Learn all about the Northeast River Forecast Center (NERFC): our history, operations duties, the local area, and how to join our team!
A StoryMap developed by the staff of Northeast RFC
Our Mission
The National Weather Service mission is to provide weather, water and climate data, forecasts, warnings, and impact-based decision support services for the protection of life and property and enhancement of the national economy.
The National Weather Service vision is of A Weather-Ready Nation, where society is prepared for and responds to weather, water, and climate-dependent events.
The National Weather Service (NWS) is within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which itself is within the U.S. Department of Commerce. River Forecast Centers are just one part of the National Weather Service organizational structure.
The NWS is comprised of a variety of field offices including: National Centers, Regional Offices, Weather Forecast Offices, and River Forecast Centers. At the River Forecast Center, we work closely with multiple National Centers, as well as the National Water Center.
An organizational chart of the National Weather Service Field offices including National Centers, Regional Offices, River Forecast Centers, and Weather Forecast Offices.
Thirteen (13) River Forecast Centers, or RFCs, serve the nation. Boundaries of the RFCs are largely based on river basin boundaries. The nation's largest river system, the Mississippi River drainage, is split among multiple RFCs due to its sheer size, but most of the other RFCs are self-contained.
A map of the 13 River Forecast Center boundaries across the United States.
The service area for Northeast RFC covers all of New England and a large portion of New York State (the area highlighted in the image). Our primary partners in river forecast services are the eight NWS Weather Forecast Offices within our service area:
A map of the Northeast River Forecast Center Boundary with the boundaries of the neighboring Weather Forecast Offices.
Office History
The Northeast River Forecast Center (originally called the Hartford River Forecast Center) was opened in Windsor Locks, CT in September of 1955, following the devastating floods of August 1955. It was established with appropriations providing for the expansion of the River Forecast program after the costly 1954 hurricane season. The office moved to the federal building in Hartford in 1968, then to Bloomfield, CT in 1975.
Photo: Flooding from Hurricane Diane in August 1955
An image of a photographer standing in flood waters during the flooding of Hurricane Diane.
In 1993 the office moved again, this time to be co-located with the Boston/Taunton Weather Forecast Office in Taunton, MA.
Both offices later moved to a brand new building in Norton, MA in 2018.
A timeline of the five pervious Northeast River Forecast Center Locations including: Windsor Locks CT, Hartford CT, Bloomfield CT, Taunton MA, and Norton, MA.
Our Service Area
The Northeast River Forecast Center (NERFC) is responsible for issuing river forecasts for much of the northeastern United States. The forecast region of the NERFC includes portions of the following states: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island and New York. The concentration of large cities is a notable feature of the region, resulting in us serving approximately 10% of the US population. Click on the map to navigate around the region and explore the various watersheds.
Great Lakes
Great Lakes. Click to expand.
The Great Lakes group includes the basins that enter the lower Great Lakes (Erie and Ontario) and covers much of western New York, including Buffalo and Niagara metropolitan areas, the Finger Lakes, and the Tug Hill Plateau. The photo above is of the Black River near Boonville, NY.
St. Lawrence
St. Lawrence. Click to expand.
Encompassing the Northern Adirondacks, the St. Lawrence basin is made of several smaller rivers which flow northward into Canada and the St. Lawrence River. During the spring, snow melt from the Northern Adirondacks can account for 20% of the discharge in the St. Lawrence River. Image above is of the Raquette River near South Colton, NY.
Lake Champlain
Lake Champlain. Click to expand.
Lake Champlain is fed by numerous streams, rivers, and tributaries, encompassing an extensive web of waterways in New York State and Vermont. Lake Champlain drains to the north, feeding the Richelieu River in Quebec, Canada. The photo above is of the Otter Creek floodplain near Center Rutland, VT.
Hudson River
Hudson River. Click to expand.
One of our most prominent forecast groups stretches from the Adirondack Mountains in upstate New York, through the Hudson Valley, before reaching New York City and flowing into the Atlantic Ocean. The basin has many dams and reservoirs for flood control, recreation, and drinking water for America’s largest city. The Erie canal was the first navigable waterway to connect the Atlantic Ocean with the Great Lakes. The Hudson River is tidally influenced up to Albany, NY, and cargo shipping is still conducted up the river to that city. The photo above is of the Schoharie Reservoir in the Catskill Mountains of New York State.
Connecticut River
Connecticut River. Click to expand.
The Connecticut River basin is a significant watershed in the northeastern United States. It is the border between two states, Vermont and New Hampshire. The river is the longest in New England, stretching 406 miles from its source in northern New Hampshire to its mouth at Long Island Sound. Numerous flood control reservoirs and dams were installed after hurricane-induced flooding in the 1950s and 60s. The photo above is the Connecticut River in the Berkshire Mountains of MA.
Southern New England
Southern New England. Click to expand.
Our most atypical sub-basin group is characterized by diverse geography and comprises numerous smaller rivers in Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts, which terminate in Long Island Sound and the Atlantic Ocean. The Blackstone River in Rhode Island powered the beginning of American manufacturing. The photo above is of the Gainer Memorial Dam in RI.
Merrimack River
Merrimack River. Click to expand.
Spanning parts of New Hampshire and Massachusetts, the headwaters of this basin starts with the Pemigewasset River in the White Mountains of New Hampshire. The Pemigewasset River rapidly travels southward until the confluence of the Winnipesaukee River where the Merrimack River begins. The Merrimack then travels south through southern New Hampshire and starts meandering through more urban areas of Massachusetts before eventually reaching the Atlantic Ocean. The photo above is of the East Branch Pemigewasset River in NH.
Gulf of Maine
Gulf of Maine. Click to expand.
Our largest drainage basin, encompassing the entire state of Maine and the eastern part of New Hampshire. Ice jams and breakups are a high priority for this area, as many rivers will develop widespread thick ice coverage during the winters. Another primary forecast focus is the delivery of freshwater and nutrients into the marine ecosystem, affecting a vast part of the region's fisheries and coastal economies. The photo above is of the Piscataquis River near Dover-Foxcroft, ME.
Great Lakes
The Great Lakes group includes the basins that enter the lower Great Lakes (Erie and Ontario) and covers much of western New York, including Buffalo and Niagara metropolitan areas, the Finger Lakes, and the Tug Hill Plateau. The photo above is of the Black River near Boonville, NY.
St. Lawrence
Encompassing the Northern Adirondacks, the St. Lawrence basin is made of several smaller rivers which flow northward into Canada and the St. Lawrence River. During the spring, snow melt from the Northern Adirondacks can account for 20% of the discharge in the St. Lawrence River. Image above is of the Raquette River near South Colton, NY.
Lake Champlain
Lake Champlain is fed by numerous streams, rivers, and tributaries, encompassing an extensive web of waterways in New York State and Vermont. Lake Champlain drains to the north, feeding the Richelieu River in Quebec, Canada. The photo above is of the Otter Creek floodplain near Center Rutland, VT.
Hudson River
One of our most prominent forecast groups stretches from the Adirondack Mountains in upstate New York, through the Hudson Valley, before reaching New York City and flowing into the Atlantic Ocean. The basin has many dams and reservoirs for flood control, recreation, and drinking water for America’s largest city. The Erie canal was the first navigable waterway to connect the Atlantic Ocean with the Great Lakes. The Hudson River is tidally influenced up to Albany, NY, and cargo shipping is still conducted up the river to that city. The photo above is of the Schoharie Reservoir in the Catskill Mountains of New York State.
Connecticut River
The Connecticut River basin is a significant watershed in the northeastern United States. It is the border between two states, Vermont and New Hampshire. The river is the longest in New England, stretching 406 miles from its source in northern New Hampshire to its mouth at Long Island Sound. Numerous flood control reservoirs and dams were installed after hurricane-induced flooding in the 1950s and 60s. The photo above is the Connecticut River in the Berkshire Mountains of MA.
Southern New England
Our most atypical sub-basin group is characterized by diverse geography and comprises numerous smaller rivers in Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts, which terminate in Long Island Sound and the Atlantic Ocean. The Blackstone River in Rhode Island powered the beginning of American manufacturing. The photo above is of the Gainer Memorial Dam in RI.
Merrimack River
Spanning parts of New Hampshire and Massachusetts, the headwaters of this basin starts with the Pemigewasset River in the White Mountains of New Hampshire. The Pemigewasset River rapidly travels southward until the confluence of the Winnipesaukee River where the Merrimack River begins. The Merrimack then travels south through southern New Hampshire and starts meandering through more urban areas of Massachusetts before eventually reaching the Atlantic Ocean. The photo above is of the East Branch Pemigewasset River in NH.
Gulf of Maine
Our largest drainage basin, encompassing the entire state of Maine and the eastern part of New Hampshire. Ice jams and breakups are a high priority for this area, as many rivers will develop widespread thick ice coverage during the winters. Another primary forecast focus is the delivery of freshwater and nutrients into the marine ecosystem, affecting a vast part of the region's fisheries and coastal economies. The photo above is of the Piscataquis River near Dover-Foxcroft, ME.
What We Do
In this section, the daily duties of the NERFC are shown. For more information about careers more broadly in Operational Hydrology in the NWS please visit this StoryMap.
01 / 06
NERFC analyzes hydrological data, including streamflow measurements, precipitation data, and other relevant information, to develop river stage forecasts. These forecasts estimate how river levels and discharge will change over time. The forecasts are utilized in many ways such as water management, recreation, environmental protection, and power generation.
An image of a map of the Northeastern United States with the River Forecast Center Administrative boundaries and the river forecast locations indicated.
Quality Control - RFCs gather and process data from various sources, such as stream gages, weather stations, and radar measurements. We ensure the quality of the data before using it in our forecast and forwarding it to the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI) for additional automatic quality checks and storage.
There are three photos in this slide image. The left most image of is a radar precipitation estimate created by the Northeast River Forecast Center. The middle image of is a collection of 24hr rain gages across the Northeast after a rain event. And the right most image is a photo of an automated precipitation gage in the field with a wind shield.
Provide Flood Forecasts - We work closely with Weather Forecast Offices which issue flood warnings and watches based on our river forecasts. Then continue to monitor and update the forecasts to support response efforts and facilitate preparedness activities. The images to the left show a river forecast and the associated flood warning polygon for the Yantic River in CT.
The left image is of a River Forecast Hydrograph for the Yantic River when it reach the Major Flood Threshold of over 11ft. The right image is of theNWS Flood Warning Polygon on a map that corresponds to the Yantic River in CT.
Specialized Services - The NERFC also provides specialized services tailored to the needs of our regions. These may include specific flood-related studies, dam-break operations, long- and short-term water supply forecasts, drought monitoring, and snowpack modeling.
In addition to the eight Weather Forecast Offices in our region, the NERFC works closely with the National Water Center located in Tuscaloosa, AL. The partnership between the RFCs and the NWC involves a synergistic exchange of data, models, and expertise. It aims to enhance the accuracy and timeliness of river forecasts, improve flood prediction capabilities, and support more informed water resource decision-making at local, regional, and national levels.
Beyond internal partners within NOAA and NWS, the RFC's work closely with a variety of federal partners such as: United States Geological Survey (USGS), the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
In addition to collaborating with federal agencies, we support work with State and Local Governments: NY Canal Corps, Departments of Environment Protection/Services, Water Management Authorities, and local emergency managers.
Outside of the United States, we also collaborate with the Quebec and New Brunswick provincial government by sharing our hydrological data and river forecasts for tributaries of the St. Lawrence River, the Richelieu River (outlet for Lake Champlain), and the St. John River.
Finally, we partner with private industry corporations to model and forecast water storage amounts in the reservoirs and discharges downstream of many hydroelectric power generation dams.
New and Emerging Services
Ensemble-Based Forecasts – The NERFC has a long history of providing “deterministic” forecasts (left image below). These forecasts are represented by a single trace on a hydrograph as shown, using the forecasters’ best estimates of precipitation, temperature, snowmelt, and soil moisture. Recently, the RFC has begun creating additional “probabilistic” forecasts (right image below), which are generated using ensembles of different precipitation inputs to the model. The precipitation inputs are created by tweaking different variables in the atmospheric models that drive forecasts. Probabilistic forecasts are commonly represented by an “envelope” of possible hydrologic responses, bounded within fixed probability ranges, and overlaid with the most likely (median) forecast from the ensemble. NERFC currently creates 3 different probabilistic forecasts for each forecast point, using different ensembles for each probabilistic forecast.
The left image is of the NWS river forecast for the Ausable River, NY on March 14, 2024
NWS river forecast for the Ausable River, NY on March 14, 2024. The right image is an ensemble of possible river flows for the Ausable River for March 14th, 2024
Flood Inundation Mapping – The National Weather Service has been introducing new experimental Flood Inundation Mapping (FIM) services across the nation. Those services are now available to 30% of the US population and will available for nearly 100% of the population by October 2026. For more information on the NWS FIM services, please visit the related StoryMap. The image below shows the scheduled rollout of the FIM services.
A map of the United States with coloring depicting when the NWS Flood Inundation Mapping services will be available: Oct 2023, 2024, 2025, or 2026.
Working at NERFC
The NERFC is collocated with the Boston WFO (BOX) and the office is located in Norton, MA.
An image generated with Google Maps with a pin indicating the location of Norton, MA.
Google Map Pin of Office Location
The office is right on the Norton/Taunton City line with populations of ~20k and 60k respectively. If you are interested in visiting or living in a larger metropolitan area the office is between Boston (~40 mi) and Providence (~25 mi).
A photograph of the downtown Boston Skyline with the ocean in the background.
View of Boston Skyline at Atlantic Avenue and Waterfront.
A photograph of downtown Providence, RI.
View of Downtown Providence and the Pedestrian Bridge.
A great perk to the NERFC location is its proximity to a variety of attractions within a day’s drive.
Being near Boston and Providence, there are many New England entertainment options including major sporting events, concert venues, museums, and parks.
A photograph of Fenway Ball Park in Boston, MA during a Red Sox Game.
The ocean is close by and there are numerous beaches including those on Cape Cod.
A photograph of a wooden staircase leading down to the ocean on Cape Code, MA.
If hiking and skiing are your thing, there are several mountain ranges that are not far as well. The Berkshires Mountains in western Massachusetts, the Green Mountains in Vermont and the White Mountains in New Hampshire are all nearby.
A photograph of the Berkshire Mountains, MA in the fall from the roadside.
Another benefit of living in Southern New England is that its climate offers a sampling of all the seasons!
A graph of the seasonal climate normal high/low temperatures and the average monthly precipitation.
The RFC has a full time staff of 13 which includes 3 managers, 7 hydrologists, and 3 meteorologists/HAS (Hydrometeorological Analysis and Support).
A organizational chart for the Northeast River Forecast Center.
The NERFC staff come from a geographical variety of educational institutions across the nation.
An image of a map showing alma matter across the united states of the staff of the Northeast River Forecast Center.
