Compound Risk Analysis: Climate & Conflict in Sudan

Conflict, fragility, and violence are major drivers of humanitarian crises, causing up to 80% of all humanitarian needs and exacerbating vulnerabilities of people living in the areas (1,2). To reach those most affected, innovative humanitarian approaches like anticipatory action needs to be expanded to new settings. Meanwhile, data scarcity is especially present in conflict-affected areas, hindering the planning and implementation of early actions. In Sudan this accounts for many areas in need of humanitarian assistance where extensive data gaps hamper assistance to arrive. Sudan appears widely unmapped in OpenStreetMap (3) and geospatial data is overall scarce. OSM mapping can be levaraged as powerful tool to close crucial risk data gaps and support the expansion of anticipatory action to new settings. Yet, OSM mapping is resource and time intensive, therefore it essential to identify high risk areas and prioritize areas for OSM mapping.

Geospatial Analysis & Hot spot Mapping

In this study of Sudan areas are defined as high-risk areas where high impact of conflict, high exposure to flood and drought and high vulnerabilities geographically overlay.

• Vulnerability : i) Recent Food Insecurity ii) Prevalence Stunting iii) IDP & Refugee Locations
• Conflict: Conflict Density 2000 - 2021
• Natural Hazards: i) Flood Exposure; ii) Drought Exposure

The analysis of hot spots includes a GIS spatial analysis of pre-existing vulnerability indicators, historical natural hazards exposure and historical conflict density.

A weighted overlay is conducted, which allows to extract insights from overlayed quantitative, georeferenced indexes, with weights assigned according to expert opinion, creating multi-hazard hot spot maps.

Following maps give an overview of different layers that were included in the analysis of Sudan hot spots:

[Scroll down to go through different layers and use the +/- buttons on the right to zoom and interact with the maps]

Hot Spot Maps Sudan

Following slideshow demonstrates hot spots and findings of the conducted compound risk analysis in Sudan.

[Use the large arrow button on the right to go through the slide show and use the +/- buttons on the right to zoom and interact with the maps]

Hot spot Areas & Country Context

Following slideshow zooms in on four identified hot spot areas and provides first insights into location specific settings:

[Use the large arrow button on the right to go through the slide show and use the +/- buttons on the right to zoom and interact with the maps]

Historic Flood Impacts on IDPs and refugees in the Nyala area

Following maps show case examples of historic flood event impacts on IDPs and refugees in the Nyala area in South Dafur. Historic impact analysis was conducted by Mark Weegmann (2021).

IDP & Refugee Settlements within Flood Areas

The following map highlights locations of IDPs and refugees within flood areas in Sudan:

How to get involved...

Start Mapping today!

The first two mapping tasks of the Kassala area are open for remote mapping at the HOT tasking manager. Take action now and support the planning of early actions in Sudan by mapping yet unmapped areas!

Priority areas for OSM mapping are currently active tasks on the MapSwipe App for selecting suitable imagery for mapping. Download the app, select 'Forecast-based financing Sudan' and start swiping imagery today!

The research idea for this study was proposed by the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre as a contribution to ensure uncharted territories and the people who live there as well as first responders, humanitarian and development actors have access to complete, accurate and reliable geospatial data, to be used not only for emergency response but for anticipatory action and long term DRR and CCA planning. This work is supported by the Danish Red Cross with funds from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Denmark.

Data Sources & References

Flood Exposure: UNEP (2011); Drought Exposure: UNEP (2014); Food Insecurity: FEWS (2020); Prevalence of Malnutrition: ICA (2013); Conflict data: ACLED (2021); Flood Data: FATHOM (2021); IDP Locations: OCHA (2019); Refugee Camps: UNHCR (2021); Imagery: GoogleEarth (2021)

1. OCHA. CERF 2018 Annual Report - United Nations - Central Emergency Response Fund. 2018;

2. Fragility, Conflict and Violence Overview: https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/fragilityconflictviolence/overview

3.  OpenStreetMap: www.openstreetmap.org

Historic Flood Events: Reliefweb.int; dabangasudan.org; sudantribune.com