2025 U.S. Spring Flood Outlook
This map is reflective of forecast conditions on March 20, 2025.
The information presented in this assessment focuses on spring flood potential, using methods analyzed on the timescale of weeks to months, not days or hours. Heavy rainfall at any time can lead to flooding, even in areas where overall risk is considered low. Rainfall intensity and location can only be accurately forecast days in the future; therefore, flood risk can change rapidly. For detailed hydrologic conditions and forecasts, go to water.weather.gov .
Be prepared: Visit weather.gov/safety/flood and follow @NOAA and @NWS on X (formerly Twitter).
The sections below quantify river flood risk based on the river location having a 50% or more likelihood of exceeding moderate or major flood levels.
Scroll through the following sections for an in-depth look at the nation's spring flooding potential. Click on the button-style and link-style map actions within the text to zoom into the specified area.
Current Flooding
Minor river flooding is ongoing and forecast to continue from East Texas through portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Lower Ohio Valley, and portions of the eastern coastal plain from previous heavy rainfall. Minor river flooding is forecast across portions of the Pacific Northwest from persistent rainfall associated with repeated atmospheric rivers. River ice is present in portions of Maine, which combined with rainfall and the melting of snow that is present, will present a risk of ice jam flooding through the remainder of March.
The outlook presented in this assessment is indicative of flood potential during the upcoming season, and not these ongoing events.
Potential Major Flood Areas
As of the date of this outlook, there are no areas expected to experience major flooding. Heavy rainfall at any time can lead to flooding, up to and including major flooding. Rainfall intensity and location can only be accurately forecast several days in the future; therefore, flood risk can change rapidly.
Potential Moderate Flood Areas
Moderate flooding is expected in tributaries to the Lower Missouri River in . This area typically experiences moderate flooding each spring, and despite the lack of snowpack, local antecedent conditions and typical spring rainfall will lead to the likelihood of moderate flooding on these tributaries.
Of note, isolated areas in the , , and , as well as could also experience moderate flooding this spring. Flooding in these areas are usually driven by spring convective rainfall events and flooding is typical in these basins given current conditions.
As of the date of this outlook, significant flooding is not expected on the mainstem of the Lower Mississippi River. Any flooding on the Lower Mississippi River is highly dependent on high flows from the Ohio River. Of note, this will be the fourth year of reduced Spring flood risk across the Mississippi River basin, with the risk for abnormally low flow on the below Cairo, Illinois later in the year.
NOAA's Long Range River Flood Outlook
This Spring Flood Outlook is focused on the potential for significant flooding (defined as moderate and major) with a 50% probability of exceedance, which is considered the most probable level of flooding expected within a season. A number of other locations in the U.S. have a 50% probability of minor flooding, and those are shown in the Long Range River Flood Outlook.
At the request of national partners, including the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) continues its improved decision support services with the Long Range River Flood Outlook web service available at: https://water.noaa.gov/ . Here, stakeholders can access a single, nationally consistent map depicting the 3-month risk of minor, moderate, and major river flooding as shown in the map to the right. This risk information is based on NOAA’s Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) forecasts which are generated for approximately 2,600 river and stream forecast locations across the nation. With this capability, stakeholders can quickly view flood risk predicted to affect their specific area of concern. The Long Range Outlook augments the National Hydrologic Assessment by clearly and objectively communicating flood risk at the local level.
Select a Water Resource Region below to explore the 2025 Long Range River Flood Outlook in more detail.
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Water Supply
Western U.S.
Water supply forecasts are produced by the River Forecast Centers in the western United States. Forecasts are impacted by current hydrologic conditions including snowpack, soil moisture, and streamflow. As conditions change, particularly over the next few months, forecasts will be updated and available at the Western Water Supply Forecasts webpage.
Northwest
Water supply forecasts in the Northwest are a mix of conditions. Near to above normal runoff volumes are forecast in and the majority of the while below normal runoff volumes are expected in , , and portions of the .
California and Nevada
Near to above normal runoff volumes are forecast for and near to below normal runoff volumes are expected in and.
Colorado River and Great Basin
Below to near normal runoff volumes are expected over the . Much below normal runoff volumes are forecast for including and .
Upper Rio Grande Basin
Below normal runoff volumes are expected for portions of into . River basins such as the , , and are forecast at seasonal volumes between 60 - 70% of normal.
Upper Missouri River Basin
Across the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains in the and along portions of the , below normal seasonal volumes generally between 50 - 75% are expected.
Eastern U.S.
Mid-Atlantic / Northeast
Due to a relative lack of winter precipitation, reservoirs across portions of the are below their typical storage capacity. However, the seasonal precipitation outlook favors above normal precipitation through June in this area, which could improve the current conditions.
Mississippi River Basin
As we enter the fourth year of reduced Spring flood risk across the Mississippi River basin, the risk for abnormally low flow on the below is again present. Climatologically, flows decrease in the late summer into early winter as rainfall patterns shift from widespread spring rainfall to summertime thunderstorms. Moreover, it should be noted the Mississippi River has experienced unusually below normal flows during portions of the last three years.
NOAA's Role in Flood Awareness and Public Safety
From 2010 to 2024, floods claimed an average of 105 lives annually in the United States ( https://www.weather.gov/arx/usflood) . Some of these cases could have been prevented by staying informed of flood threat and following the direction of local emergency management officials.
To help people and communities prepare, NOAA offers the following flood safety tips:
- Determine whether your community is in a flood-risk area and continue monitoring local flood conditions at http://water.weather.gov .
- Learn what actions to take to stay safe before, during and after a flood at https://www.weather.gov/safety/flood and https://www.ready.gov/floods .
- Visit http://www.floodsmart.gov to learn about FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program and for flood preparedness advice to safeguard your family, home and possessions.
- Purchase a NOAA Weather Radio All- Hazards receiver with battery power option to stay informed of quickly changing weather information.
- Study evacuation routes in advance and heed evacuation orders.
- Turn Around, Don’t Drown – never cross flooded roads, no matter how well you know the area or how shallow you believe the water to be.
NOAA’s National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. It operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy.
NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Visit us online or on Facebook and X (formerly Twitter) .
For More Information
The information presented above, as well as additional information regarding areas of low flow risk, water supply, Alaska flood potential, and hypoxia outlook are discussed in the 2025 National Hydrologic Assessment .
2025 National Hydrologic Assessment (National Weather Service - Office of Water Prediction)
Reflection of NOAA's 2024 Spring Flood Outlook
Explore the map to see how reported spring flooding impacts from March 16th, 2024 to June 30th, 2024 aligned with NOAA's 2024 Spring Flood Outlook.
From late April to early May 2024, a slow-moving but strong storm system brought heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms across the Central Plains causing minor to major flooding along the Marmaton and Neosho River basins in Kansas and Oklahoma. The Marmaton River at Fort Scott, Kansas, crested at 47 feet on April 28, surpassing the flood stage of 38 feet. The Neosho River basin experienced moderate flooding as it reached 27 feet near Parsons, Kansas on April 30 and 20 feet near Commerce, Oklahoma by May 2.
To see images of real flood impacts along the Marmaton and Neosho River, click below:
Click each camera icon to view photos. More images of the aftermath of the severe weather event in Fort Scott, Kansas (April 26-28) can be found in this local news article , while a video of the Neosho River flooding is available here .
The figure below compares the population at risk from flooding based on the 2024 Spring Flood Outlook forecast conditions and the reported impacts of spring flooding.
Population at Risk for Flooding in Spring 2024
