Looking Ahead 2050

To plan for future needs, transportation planners must first have a basic understanding of the current system. One of the key steps in the transportation planning process is to gather information to develop a comprehensive look at the region. This is known as the Existing Conditions process.

The data/information contained in this section is taken from the most recent data sets available to APO staff at the drafting of the MTP. While APO staff understand various data sources update -- some more frequently than others -- the purpose of this section is to provide a snapshot in time (this being our base year 2020) with the most accurate and up-to-date data available.

This section starts with a comprehensive look at who lives within the MPA. Through the exploration of various demographic characteristics, we start to lay the groundwork for the unique ways people may choose to get around in their communities.

This section explores where people within the MPA travel. It looks at specific destinations people are typically traveling to within the MPA—work, dining, and shopping. Additionally, this section explores the locations where people are starting their trips (i.e., where people are living).

Understanding when people are traveling is a key component to understanding transportation/travel behaviors.

This section addresses the what (our transportation system) and the how (modal choices) aspects. This portion dives into the existing transportation infrastructure. This includes a comprehensive look at the surface transportation options in the region.

Transportation has a direct impact on the environment. From the significant role the transportation sector plays in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions – which have been known to cause detrimental effects on air quality and human health – to the indirect connections it has on the deterioration of water quality and wildlife habitats, the relationship between transportation and the environment is one transportation planners must be mindful of when considering future infrastructure needs.

Now that we have a pretty good handle on where we are (based on the groundwork discussed in both the existing conditions and environmental conditions), our next step is to figure out where we want to go.

After we’ve evaluated our current situation (both what is and is not working well) we need to identify a path forward and a means to get there. This chapter is designed to do just that.

As we Look Ahead to 2050, we need to come to an agreed upon destination. Assisting transportation planners, engineers, and local policymakers in this process is the creation of a transportation vision – answering the question of what we would like to achieve during this planning horizon. These higher-level visionary statements are meant to serve as aspirational goals for the region’s transportation network.

Using objectives and strategies, we as a region can then start taking purposeful action steps to execute our goals. Keeping us in check along the way is a series of performance measures which allow us to assess our progress and/or redirect our efforts as needed.

Federal regulations require the APO’s MTP to include a “projected transportation demand of persons and goods in the metropolitan planning area over the period of the transportation plan.” One of the primary techniques the APO utilizes to fulfill this requirement is through the Travel Demand Model (TDM).

As stated in the Existing Conditions, the TDM is a tool used to understand trip generation and attraction information to distribute travel on a roadway network (trip assignment). Using a computer-based modeling software – the APO model is built and maintained in CUBE – we are not only able to understand our current system, but we are also able to reasonably forecast travel patterns based on future population growth and land use.

The 2020 base year model scenario has indicated the region’s overall transportation network is operating rather well. Aside from a few known problem areas – mainly the MN 15 north/south corridor and the MN 23 east/west corridor through the core – much of the system is currently under capacity.

However, while things may be functioning at a fairly high-level today, that may not be the case over the next few decades. If the current roadway network (with the addition of committed capacity expansion projects through 2026) is left unchanged and the region continues to grow, operational challenges will become more apparent. As the 2050 No-Build model results indicate, corridors currently approaching and/or over capacity will continue to face added capacity pressures further deteriorating their operational functions. Increases in VMT, VHT, and travel delay are also anticipated.

Up until this point, we really haven’t Looked Ahead to 2050. We have spent a great deal of time either looking at the past (or present) situation – our existing conditions, our existing natural and physical environment – or forecasting what our future will look like if our region keeps growing. We have an idea of where we are.

Now, it’s time to program our GPS to our destination (our visionary statements) and set out on our journey toward 2050.

After all data analysis, public engagement, future forecasting, and budget projections, this section outlines a roadmap of how we can accomplish our transportation vision – through the implementation of surface transportation infrastructure projects.

As stated in the Financial section, federal guidance on infrastructure projects contained within a Metropolitan Transportation Plan states projects must be fiscally constrained. This is not a wish (or illustrative) list. The projects listed in this section have been vetted through a series of exercises – discussed below – and can reasonably be assumed to be completed by 2050.

Technological changes to the transportation industry are on the horizon. With the growing public adoption of alternative fuel vehicles (such as electric vehicles (EVs)), the continued advancement in vehicle automation, and the promise of connected vehicle technology, all levels of the transportation sector will need to adapt to these and other future changes.

To ensure our region has a competitive edge when it comes to these new advances, we need to gain an understanding of what is currently out there. In addition, local transportation planners and engineers will need to evaluate our existing infrastructure to guarantee that when these changes reach Central Minnesota our system is equipped to handle them.

Fully implementing the vision set forth in this plan will take time and effort.

We have already discussed the fiscally constrained list of capacity expansion and reconstruction projects for each city and county in the MPA along with projects identified by MnDOT. Every new roadway project follows roughly the same development process:

1. Visioning and Planning: What problem are we trying to fix? What are our options for fixing it?
2. Environmental Review: What are the potential environmental impacts of each option?
3. Final Design: Which option is the best option to fix the problem?
4. Right-of-Way Acquisition: Purchasing land needed to construct our final vision for the roadway corridor. 5. Construction: Building the solution.

For reconstruction projects, this development process is somewhat shortened. Afterall, the roadway already exists, and the intent is simply to rebuild it. Still, some minor improvements can be made in a reconstruction project such as adding curb ramps at corners, adding turning lanes at specific intersections, installing traffic signals or roundabouts, etc.

As a transportation planning entity, the APO is normally involved in the first step of the project development process.

If you have additional questions or comments on the APO’s draft plan, please contact Vicki Johnson ( ikeogu@stcloudapo.org ) or Alex McKenzie ( mckenzie@stcloudapo.org ). You can also call 320-252-7568.

Thank you so much for your time!