPs), which make it fiscally valuable for teachers to continue teaching even after meeting retirement criteria.  ⁴