A cold front moved across North Carolina on Monday night (12/2) and Tuesday (12/3). A very cold arctic airmass moved into the state behind the front, as a high pressure system moved into the Great Lakes region (see below). Low temperatures on Wednesday morning (12/4) fell into the teens across the mountains, the 20s across much of the Piedmont and 30s across the Coastal Plain and Coastal Region. Indicative of an arctic airmass, dew points across central North Carolina ranged from -2 to 5 degrees F.

Weather Pattern

Analysis map showing ice (freezing rain and drizzle) accumulation across North Carolina. Amounts ranged from at least a trace of ice over much of North Carolina, with up to one half to one inch of ice in a swath from just north of Charlotte to Warrenton.

Freezing rain accumulation for the December 4-5, 2002, winter storm.

The NWS forecast office in Raleigh issued winter storm warnings for 22 counties in central North Carolina. Advanced lead time for the warnings ranged from 13 to 28 hours. All 22 warnings verified with total ice accumulations from freezing rain exceeding the warning threshold of 1/4 inch. Here are some of the points that NWS forecasters emphasized to issue the accurate warnings:

  • Given the Miller type “B” pattern of cyclogenesis with an accompanying strong “wedge” from cold air damming, forecasters expected a precipitation type distribution characterized by corridors of predominant precipitation types.

State Climate Office looks back: https://climate.ncsu.edu/blog/2015/12/nc-extremes-an-ice-storm-for-the-ages/

An additional thanks to various NWS Raleigh staff including: Gail Hartfield, Aaron Swiggett, Daniel Leins, amoung others, who gave new life to this older case study within the ESRI ArcGIS Online StoryMap framework.

Surface analysis maps

created by the NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC), formerly the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC).

Freezing rain accumulation for the December 4-5, 2002, winter storm.