Resilience Science Information Network

Communities around the world are facing climate-change related impacts, such as increased frequency and intensity of storm events and drought periods, rising temperatures, and sea level rise  [1] . The Upper Texas Gulf Coast, located on the Gulf of Mexico, is particularly susceptible to coastal impacts from climate change such as sea level rise and high tide flooding  [2] . These climate-driven hazards compound interrelated risks to Critical Infrastructure, Social Vulnerability, and Natural Habitat.

How do we plan future infrastructure and investments in our communities, economy, and environment when our climate is changing?

Planning for climate change impacts requires a holistic understanding of assets, potential future risks, and unmet challenges that can serve as future opportunities for resilience and adaptation. Focused on a nine-county region of the Upper Texas Gulf Coast, the Resilience Science Information Network (RESIN): Mapping Narrative brings data, information, and guidance to the forefront of decision making. RESIN provides a foundation for Community-Based Climate Resilience planning.

Examples of questions to consider while utilizing RESIN are:

• What climate indicators are important for decision-makers in my region?
• What are the opportunities in my community to improve resilience to climate change?
• How do I identify climate risks of greatest concern in my community?

A series of interactive mapping tools are provided through the  RESIN Resource Portal  under Interactive Mapping Tools. Each is equipped with select data layers and enhanced capabilities to provide a customizable experience. To download data for use in desktop geographic information systems software, use the Data Downloads.

As climate patterns become more variable and reach new extremes, communities worldwide are challenged to consider unique and unprecedented risks that may threaten investments in infrastructure, public health, and quality of life. Community-Based Climate Resilience is the ability of a local community to prepare for, withstand, and bounce back from shocks and stressors that are anticipated to result from a changing climate. Because communities bring firsthand knowledge of their environment, they can play a key role in determining which climate hazards present the greatest potential risk to their community assets. They can also inform the prioritization of actions and resources that could provide the greatest opportunities to build resilience for members of the community who need it most.

By exploring local climate change-related hazards and evaluating vulnerability of essential community assets and infrastructure, communities can begin to identify solutions that reduce risks and plan for a changing climate. 

How can we ensure that communities receive equitable investment in infrastructure to reduce their risk to multiple climate hazards?

Climate resilience is the ability to prepare for, respond to, and subsequently bounce back from impacts as a result of climate change. By preparing for future hazards and risks that are connected to our changing climate, communities can better withstand different magnitudes of events and lessen detrimental effects. Participation in resilient thinking from all levels of a community or region can strengthen adaptation actions promoting resilience. Adaptations are actions by a community to mitigate a current or future impact of climate change. For further information see the  City of Houston’s Climate Action Plan .

The following section reveals a series of curated climate indicators that describe future conditions of Temperature, Heat, Precipitation, and Energy in the RESIN nine county area. The climate indicators were produced by Drs. Katharine Hayhoe and Anne Stoner of ATMOS Research & Consulting using future climate projections and historical observations. The projections are based on global climate models. Precipitation was statistically downscaled using the Asynchronous Regional Regression Model  [3]  while temperature was downscaled using the Statistical Trend Analysis of Residuals – Empirical Statistical Downscaling Model. For additional information refer to the  Climate Impact Assessment for the City of Houston  report.

Climate indicators are representative of long-term trends and variability in environmental parameters such as temperature, heat, and precipitation related to plausible climate change scenarios. To aid scenario planning and capture a range of possible climate futures two  Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)  known as RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are described by the indicators. RCP4.5 is a moderate climate scenario, which includes assumptions such as increased use of efficient and renewable energy, preservation and conservation of natural lands, and the adoption of climate friendly policy, which would lead to a leveling of greenhouse gas concentrations by midcentury  [4 ]. The RCP8.5 scenario considers a future condition characterized by higher energy demand and a lack of climate change polices leading to a continual increase of greenhouse gas emissions through the end of century, resulting in a greater degree of climate change  [5] .

In each map of this section, slide the bar from left to right to compare RCP4.5 (Moderate) and RCP8.5 (High) scenarios for the climate indicators. Each map represents projected future conditions to the 2090s summarized by county. All climate indicators are represented as the amount of change compared to a historical average calculated from 1950 to 2015. For climate indicators that have total annual and seasonal projections, the total annual value is represented by the map while seasonal graphs are accessible by clicking on a county.

As you scroll through RESIN, use the map zoom control to focus on your community or area of interest. Use the legend icon to display the map key. Click on a map feature (i.e a county) to reveal extra information about the data.

As defined by the Federal Emergency Management, critical infrastructure includes those assets, systems, networks, and functions so vital that their breakdown would have a devastating impact on security, national economic security, public health and/or safety. Understanding vulnerabilities within our critical infrastructure and facilities is key to planning for future events. We must think about the impact on our community should a system crucial to our daily lives be interrupted or become unavailable. Protecting critical infrastructure and facilities from the impacts brought on by a changing climate through adaptation and mitigation efforts is vital to developing resilient communities.

Adaptation measures for critical infrastructure and facilities are developed through risk evaluation and a step-by-step process to ensure that many environmental variables are considered. Infrastructure and facilities must rely on structural and management mitigation measures climate change impacts. Structural changes can include changing the composition of road structures to decrease the possibility of heat deformations or establishing more greenspace to act as a natural deterrent to flooding. Management efforts include investment in warning systems, changes in maintenance times and examining insurance options. Retrofitting buildings to be more energy efficient and sustainable, investing in on-site generation, such as solar+storage microgrids, updating building codes, and training operation managers to run more resilient, sustainable facilities can also contribute toward adapting to a changing climate.

We must evaluate the impact on a community should a system be interrupted and then protect the infrastructure most critical to adaptation. 

Our connection to the power grid is a large factor in the health and wellbeing of people and their communities. Facilities that generate power are exceedingly vulnerable to disastrous events. The leading cause of power outages are natural hazards and disasters that leave costly repairs and millions in need behind their wake—half of all outages and 87% of outages that affected over 50,000 customers from 2002-2012 were caused by severe weather  [8] . Low frequency, high impact events often cause the most detrimental damage to power infrastructure  [9] . Equipment and systems are not built to withstand events that are now occurring at a greater frequency and impact due to our changing climate.

The Heating Degree Days (HDD) climate indicator measures the cumulative number of degrees each day’s average temperature is below 65°F while the Cooling Degree Days (CDD) indicator measures the cumulative number of degrees each day’s average temperature is above 65º F. HDD and CDD are designed to quantify the demand for energy needed to heat or cool a building. A high number of degree days generally results in increased energy usage for heating or cooling building space. 

HDD decreases over time across all 9 counties under both climate change scenarios. This decrease means that there will be gradually less demand for heating energy in the future under climate change. Heating energy demand decreases further under the higher emission scenario high (8.5) scenario, which projects a greater temperature increase over the 9 counties. Changes of seasonal HDD suggest that winter is getting warmer in the future, thus less overall demand for heating energy is anticipated during winter.

The story is the opposite for CDD. CDD increase over time across all counties under both climate change scenarios, which suggests an increasing demand for energy for space cooling. CDD increases by 35–39%, 77–86% by 2100 compared to 1950 under the moderate (4.5) and high (8.5) scenarios, respectively. Seasonal CDD changes indicate that there is increasing need for cooling energy for spring, summer, and fall (seasonal CDD is shown for Harris County), with the high (8.5) scenario projecting greater increases in cooling energy demand during these seasons.

Roads, railroad tracks, and waterways move people and products throughout a region. Potential impacts that cause transportation infrastructure to be inoperable or fail pose risks for communities that rely on them. Transportation disturbances inhibit supply chains for industries that depend on infrastructure for distribution of goods, such as grocery stores and gas stations.

High precipitation events can inhibit road use, particularly at low-water crossings where there is a known risk for water to cover the surface of a roadway and potentially wash away parts of the roadway. High precipitation poses a hazard to trains as well with tracks potentially being flooded or debris left behind by severe storms. Additionally, heat can affect transportation infrastructure, causing deformation in materials. Extreme heat or extended heat waves may result in train derailment if proper maintenance and speed reductions are not implemented. Temperature fluctuations are of particular concern for bridges because they increase stress on bridge joints. The map shows the national bridge inventory for the 9-county RESIN region, indicating bridge condition.

It is important to plan for possible risks to transportation infrastructure from climate change, including prioritizing maintenance and protection of evacuation routes. Additionally, communities could expand access to transportation for all users, especially for those who lack traditional modes of public transportation such as commuter rail and buses, while also reducing per capita emissions associated with the high (8.5) scenario.

Risks to transportation infrastructure are dangerous for people and inhibit supply chains for all industries that depend on them.

Many water facilities and most wastewater facilities are on low-lying land near waterways  [10] . Drinking water facilities that rely on surface water are located near lakes and rivers to easily access water before treating and distributing to customers. Wastewater facilities are often located downhill from their customers to take advantage of gravity; waste from homes naturally flows to the facilities. The proximity to waterways and low-lying areas makes water and wastewater infrastructure more susceptible to damaging effects of events or changes in climate that result in flooding, such as hurricanes and rising sea level. When these facilities are flooded, treatment can be hindered and result in the accumulation and release of untreated wastewater to the environment, which can end up in homes, increasing vulnerability in communities during and after a flood event.

Additionally, high temperatures for longer periods, for example increased days per year above 100º F can affect surface water quality, supply and use, impacting treatment at water facilities. Heat reduces the amount of dissolved oxygen in water, which can negatively affect aquatic life and degrade the quality of surface waters used for drinking. Longer summers also lead to higher demand for lawn watering, increasing strain on water treatment facilities. Lower surface water levels due to longer heatwave and low seasonal or annual total precipitation mean more of the water in rivers is made up of treated effluent from upstream wastewater plants  [11,12] . Increased reuse of surface water, for example to increase drought resilience, can reduce wastewater discharged to the environment, impacting water-reliant habitats  [13]  and water supplies for downstream users. Smaller water systems (those serving 500 or fewer people) in Texas may experience a higher percentage of treated wastewater effluent in the surface water they use but might not have the advanced technologies needed to remove contaminants discharged by an upstream wastewater facility  [14] .

Proximity to waterways and low-lying areas makes water and wastewater infrastructure more susceptible to damaging effects of flooding.

See the  Critical Infrastructure and Climate Mapping Tool  for associated layers along with future climate indicators:

• National bridge inventory
• Industrial & Municipal Wastewater Outfalls (TCEQ)
• Drinking Water Facilities (EPA ECHO)

It is important for communities to recognize which residents could be most vulnerable to various weather or environmental related hazards. To promote safety and security for all, plans and solutions created to reduce these risks should be inclusive and account for the needs of every community. Planning groups should include vulnerable communities because representation in planning affects a community’s ability to recover, apply for relief funds, and move towards resilience post-event.

Communities should protect their vulnerable populations, ensuring that climate mitigation and adaptation measures are specific to the needs of those residents. Specific adaptation actions such as ensuring evacuation routes are accessible during times of natural disasters, informing potential homebuyers about purchasing repetitive loss properties, and creating inclusive equitable plans and policies that directly acknowledge and identify gaps in social systems are critical in addressing social vulnerability. Communication efforts must consider that vulnerable communities could have special needs that require extra or early communication, or they might speak a language other than English. Identifying vulnerabilities can better inform adaptation and mitigation efforts.

Vulnerable communities often have higher exposure to climate risks yet fewer resources available to address them. 

Assessing flood risks strictly through spatial analysis does not represent who is most vulnerable to flooding  [15] . Socially advantaged groups are more likely to reside in flood-prone coastal areas because of ocean views, beach access, and other amenities  [16,17] . However, flood impacts often disproportionately devastate marginalized communities  [18] .

Non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic residents are more likely to reside in inland flood-prone areas with fewer amenities [19]. An aerial analysis of flood impacts after Hurricane Harvey showed racially and economically marginalized neighborhoods, specifically neighborhoods with higher proportions of non-Hispanic Blacks, Hispanics, and persons of low socioeconomic status, experienced more extensive flooding in their homes  [20,21].  Additionally, residents of unincorporated areas located in floodplains may have an absence of drainage and flood-control infrastructure that could contribute to disparate flood impacts  [22] .

Flood events often disproportionately impact marginalized communities.

Household water insecurity is also an issue for marginalized communities  [23]  and may be exacerbated by disparate flood conditions. Evacuees of hurricane Katrina experienced physical and emotional stress during and after the storm, some as a result of lack of food and water resources  [24] . Marginalized communities sometimes form unconventional systems to access water when conventional service is insufficient or unavailable, including using water vending machines or sharing services with neighbors  [25] . Flood impacts could break those networks, further disenfranchising residents. Moreover, residents in unconventional housing, such as mobile homes, have routinely poorer water service,  [26,27]  the quality of which could be worsened by flood conditions.

In addition, flooding is associated with physical and mental health impacts  [28,29]  Marginalized communities experiencing higher than average flooding may also experience increased physical and mental health burdens.

Many parts of the Houston area have experienced repetitive floods. Texas residents possess the second highest number of severe repetitive loss properties and highest number of unmitigated properties in the country, most of which are in the Houston area [30] . Impacts of repetitive flood put stress on communities, especially vulnerable communities that already suffer disparate, worse impacts in storm events. The following figure compares areas of repetitive flood loss with the areas of social vulnerability, as indicated by the  Center for Disease Control’s Social Vulnerability Index  (SVI).

Comparing the SRL and SVI data shows that claim payments are correlated with vulnerability: FEMA pays the most per property and per loss at a property for low vulnerability areas (SVI lower than 0.25) and the least in high vulnerability areas (SVI greater than 0.75). Conversely, FEMA pays more than the value of the property more often in high vulnerability areas. However, areas with moderate vulnerability (SVI between 0.25 and 0.75) are the most impacted by repetitive loss. The map shows areas with the most repetitive losses by SVI level.

In the entire FEMA-administered NFIP, only 2% of properties with flood insurance experience repetitive flood loss, but they account for 30% of total flood claims paid  [32].  The average percent of insured properties per zip code is lower in areas with moderate to high vulnerability, which are the properties most impacted by repetitive loss. Insurance prices are affected by repetitive losses on the property as well as the flood hazard rating.

SRL data is one of the more robust datasets that exist on repetitive flood loss that can daylight existing inequality in flood loss, flood hazard and responses. However, using the NFIP data for social vulnerability analysis does have drawbacks; the NFIP program has challenges on several levels with addressing social vulnerability and inequity. Many of the buyouts and/or mitigation responses are inequitable as individuals with more financial resources are better positioned politically and administratively to develop successful proposals for federal buyout assistance  [33] .

Homeowners can lower insurance prices as well as their future flood risk by mitigating the risk on their property. The average percent of properties per zip code that have been mitigated is lowest among high SVI zip codes. While there are grants and loans available to assist with flood mitigation implementation, it is possible that they are not as effectively reaching the communities with the highest social vulnerability in the Houston-Galveston Region.

Only 2% of properties with flood insurance experience repetitive flood loss, but they account for 30% of total flood claims paid.

Environmental Hazards can be large or small, affecting entire regions or individual neighborhoods. Regardless of the scale, hazards must be assessed for their impact on communities’ resilience. Hazardous waste sites can include areas such as petroleum storage sites, landfills, or dry cleaners. Hazardous waste sites that might be contaminated and need cleanup before they can be reused are called brownfields; abandoned hazardous waste sites that pose a threat to the community are superfund sites. Records of these locations are kept by the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality to aid in clean up and disposal activities. Each waste location has the potential to leak chemicals into surface water, groundwater, or the surrounding soil, particularly during a flood event. Contamination, including that caused by flooding, can impact all water users but often disproportionately affects marginalized communities  [34] . The figure compares the areas’ social vulnerability and number of waste sites that could be concern for contamination during a flood event.

In the Houston-Galveston Region, communities with higher a SVI are 2.1 times more likely to include a waste site than those inhabited by low SVI populations  [35].  On average, areas with high SVI populations are 4.4 times more likely to include a superfund, 7.2 times more likely to include a brownfield, 1.5 times more likely to include a landfill, 3.0 times more likely to include a hazardous waste clean-up site, and 1.9 times more likely to include a petroleum storage facility. Low SVI areas, on the other hand, are more likely to have dry cleaners in their area.

Contamination, including that caused by flooding, can impact all water users but often disproportionately affects marginalized communities.

Extreme heat is the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the United States, made worse by  urban heat islands . Elevated temperatures can lead to increased respiratory difficulties, heat exhaustion, and heat stroke. Children, the elderly, and those with preexisting conditions are most vulnerable to heat related illness.

Knowing where areas of high urban heat are located can help a community determine where to prioritize cooling strategies such as tree planting, cool and green roofs, cool paving, shade structures, cooling centers, and weatherization measures. The map shows where certain areas of cities are hotter than the average temperature for that same city as a whole. Severity is measured on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being a relatively mild heat area (slightly above the average for the city), and 5 being a severe heat area (significantly above the mean for the city).

Children, the elderly, and those with preexisting conditions are most vulnerable to heat related illness.  

Natural habitats such as forests, wetlands, and prairies provide ecosystem services, which are multifunctional benefits that people derive from natural systems. This can include reduced flood risk, regulation of climate through greenhouse gas reduction, and maintaining water quality to provide for safe water-based recreational activities and commerce. It is important to evaluate a community or region’s natural habitats to determine how they contribute to resilience, understand what changes to ecosystem services may occur when these environments are altered, and determine nature-based strategies for climate change adaptation. 

Natural habitats capture atmospheric carbon dioxide and enable optimal soil conditions, accounting for a significant portion of the world’s carbon storage potential. In addition, natural habitats lower flood risk by absorbing, retaining, and dissipating rainfall, or in the case of coastal wetlands, serve as a barrier to storm surge. These habitats also maintain water quality by filtering contaminants through their soils and vegetation, allowing clean water to flow into rivers lakes, and coastal estuaries. Other valuable ecosystem services include the unique cooling effect of urban tree canopies and vegetation, as well as the nursery/nesting and foraging areas for wildlife provided by wetlands, which supports commercially and recreationally important species of fin fish, shellfish, and waterbirds.

The Coastal Marsh Migration data illustrates how potential scenarios of sea level rise could cause coastal wetlands to shift and be replaced by open water. This data set, produced by NOAA, uses the best available elevation and land cover data, along with literature-supported sea level rise scenarios, to estimate potential future migration of coastal wetlands. On the Upper Texas Gulf Coast, under the Intermediate scenario (predicts less sea level rise over a specified period of time), coastal wetlands are expected to migrate inland as sea level rises. The slider illustrates how wetlands are predicted to shift by end of century. 

Explore the entire data set through NOAA’s  Sea Level Rise Viewer . 

Natural habitats can support climate adaptation through Green Infrastructure, also known as nature-based infrastructure, which emphasizes increased connectivity of natural systems at the landscape scale to optimize ecosystem services. Green Infrastructure helps to mitigate environmental hazards and build resilience to changing climatic conditions because it acts as natural barrier to climate-change impacts such as enhanced flooding and coastal sea level rise. Green Infrastructure adaptation actions include ecosystem-based approaches such as restoration, preservation, or enhancement of natural habitats, the integration of green space into urban environments, providing space for wetlands to migrate inland, and ensuring that native species thrive. These adaptation actions increase the capacity of Green Infrastructure and enhance our ability to prepare for a changing climate.

Green Infrastructure is a network of nature, semi-natural areas, and green space that delivers ecosystem services.

See the  Natural Habitats and Climate Mapping Tool  for associated layers:

• Land Cover including Developed, Agriculture, and Natural