Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)

Ethiopia announced plans to build the Dam on the Blue Nile River with the potential to supply over 5000MW of electricity which would make it the largest hydropower project on the continent.

Shortly after that, Egypt protested, citing a pre-colonial agreement that gave Egypt exclusive control over the Nile waters upstream.

The Ethiopian government signed a contract with Salini Impregilo S.p.A to build the Grand Renaissance Dam Project at the cost of US$4.8 billion, and the then Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi laid a foundation stone effectively commencing construction works.

That year a tripartite committee met for the first time over the GERD project and its effect on Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan.

President Mohamed Morsi of Egypt visited Ethiopia with hopes of making Ethiopia appreciate Egypt's concerns.

Ethiopia diverts the Nile waters to begin construction of the actual dam wall. With President Morsi's regime overthrown in Egypt, and talks stall for a while before resuming.

In 2014 real progress appeared when Egypt under President El-Sisi agreed that Ethiopia could develop the Grand Renaissance Dam Project under certain conditions. This agreement was in line with the Malabo Declaration. Several committees, experts, and consultants provided recommendations and staved off any future disputes. By this time, the Dam was 32 percent complete.

An agreement signed between the three countries called the Declaration of Principles.

Although this disagreement simmers between Egypt and Ethiopia over the technical studies being done.

Finally, the three countries signed technical studies on the impact of the Dam downstream. A disagreement, however, arises over Egypt's proposal for more holes in the Dam.

Failure to reach agreement on an agreement on a report from the technical studies persists.

Sisi and Abiy Ahmed agreed on resuming cooperation efforts

Ethiopia rejected Egypt's proposal to involve the World Bank as a technical party with an impartial view to decide on the differences in the work of the Tripartite National Committee.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry announced that an agreement had been reached during the tripartite summit on ending the technical studies of the Grand Renaissance Dam within a month and further emphasized Egypt's commitment to the Declaration of Principles.

President El-Sisi said he agreed with the Ethiopian Prime Minister Ahmed to enhance confidence and cooperation between the two countries. And that the two countries would work on a final agreement on the GERD issue that would ensure development and prosperity to the Ethiopian people and uphold Egypt's water needs and rights.

Negotiations stumbled and resumed, Egypt and Ethiopia's leaders address the issue at the 74th UNGA

Egypt's Foreign Minister Shoukry called for negotiations on the Dam to pick up the pace and demanded that the agreements reached between the three involved countries be respected.

After months of suspension, Egypt requested a new round of negotiations between the three countries on filling the GERD reservoir and its rules of operation. With the request granted, the three countries launched talks in Cairo. However, the negotiations failed after Ethiopia rejected Egypt's proposal, saying that it infringed on its sovereignty.

On September 24, Egypt President Sisi and his Ethiopian counterpart Sahle-Work Zewde addressed the GERD issue at the UNGA's 74th session. President El-Sisi called for international intervention in the negotiations and insisted that "Nile water is a matter of life and an issue of existence for Egypt." On his part, President Zewde made assurances of Ethiopia's commitment to reaching a deal over GERD.

A tripartite technical committee finalized four-day talks in Khartoum, Sudan, and presented their final report on the outcomes to the three countries' irrigation ministers. Soon after, a new round of meetings between the irrigation and water resources ministers kicked off in Khartoum.

The ministries' negotiations' spokesperson revealed that talks had reached a dead end due to the "intransigency" of the Ethiopian side. The United States then called on the three sides to "put forth good faith efforts to reach an agreement that preserves those rights, while simultaneously respecting each other's Nile water equities."

Conflict moves to African Union

In July, the conflict over the commencement of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) moved to the African Union (AU) for resolution after Ethiopia strongly opposed arbitration by the United Nations Security Council during a video conference on June 29.

Egypt took the matter to the  UN Security Council . Still, with South Africa's support (the African Union chair), Ethiopia lobbied for the continental body to handle the issue first. 

During the same month, the Chairperson of the African Union and President of South Africa Cyril Ramaphosa welcomed trilateral talks between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan on the controversial Grand Renaissance Dam Project. They appealed to the involved parties to find solutions and reach an amicable agreement.

Ethiopia acknowledged the water levels behind the giant Dam increased, and filling began. However, according to Seleshi Bekele, Ethiopia's water minister, the GERD water filling aligns with the Dam's natural construction process. He further added that the inflow into the reservoir due to heavy rainfall and runoff exceeded the outflow and created natural pooling. Such a trend continues until overflow is triggered soon.

Ethiopia's Office of the Prime Minister announces that the first round of filling the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is completed and hinted that it will generate electricity in a few months.

In August, Sudan, Egypt, and Ethiopia concluded a new round of talks without reaching a consensus on a draft deal to the African Union (AU) regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

According to Sudan's Irrigation and Water Resources Ministry, the three countries agreed to conclude the current round of talks without consensus on the draft integrated deal, which was supposed to be at the AU on Friday. "Continuation of the talks in their current form will not lead to achieving practical results," said Yasir Abbas.

Elsewhere, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo approved a plan to halt US foreign assistance to Ethiopia as the US government attempts to mediate a dispute with Egypt and Sudan over the construction of GERD.

The decision could affect nearly US $130m in US foreign assistance to Ethiopia and fuel new tensions in the relationship between Washington and Addis Ababa as Ethiopia carries out plans to fill the Dam.

In October, Ethiopia's Minister of Water, Irrigation and Energy, Dr. Seleshi Bekele, announced that Ethiopia will start generating electricity from the controversial Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) over the coming 12 months. According to the minister, the project's performance increased by 2.5% to 76.35% in the first quarter due to efforts made to enable the Dam to start generating power with two turbines in Ethiopian fiscal year (2020/21). The minister added that construction works at the Dam are now at 76.35%. Ethiopian authorities recently banned all flights over the GERD "for security reasons."

In Early November, Sudan, Egypt, and Ethiopia resumed talks. The week-long negotiations held via videoconference included water ministers from the three countries and representatives from the African Union, the European Union, and the World Bank.

In late February, Ethiopia's Minister of Water, Irrigation, and Energy Engineer Seleshi Bekele announced that Ethiopia is keenly working on completing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project by 2023, considering the Dam as a water security threat is unfounded and unscientific. He further added that the construction of GERD had reached 78.3% and will increase up to 82% until the upcoming rainy season.

According to Seleshi, the overall construction of the Dam demonstrated rapid development following the swift measures taken by the reformist administration to ensure professionalism. The administrative adjustments have solved the most critical problems related to the decision-making and follow-up system.

"The new administration and the board jointly with the Ministry and Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP) have solved the factors that led to the construction delay before the reform in 2018. Solving the major problems and undertaking continuous follow-up, assessment and evaluation enabled the country to return the construction of the massive power plant on the right track. Therefore, the GERD will be fully operational by 2023 as per the reschedule," he said.

During the same period, Ethiopia's Ministry of Water, Irrigation, and Energy published a new satellite image of the construction progress at its controversial large Dam on the Blue Nile River. The picture clearly showed that the Dam's reservoir has a stable water level, which has reached the level of the concrete wall.

In early March, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry and his Sudanese counterpart Mariam al-Sadiq al-Mahdi stressed that Ethiopia's possible second phase filling of the Nile dam unilaterally would pose a direct threat to the water security of Egypt and Sudan.

The two ministers highlighted the importance of reaching a binding legal agreement on filling and operating the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) that would preserve the water rights of Egypt and Sudan and limit the damages of the project to the two downstream countries.

Shoukry and his Sudanese counterpart also stressed that they have the political will and an earnest desire to achieve this goal at the earliest possible opportunity, urging Ethiopia to show goodwill and engage in an effective negotiation process.

The two ministers also affirmed that their countries adhere to the proposal made by Sudan and supported by Egypt on developing the negotiation mechanism sponsored by the African Union through the formation of an international quartet led and managed by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the current chair of the African Union.They also expressed appreciation for the efforts made by South Africa during its presidency of the African Union in guiding the path of the GERD negotiations.

In Mid-March, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi and his counterpart of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) Felix Tshisekedi discussed the Nile dam dispute between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia over the phone.

During the conversation, Sisi reiterated Egypt's position that calls for reaching a legally binding agreement on the rules of filling and operating the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) before the next rainy season to preserve the water rights of the downstream countries. Sisi also affirmed Egypt's support for the Sudanese proposal to form an international quartet under the chairmanship of the African Union to mediate the Nile dam dispute.

Around the same period, Sudan submitted a formal request for quadripartite international mediation to resolve the dispute with Ethiopia over the Dam. Sudanese Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdouk sent letters to the US, the European Union (EU), the African Union (AU), and the United Nations (UN), asking them to mediate in negotiations. All engaging parties hope that their involvement will help solve the dispute overfilling and operating the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

In late March, the Sudanese information minister announced that Sudan's cabinet had backed an initiative for the United Arab Emirates to mediate disputes over Sudan's border with Ethiopia and GERD.

Tensions surrounding the control of farmland in al-Fashqa, on the border, have escalated in recent months. At the same time, talks over the operation of the GERD, which will affect water volume downstream in the Sudanese portion of the Blue Nile, are deadlocked.

The Foreign and Water Affairs of Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan held a meeting in Kinshasa to resume the trilateral negotiation GERD under the auspices of the African Union. After the 4th day of negotiations, the talks seemed to have broken down. Ethiopia insists it cannot enter into an agreement that would foreclose its current and future legitimate rights over the utilization of the Nile.

In early April, it was reported that a new round of African Union-mediated talks between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan had begun. The three-day talks that kicked off on the 3rd were taking place in Kinshasa, the capital of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the current chair of the AU. According to Ethiopia's Irrigation Minister Seleshi Bekele, Foreign and irrigation ministers of the three nations attended the talks and AU experts.

After the 4th day of negotiations, the talks seemed to have broken down. Egypt's Foreign Ministry said in a statement that Ethiopia had a "lack of political will to negotiate in good faith." A Congolese mediator noted that Sudan had objected to the terms of a draft communique to complicate proceedings further. The country felt that its interests in the River Nile were under threat.

Later, Ethiopia announced that it would continue filling the Dam's massive reservoir during the upcoming rainy season, which usually begins in June or July, sparking new warnings from downstream countries Sudan and Egypt, which are worried about their water supply.

Sudan's irrigation minister warned that his country stood ready to harden its stance in the dispute and lobby afresh at the highest international levels, including the UN Security Council. In contrast, the Egyptian president warned Ethiopia over touching a drop of Egypt's water because all options are open.

Later that week, reports emerged that Sudan had received an Ethiopian offer to share details on the second filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) to ease Sudanese, regional and international pressure on Addis Ababa.

In mid-April, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced that the second filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) will proceed as planned for July/August.

"Ethiopia, in developing Abbay (Blue Nile) River for its needs, has no intention of causing harm to lower riparian countries. Heavy rains last year enabled successful first filling of the GERD while the presence of the GERD itself has undoubtedly prevented severe flooding in neighboring Sudan," said the PM.

"Ahead of the second filling, Ethiopia is releasing more water from last year's storage through newly completed outlets & sharing information. The next filling occurs only during heavy rainfall months of July/August, ensuring benefits in reducing floods in Sudan," he added.

In early May, Sudan's Irrigation Minister Yasser Abbas said that legal teams in Sudan are willing to sue the Ethiopian government over the Grand Renaissance Dam Project if they started the second filling unilaterally.

The Sudanese Minister of Irrigation added that his country would conduct several visits to African countries during the coming period to explain Sudan's position on resolving the Renaissance Dam issue. He also affirmed that his government is still adhering to resolving the issue through negotiations to protect water security interests.

In mid-May, the USA affirmed its commitment to working with international partners to find a solution to the differences between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

The US Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa, Jeffrey Feltman, said in a statement at the end of his visit to Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, and Ethiopia, that he discussed with leaders in Addis Ababa, Cairo, and Khartoum. He stated that "Egypt and Sudan's concerns over water security, and how the safety and operation of the dam can be reconciled with Ethiopia's development needs through substantive and results-oriented negotiations among the parties under the leadership of the African Union, which must resume urgently," read the statement.

"We believe that the 2015 Declaration of Principles signed by the parties and the July 2020 statement by the AU Bureau are important foundations for these negotiations, and the United States is committed to providing political and technical support to facilitate a successful outcome," the media note of the US Department of State added.

In late May, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry announced that Egypt has already taken precautionary measures to mitigate the potential impacts of the second filing of the GERD. Both Egypt and Sudan seek to form an international quartet that includes the African Union (AU), the United States, the European Union, and the United Nations to reach the desired agreement.