Mosul Dam: Effectiveness and Threats

Comparing the Primary Functions of the Mosul Dam to the Danger of Collapse

Zach Kingsbury & Emily Morgan

March 4, 2021

Our project looks into the various effects--economic, political, agricultural or public health-related, for example--dams have on their surrounding regions. For our research, we have considered in particular the case of the Mosul Dam in northern Iraq, which provides flood control, irrigation, water supply, and hydroelectric power.

This project takes into consideration flood control and electricity generation, two of the three functions of the dam, as well as the threat posed by foundational instability and seemingly eternal upkeep. We ask: do the risks of the Mosul Dam outweigh its benefits? We have chosen, for the purposes of our research, to consider only two of the dam’s functions in light of the current state of research and available resources. While the reservoir provides necessary irrigation water to surrounding areas, the data available from public sources on agriculture and its development both before and after 1986 is scarce. More readily accessible raster data on urban building and population change, as well as information on hydroelectric power in the region, led us to consider these functions in particular. We consider the role of the dam in the region and the impact of dam failure should the main embankment fail.

Economy

The economy of Iraq is heavily dependent on industry and services, with agriculture providing 3% of the overall GDP, despite employing one fifth of the country (GlobalEdge). As GDP is an unreliable indicator for economic development and the local and state economies depend on other sectors such as fossil fuel energy, directly linking economic changes to the dam proved difficult.

Map 1. Iraq economic activity 1978. (Decade before dam construction).

Map 2. Iraq Economic activity 1993. (Decade after dam construction).

Because much of the economic activity of Iraq is industry, we decided to look into the agricultural impact of the Mosul Dam. Here we encountered another problem.

Agriculture

Accounting for about half of the cultivated land in the country, Nineveh governorate, in which Mosul Dam is located, has long been an agricultural center (Aboulenein).

Map 3. Land Usage 1978. (Decade before dam construction).

Map 4. Land Usage 1993 (Decade after dam construction).

The area around the Mosul Dam has been valuable farming land for decades (NCCI). This past year alone, Nineveh produced approximately 2.9 billion pounds of grain (Aboulenein) and approximately 7% of Iraq's total wheat crop in 2016-17 (Huessein et al.). However, because the region has a history as a breadbasket, and much of the irrigation infrastructure was damaged following occupation by ISIS, the relationship between the dam and agricultural growth was difficult to single out.

This led us to focus our project specifically on the role of the Mosul Dam in electricity production and flood control.

Energy Production

Located approximately 31 miles north of the Iraqi city of Mosul, and 311 miles from the capital, Baghdad, the Mosul Dam sits precariously on the Tigris River. The reservoir created by the dam holds back nearly 38 million cubic meters of water (Adamo et al). Mosul Dam provides electricity to the 1.7 million inhabitants of Mosul, the third largest city in Iraq (Annunziato et al).

Hydroelectric power accounts for 4% of the total energy produced in Iraq in 2014, with Mosul Dam providing one third of the total hydroelectric energy (Hussain et al).

Iraq is heavily dependent on fossil fuels for energy production. Still, the Mosul Dam is not an insignificant producer of energy, providing roughly 1.3% of all energy produced in the country. Poor infrastructure leads to significant energy loss, but the total installed capacity for hydroelectric power would theoretically provide 13% of the country's total energy, with the Mosul Dam offering a significant contribution (Hussain et al).

The issue of flood control was a major factor in shaping this project. The Mosul Dam is at high risk of collapse, and this threat overshadows many of the other effects of the dam.

Dam Collapse

Today the largest dam in Iraq and fourth largest in the Middle East, the reservoir was first filled in spring 1986, and immediately presented a frightening problem. The main embankment sits on a foundation of gypsum, which calls for a program of continual grouting maintenance, pumping cement and other materials to fill in foundation cracks.

The threat of collapse was heightened when, in August of 2014, ISIS gained control of the city and dam in the Battle of Mosul. During the seizure, all dam maintenance ground to a halt, turning concern over collapse into international panic. Upon the removal of ISIS forces in 2016, drastic action was required. With the assistance of the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and Italian firm Trevi SPA, the Iraqi Ministry of Water Resources commissioned a $530 million project to restore the dam to its former state. Initiated in March 2016 and completed in June 2019, the project required about 8 million hours of man-labor (Ingram). Thus the dam was restored to its pre-occupation state, but as noted by USACE task force commander Col. Philip M. Secrist III, “Mosul Dam is effectively a construction project that never ends,” as it still requires continuous regrouting to prevent total collapse (Ingram).

Should a 26% collapse occur, based on a recent EU study, many of Iraq’s greatest urban centers would be affected due to their location south of the dam along the Tigris. Mosul, Baiji, Tikrit, Samarra, and Baghdad are considered here in particular, five major cities with a cumulative population of roughly 6.2 million people, approximately 16% of the total population of Iraq. Additionally, the area of flood lands has the potential to reach up to 7,200 square kilometers--for context, a greater area than that of the state of Delaware (Annunziato).

Mosul

Initial Flood Impact: 1.7 hours. Max flooding in 6.2 hrs with a max depth of 26m. Total population ~1.6 million.

Mosul has seen 400% increase in population from 1975-2015, with 2019 numbers returning to pre-occupation levels. A high concentration of the city's population is situated along the Tigris River. Much of the city would completely flooded after 6 hours, with a 65 foot wall of water entering the city in under 2 hours.

Bayji

Initial flood impact: 16.8 hours. Max flooding after 23.5 hours with max flood Depth: 14.3m. Total population: 205,000.

Much of the population of Bayji would be impacted by a potential flood, despite being located further down the Tigris from the dam.

Tikrit

Initial Flood Impact: 21 hours. Max flooding: 26.5 hours. Max Flood Depth: 14.4m. Total population: 200,000.

Tikrit, over 160 miles downstream, would be completely inundated.

Samarra

Initial Flood impact: 25.8 hours. Max Flooding: 30.8 hours. Max Flood depth: 16.1m. Total population: 500,000.

Samarra and the surrounding area would be completely flooded.

Baghdad

Initial Flood Impact: 67 hours, with max flooding after 117 hours with a max depth of 8m. Total population: 6.9 million.

While raster data was unavailable for Baghdad, this capital city is the largest in Iraq, and has seen similar population growth over the last 40 years. Were a flood to occur, Baghdad would see an average of 2m of flooding.

In total, over 500,000 people would experience flooding of at least 5m. (Annunziato et al). However, all hope is not lost--in the summer of 2019, after severe spring floods in April, the Iraqi government announced the continuation on construction of the Badush dam. Construction of the Badush was stalled following the First Gulf War, and the intended purpose is to hold back a potential Mosul Dam flood (al-Taie).

Badush Dam & Mosul Dam distance from Mosul.

Sources

Adamo, Nasrat & Al-Ansari, Nadhir & Sissakian, Varoujan & Laue, Jan & Knutsson, Sven, “Mosul Dam: Geology and Safety Concerns,” Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture 13 (2019) doi: 10.17265/1934-7359/2019.03.001, 153.
Annunziato, Alessandro, Ioannis Andredakis, and Pamela Probst, “Impact of Flood by a Possible Failure of the Mosul Dam.” EU Science Hub (Publications Office of the European Union, 2016), 10.2788/689469, 5.
Ingram, Elizabeth, “Trevi return Mosul Dam to the Iraqi technicians, but this dam is effectively a construction project that never ends,” Iraqi Civil Society Solidarity Initiative, June 27 2019. https://www.iraqicivilsociety.org/archives/10233
“Iraq: Economy.” >> globalEDGE: Your source for Global Business Knowledge. Accessed December 2, 2019. https://globaledge.msu.edu/countries/iraq/economy.
Aboulenein, Ahmed. “After Years of War and Drought, Iraq's Bumper Crop Is Burning.” Reuters. Thomson Reuters, June 20, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-wheat-fires-insight/after-years-of-war-and-drought-iraqs-bumper-crop-is-burning-idUSKCN1TL08T.
Hussein, Salam, Abed, Al-Ansari Salwan Ali, and Nadhir. “Water Footprint of Wheat in Iraq.” MDPI. Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute, March 14, 2019. https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/11/3/535/htm.
Hussain, Mohammad, and Sanan T. “Potential of Renewable Energy Resources with an Emphasis on Solar Power in Iraq: An Outlook.” MDPI. Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute, February 25, 2019. https://www.mdpi.com/2079-9276/8/1/42/htm#B40-resources-08-00042.
https://www.ncciraq.org/images/infobygov/NCCI_Ninewa_Governorate_Profile.pdf
al-Taie, Khalid. “Mosul Dam Working at Its Best: Minister.” Diyaruna. Diyaruna, June 19, 2019. https://diyaruna.com/en_GB/articles/cnmi_di/features/2019/06/19/feature-02

Maps 1-5, came from the Perry-Castañeda Library Map Collection, from The University of Texas at Austin:

Flood maps were created using floodmap.net: