Sea Level Rise in Venice, Los Angeles
Visualizing how this coastal city will be affected by predicted sea-level rise in the next decades
Study Area
Venice is a residential neighborhood in the west side of Los Angeles, California. It is well-known for its artistic and recreational aspects. Due to its coastal nature, Venice attracts all activities like surfing, touring and dining. Take a look at some of the activities this site offers.
Explore Venice
Click on numbers to see the kinds of activities Venice offers
Why Venice?
Climate Change
Predictions
Recent studies have shown that the Los Angeles area is one of the many metropolitan areas that is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, which include sea level rise. Different studies have shown that sea levels may reach "3 feet by 2100" in California, while other reports have shown that the worse-case scenario for Southern California includes 10 feet of sea level rise. (NRC, 2012; Griggs et al., 2017)
Satellite Data: 1993-Present
Data source: Satellite sea level observations. Credit: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
"Sea level rise is caused primarily by two factors related to global warming: the added water from melting ice sheets and glaciers and the expansion of seawater as it warms." -NASA
Recent News
Furthermore, recent El Nino events have already showed that drastic effects of high tides that led to flooding and erosion in 2010. Such weather events are only expected to increase in frequency and intensity in future years. (Ruig et al., 2019)
Heavy rains and flooding in California on December 22, 2010. Source: REUTERS/Mike Blake
Venice's Vulnerabilities
Due to Los Angeles' low elevation and high volume of coastal economic assets, adaption strategies are crucial for the long-term well-being of this region. (Ruig et al., 2019)
As shown earlier, Venice, Los Angeles' beach connector, thrives through its many activities including small and large businesses spread out in its coastal Boardwalk.
Questions & Scenarios
Guiding Questions
Based on sea level rise scenarios for 1ft and 7ft of sea level rise, what parts of the area do we expect to see inundated?
What percent of Venice will be affected by sea level rise and what are the implications for businesses in the coastal area of Venice ?
Best and Worst Case Scenarios
This map shows 1 foot (lighter blue) and 7 feet (darker shade of blue) of sea level rise in the Venice area.
1 foot of SLR
This map focuses on the 1 foot SLR scenario to show the areas that are expected to experience Sea Level Rise.
Additionally, this map shows the confidence levels of what is predicted. Note that the areas highlighted in yellow are "uncertain areas" meaning that its predicted state could be either wet or dry.
7 Feet of SLR
This map focuses on the 7 feet SLR scenario to show the areas that are expected to experience Sea Level Rise.
Additionally, this map shows the confidence levels of what is predicted. Note that the areas highlighted in yellow are "uncertain areas" meaning that its predicted state could be either wet or dry.
Business in Venice
The map shows the business distribution across Los Angeles, particularly the one in Venice. In terms of business density, Venice has a relatively high number of businesses. The sea level rise overlay shows the area that would no longer be accessible due to flooding.
Statistics
After doing some overlay percent cover analysis on ArcGIS, I calculated the percent sea level rise cover would impede of Venice's total area.
1 ft of SLR
In the case of 1 foot of sea level rise, 4% of Venice's area will be covered by water.
This calculation takes into account Venice's land area of 88693981.347 square feet. Additionally, it considers the layer cover of 1 foot of SLR which is expected to cover 3754593.618 square feet.
7 ft of SLR
In the case of 1 foot of sea level rise, 24% of Venice's area will be covered by water.
This calculation takes into account Venice's land area of 88693981.347 square feet. Additionally, it considers the layer cover of 7 feet of SLR which is expected to cover 21564743.31 square feet.
Implications
The Venice Boardwalk includes many make-shift shops and a beach-facing shops. Based on SLR predictions, much of this area is expected to be flooded.
When we consider the impacts of Sea Level Rise, the calculations predict that much of what Venice is known for will be impacted by water infiltration. Much of the percent cover will impact the long-term success of these businesses and therefore have an impact on jobs, tourism and services of Venice.
As of 2019, Venice has over 1, 464 business establishments alone. Such establishments would be threatened in the face of flooding and storms. Recent city reports have shown that the local economy will be impacted as temporary inundation becomes more prominent.
This isn't novel news, reports dating back for years have predicted such sea level levels and the city has released multiple assessments that look more closely into climate adaption strategies. ( Hazard Mitigation Pla n, Venice Coastal Zone Assessment )
"Some coastal communities, especially Venice, are home to highly vulnerable populations who may be unable to adapt to impacts of sea level rise because of social or economic challenges, including lower per capita income, lower education levels, linguistic isolation, older housing stock and high percentage of renters." -Hazard Mitigation Plan (2018)
Moving Forward
Currently, the city has released various reports including the LA Hazard Mitigation Plan in 2018 to further explain the negative impacts of Sea Level Rise. Additionally, the city has considered a 10-year scenario adaption strategy to plan more pragmatic land use practices and development.
Additional steps that should be taken include running closer analysis to identify individual businesses that will be impacted. The city should collaborate with local organizations, including those businesses to create practical climate adaption plans.
Methods
- Downloaded sea level rise scenario data setsData set included 1ft and 7ft SLR and their perspective confidence intervals and flood frequencies ( https://coast.noaa.gov/slrdata/ )
- Downloaded DEM, city boundaries, neighborhood boundary, shore boundaries from city's gis portal http://geohub.lacity.org/
- Downloaded business establishment data from Simply Analytics
- Imported all files into ArcMap
- Projected layers to a projected coordinate system using the Project tool:NAD_1983_UTM_Zone_11N
- Adjusted symbology (very thoroughly) and transparency
- Created shapefiles for surrounding areas to highlight the study area
- Executed map overlay tools:Used the intersect tool to combine “sea level rise” layers in each scenario
- Used union tool to combine necessary shapefiles together
- Implemented the calculate geometry tool to calculate the area for shapefiles of interest; particularly the total area of venice and the area cover of sea level rise
- Used Spatial joins: Joined tables between Venice shapefile and sea level rise layers to compare shape area
- Used the field calculator to calculate the percent cover
Sources
Board, O. S., & National Research Council. (2012). Sea-level rise for the coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: past, present, and future. National Academies Press.
G. Griggs, D. Cayan, C. Tebaldi, H.A. Fricker, J. Arvai, R. DeConto, R.E. Kopp Rising Seas in California: An Update on Sea-Level Rise Science (2017), p. 71
Lars T. de Ruig, Patrick L. Barnard, W.J. Wouter Botzen, Phyllis Grifman, Juliette Finzi Hart, Hans de Moel, Nick Sadrpour, Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts, An economic evaluation of adaptation pathways in coastal mega cities: An illustration for Los Angeles, Science of The Total Environment, Volume 678, 2019, Pages 647-659, ISSN 0048-9697, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.308 . ( http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969719318431 )
Sea Level. (2020, April 21). Retrieved May 12, 2020, from https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
Note: Business Data is sourced from SimplyAnalytics and reflects 2019 reports.
