DMV Atlas | Accelerating Equitable Regional Growth

From May 2020 to May 2021,  Connected DMV  convened the COVID-19  Strategic Renewal Task Force  comprising 51 government, industry, academia, and community leaders to launch strategic initiatives to enable regional economic renewal and social equity in Greater Washington.

In July 2020, Task Force members commissioned a Steering Committee to develop a  Regional Economic Development Strategy (REDS)  to drive our region forward. On June 3, 2021, the Steering Committee released the REDS 1.0 (September 2020 – May 2021) report,  One: A Blueprint for Enduring Collaboration to Advance Economic Opportunity and Equity in Greater Washington .

Map: Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments Member Jurisdictions

During REDS 1.0, a Working Group conducted research on how access to quality education, employment, and income is unevenly distributed in the DMV, often along east-to-west and racial and ethnic lines.

The DMV boasts a wealth of assets, talent, access, and promise yet our region lags unacceptably in key economic competitiveness measures nationally. The latest data from The Brookings Institution’s Metro Monitor 2021 (ranked out of 53 metro areas) confirms that economic inequality in the DMV is still increasing.

While local jurisdictions and regional agencies have undertaken valuable efforts to protect some of the region’s most vulnerable, our national history of systematic racism and discriminatory policy and development practices have led to unequal prosperity distributed geographically and  racially  throughout the  region .

The population and racial makeup and distribution of the DMV have changed drastically in the past 40 years.  Between 2000 and 2013 , DC had the highest percentage of gentrifying neighborhoods in the country. Gentrification is a powerful force for neighborhood revitalization and economic investment; however, it displaces original residents from the area as house prices and cost of living increase. From 2000 to 2013, 20,000 Black residents were displaced from low-income neighborhoods, primarily in eastern DC.  In 2016 , the median household income for Black residents was $38,000 while for white residents it was $126,000. The median net worth of residents reveals deeper inequities, with white households in DC having 81 times the net worth of Black families.

In developing an understanding of regional inequity and opportunity in the DMV, we used the  Opportunity Atlas  from  Opportunity Insights , an organization founded by Raj Chetty and Nathaniel Hendren from Harvard University, and John Friedman from Brown University.

The researchers took a sample of 20.5 million Americans born between 1978 and 1983 (94% of children born at the time), mapping the individuals to Census tracts they grew up in and measuring parental and child income using Federal income tax returns. The Opportunity Atlas visualizes the average outcome (earnings by percentile) for children in each neighborhood in America by demographic subgroup (race, gender, and parental income). 

According to the Opportunity Atlas, Greater Washington—when viewed as one region—affords children a greater level of economic mobility than most large metros, ranking 13th out of the 50 largest regions. On average, a child who grew up in the region with parents who were at the 25th percentile (about $27,000 of annual household income adjusted to 2014–2015 dollars) can expect to reach the 43rd percentile (about $34,000) in their early 30s. 

At the county level, however, the mobility picture varies dramatically. Fairfax County and Montgomery County rank 2nd and 12th, respectively, out of the 150 largest counties in economic mobility. In Fairfax County, the average child raised at the 25th percentile of income eventually reaches the 51st percentile. In contrast, Prince George’s County and the District of Columbia rank 107th and 142nd, respectively.

The map below shows non-Hispanic white residents on the left and Black residents on the right. This data shows alarmingly that the DMV’s East-West disparity in economic mobility is primarily driven by race. This reflects nationwide trends, wherein people of color—and especially Black men—have much lower rates of economic mobility than white residents. 

The map below demonstrates the outcomes of all individuals growing up in the 50th percentile ($43,000), revealing a clear East-West divide forming roughly along Interstate 95.

The western counties generally have upward mobility, and the eastern counties downward mobility. Blue shows upward mobility as children moved above the 50th percentile (>0.50) and earned over $43,000 into adulthood. Red shows downward mobility as children moved below the 50th percentile (<0.50) and earned less than $43,000 into adulthood.  

Click on a census tract and explore the data.

This section outlines the concept and planned work ahead for a data-driven DMV Atlas and leadership decision-support function. Aggregating, mapping, and analyzing data from important regional stakeholders will unearth new insights for improved cross-sector planning, partnerships, investment, and programming.

Building out the DMV Atlas will inform and provide decision-support to REDS, the DMV Regional Equity & Growth Playbook, and other regional initiatives. The DMV Atlas will be developed with funding from the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Economic Development Administration to support the  DMV Regional Equity and Growth Playbook  which aims to establish a unified regional structure and collaboration model across regional organizations and the public, private, academic, and community sectors in Greater Washington. The Playbook will be developed by Connected DMV in partnership with Federal City Council, the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments, and the Consortium of Universities of the Washington Metropolitan Area. Read more about the Playbook  here .

The systems that make up Greater Washington’s urban continuum are interconnected in fundamental ways. For example, the water system is a fundamental component of our health, energy, and transportation systems.

These interconnections are only fully realized when we begin to analyze the available data. Portland (OR), Seattle, San Francisco, Minneapolis–Saint Paul, and Charlotte are examples of metropolitan areas that pool and map data to draw insights into economic inequities on a regional scale. Greater Washington has a wealth of data whose value can be of the immense public good but is largely untapped today. 

The following four potential DMV Atlas use cases demonstrate how using regional data sets in new ways can improve analysis and drive better decision-making about equitable development. These use cases were chosen based on access to data and their potential to influence economic development decision-making to address the socioeconomic divide.   

The example below shows  Opportunity Atlas data  (50th percentile) overlayed with the  Capital Area Food Bank  Hunger Heat Map data (% of population food insecure). The resulting map demonstrates regional overlaps between food insecure populations and populations who had downward economic mobility, further highlighting the East-West divide.

Click the map to interact with the data

Below is an example of visualizing Brookings Metro Monitor 2021 rankings alongside the Opportunity Atlas. The DMV Atlas will integrate data from regional institutions. Dashboards and data visualizations tailored to the use cases will be developed in the coming months.

Click the dashboard to interact with the data

During REDS 2.0 (through December 2022), Connected DMV will lead a collaborative effort to plan, design, and build the first release of the DMV Atlas. We will:

• Convene stakeholders to build the case for regional and cross-sector collaboration on data collection, mapping, metrics, and priority opportunities to drive equitable outcomes.
• Establish priority use cases to demonstrate utility and impact
• Develop agreements and methods for data collection, aggregation, and maintenance; collect and collate regional assets to be mapped as a baseline, and establish a public-facing dashboard to drive new insights.
• Design equity-by-design feedback loops at key stages of planning and evaluation of regional projects and initiatives, including a program to provide insights to decision-makers in the public and private sectors at strategic moments during periodic governance, planning, and budgeting cycles.
• Align with the REDS 2.0 Equitable Development “ Theory of Change ” workshop series, community outreach, and mapping effort to develop regional consensus on desired outcomes and work backward to identify necessary preconditions and inputs to inform DMV Atlas functions, pilots, and outcomes.
• Further develop this StoryMap to socialize the need for an enduring regional atlas, and to present progress of the initiative.

The problems we need to solve, from talent development and COVID-19 recovery, to economic renewal, transcend political boundaries and agency missions. Utilizing cross-sector data to assist with regional analysis, planning, and evaluation is key to improving how we all live, work, and play in the future.

To get involved in shaping a prosperous and responsible economic future for the DMV, visit the  REDS webpage  and send us a message below.

Come join the action!