SEDA-COG MPO: 2023 Trail Demand Report

Within its eight-county extent located in central Pennsylvania, the SEDA-COG Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) region contains 100+ miles of walking, hiking, and biking trails. In an effort to understand and plan for the role bicyclists and pedestrians play in its transportation network, the MPO launched the SEDA-COG MPO Bicycle & Pedestrian Counts Program in 2022.

The program will allow planners to measure existing levels of bicycling and walking, monitor travel trends, plan for new or improved facilities, and measure outcomes of bicycle and pedestrian projects relative to transportation, economic impacts, and return on investment.

Through the use of advanced trail counter technology, trail demand data collected on regional trails can be analyzed to determine peak usage times, trail use pattern changes over time, and inform decision-making by SEDA-COG MPO, trail managers, state agencies, conservation groups, and other organizations related to transportation and recreation investments.

SEDA-COG MPO partnered with  Dr. Michelle Beiler , Associate Professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering at Bucknell University, to perform trail counter installation and preliminary data analysis for the SEDA-COG MPO Bicycle & Pedestrian Counts Program. Dr. Beiler has extensive experience conducting trail demand counts and studying the complex relationship between recreational infrastructure and bicycle/pedestrian mobility within the United States.

This data collection process builds on Dr. Beiler's previous work including past trail studies, such as...

•  The Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on Trail Usage: Application of a Ten-Year Trail Counting Methodology 

•  Evaluating the Impact of Rail-Trails: A Methodology for Assessing Travel Demand and Economic Impacts 

Dr. Beiler will use the data collected from this program for additional research projects.

In 2022, the SEDA-COG MPO purchased six  TRAFx Infrared Trail Counters (Gen 4.1)  to begin the traffic estimation process of the regional trail network and to further meet the needs of the SEDA-COG MPO Bicycle & Pedestrian Counts Program.

TRAFx Infrared Trail Counters are specifically designed to count people traveling on trails, paths, and sidewalks through the use of a high-quality infrared scope and advanced microelectronics. These trail counters emit an infrared beam from their scope as shown in Figure 3. When someone moves in front of the beam and "breaks" it, the counter detects the individual's movement and records a count. These devices don't take photos or gather any information other than approximate counts.

According to TRAFx Research Ltd., their trail counters work in temperatures ranging from 131°F to -40°F and have been utilized in both rural and urban environments from Australia to Alaska. The counters also boast large storage capacity (1,000,000+ counts) and long battery life, allowing the collection of trail data for lengthy periods of time [7].

The count data in this report represent the number of uses or trips, not individual users or visitors. All infrared trail counters undercount when people travel side-by-side or in tight groups on a trail. Therefore, the counters yield estimates rather than absolutes. Count accuracy is dependent upon various factors: how people typically use the trail (single file or side-by-side), how far apart people are spaced, how busy the trail is, trail width, how a counter is set up, etc. If the trail is narrow and people travel single file and spaced apart, then high accuracy (95 to 100%) can be expected; if the trail is wide and people typically travel side-by-side or in tight groups, then accuracy of 75% to 90% can be expected [8].

Weather, equipment failure, insects, human interference, and other factors can also influence count accuracy [8].

With the help of Dr. Michelle Beiler, the SEDA-COG MPO selected three local trail networks within the region to conduct the preliminary counting cycle of its count program during 2022-2023. These trail networks were selected based on their proximity to SEDA-COG and Bucknell University staff in order to check on the equipment and conduct manual validation counts.

The selected local trail networks include:

Prior to installation, the six TRAFx Infrared Trail Counters were placed into locked, electrical disconnect boxes. Each counter was mounted inside its own box with the infrared scope aimed through a prefabricated "window" on the side of the structure. Additional "windows" on the bottom of the box were removed for proper ventilation. All openings were then covered with metal, 1/4" hardware cloth to reduce the risk of damage to the scope by curious trail users and/or wildlife. This set-up is displayed in Figure 4.

Using TRAFx Communicator and TRAFx DataNet software, Dr. Beiler aided SEDA-COG MPO in setting up the counter units for in-field data collection. Each counter unit was provided with a unique ID and automated collection schedule.

Two TRAFx Infrared Trail Counters were installed at each of the three selected local trail networks in July 2022. The counter boxes were screwed into wooden posts or trees depending on the trail context and preference of the trail manager.

Trail counters were installed based on the following guidelines:

• Install within 10 feet of where users pass on the trail
• Don't install in a location where users may stop, gather, or socialize
• Aim the scope waist high (approximately 3 feet)
• Don't aim the scope at wind-prone objects or vehicles
• Tilt the counter slightly down to drain rain water

Since infrared trail demand counters are rarely 100% accurate, it is recommended to validate the data collected by the TRAFx Infrared Trail Counters with in-field manual observations. By comparing the number of people the counter records with those observed visually during a manual count, an adjustment factor value can be calculated to produce a more accurate trail usage count.

Two manual counts were conducted at each counter by a SEDA-COG employee that recorded every individual that passed by the counter in an hour time frame.

Dr. Beiler retrieved the trail counters in July 2023 after they were in the field for approximately one year. The counters were removed from their electrical disconnect boxes to download their data for traffic-based analyses and prepare them for installation for the 2023-2024 program cycle.

Any posts that were installed, along with the boxes, remained on the trail sites for potential future use in the SEDA-COG MPO Bicycle & Pedestrian Counts Program.

The data shared in this section of the report comes directly from the TRAFx Infrared Trail Counters placed on the three sampled trail networks from 07/31/2022 to 07/22/2023. No adjustment factors were used based on limited manual counts and inconsistent variations between manual counts and the 'raw' counter data. Again, the data presented are estimates, rather than absolutes.

 _{* The Watsontown Towpath Southern Counter did not collect data from 06/30/2023 until retrieval in July 2023 due to unknown circumstances. The counter was not damaged.} 

Directions: Use the side arrows of the six slideshows to view the trail demand data collected during the 2022-2023 program cycle between July 31, 2022 and July 22, 2023. Please note that July trail demand data are based on the average of July 2022 and July 2023.

Out of the three sampled trail networks, Dale's Ridge Trail recorded the highest average daily traffic (ADT) count at 37.6 uses per day. Figure 11, below, graphically represents ADT by sampled trail network.

Note: The 'Mean' category in Figures 13-15 refers to the average of the three sampled trail networks (all six trail counters).

Trail users are most likely to travel...

... during the Spring and Fall seasons. Based on the collected data, users travel on the sampled trail networks the most during March-May (Spring) and September-November (Fall). Future studies may conduct research to further understand if seasonal temperature variations, along with other climate factors (i.e. wildfire smoke, flooding), impact trail demand within the region.

... on the weekends. Sunday is the day of the week with the most trail demand (21.8% of total traffic on all three sample trail networks), followed by Saturday (18.9%). In general, the three studied trail networks received less traffic on weekdays (Monday-Friday) than on weekends (Saturday-Sunday). On average, traffic occurred the least on Fridays (10.9%).

... in the late mornings and afternoons. Peak traffic occurs within the studied trail network at 11 AM and then between 2:00 PM - 5:00 PM. Generally, users hit the trails starting at 6:00 AM. It is uncommon for there to be traffic recorded through the evening to early morning between 8:00 PM and 6:00 AM.

SEDA-COG MPO plans to conduct trail counts with existing equipment throughout the entirety of the eight-county MPO region. Additional trail counter equipment may be purchased to expand the reach of the SEDA-COG MPO Bicycle & Pedestrian Counts Program. View Figure 15 below for the program schedule moving forward (subject to change).

Continued analyses of trail demand will provide the SEDA-COG MPO with a more comprehensive understanding of traffic trends and will result in more successful active transportation planning efforts throughout the region.

Processed trail count data, charts, and reports will be provided to local governments, trail managers, and the public upon the completion of future program cycles.

SEDA-COG MPO is collaborating with  Clinton County  and the  City of Lock Haven  to continue the SEDA-COG MPO Bicycle & Pedestrian Counts Program trail use counts along the Bald Eagle Valley Trail and the Lock Haven Levee Trail for the 2023-2024 program cycle.

The six trail counters were installed at the following sites in Fall of 2023:

Limited manual counts were gathered during the 2022-2023 program cycle, therefore, all data reported previously is based on counter data only. Moving forward, additional manual counts will be conducted by SEDA-COG employees and interns at each installed counter, in order to determine the possible need for adjustment factors.