Ready for Lake Michigan Highs and Lows

Strategies and Case Studies

Erosion along the Lake Michigan shoreline

Introduction

Climate change is impacting the Great Lakes region and its communities. Rising greenhouse gas emissions have led to increased temperatures and changes in frequency and intensity of precipitation patterns across the Great Lakes and Midwest states. One outcome of these changes is extreme and variable Great Lakes water levels. In the summer of 2021, a  Chicago Action Plan for the Chicago Region , which includes seven counties in northeastern Illinois and is home to 8.9 million residents, was released with a goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80% and highlighting ways to build a resilient climate in the region. The action plan includes efforts to handle coastal erosion and flooding to increase resiliency and reduce risk and vulnerability for coastal communities.

Figure 1. Hydraulic graph of the long-term average minimum and maximum Great Lakes water levels created by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Figure 1. Hydraulic graph of the long-term average minimum and maximum Great Lakes water levels created by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Figure 1. Hydraulic graph of the long-term average minimum and maximum Great Lakes water levels created by the  U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 

The hydraulic graph above, which displays how water levels change over time, shows lake levels from 1918-2021 across the Great Lakes region. The  U.S. Army Corps of Engineers  reports monthly mean water level measurements to provide data that shows how each of the Great Lakes’ water levels compares to 1) the previous years’ levels, and 2) the long-term annual average level. Lake level is measured based on the  Net Basin Supply , combining three natural processes: runoff and precipitation, which both add water to the lake, and evaporation, which removes water from the lake. The National Weather Service defines these terms as the following:

  • Runoff - Part of precipitation that flows toward the streams on the surface of the ground or within the ground. 
  • Precipitation - Process where water vapor condenses in the atmosphere to form water droplets that fall to the Earth as rain, sleet, snow, hail
  • Evaporation - Process of a liquid changing into a vapor or gas

As shown in Figure 1, the lake levels follow a cyclic pattern each year, with highs generally reached in the summer and lows in late fall or winter. For more information on the cyclic pattern see:  Water Level Scenarios  and  Great Lakes Water Levels Q&A 

The Great Lakes region also experiences longer term variability, in which the levels cycle through periods of relative highs and lows roughly every two decades. Great Lakes water levels are different from sea levels that are observed on the Atlantic and Pacific coasts. Sea level follows a steady upward trend as a result of climate change and increased greenhouse gas emissions, and the term “sea-level rise” is often used to describe this process. 

By contrast, in 2012-13, some Great Lakes experienced all-time low water levels and then transitioned to record high and near-record high water levels in 2019 and 2020. These higher lake levels were partially driven by an increase in ice coverage during the winter months. When the lakes are covered in ice, water from the surface cannot evaporate, which lowers the lake level. Specifically, 2015-2020 were some of the wettest five years in history for the Great Lakes and Midwest regions. For more information see  Great Lakes Update 

Figure 2. Lake Michigan-Huron graph lake levels from 1918–2021

Figure 2. Lake Michigan-Huron graph lake levels from 1918–2021

Engineers and scientists often consider Lakes Michigan and Huron as a single lake ( Lake Michigan-Huron ) because they are connected at the  Straits of Mackinac . As shown in Figure 2, Lake Michigan-Huron reported its record lowest lake level in 2013, but then, lake levels  suddenly and rapidly increased for several years, leading to the second-highest lake level of all time in July of 2020. 

In fact, five of the ten highest lake levels ever measured were in 2019 and 2020. Since 2020, lake levels have decreased. Even though lake levels will remain high, record highs are not expected to be observed in 2021. Rather, it is expected that lake levels will return to lower levels and on a shorter two-decade time scale.

Figure 3. Lake Michigan-Huron Water Levels from 2000–2021 (zoomed into the black box region from Figure 2)

Figure 3. Lake Michigan-Huron Water Levels from 2000–2021 (zoomed into the black box region from Figure 2)

The image above is an enlarged version of  the black box from Figure 2 and is focused on 2000-2021. The yellow-shaded box indicates 2000-2014, which are the years during the last two decades that the lake level was below the long-term annual average. After reaching a historic all-time low in 2013, lake levels abruptly rose. The green-shaded box indicates 2015-2021, which are the years during the last two decades that the lake level was above the long-term annual average. This pattern was mainly driven by increases in ice coverage and precipitation. A near-record high water level was recorded in July 2020 before the lake started its typical pattern of decline into the winter months.

These fluctuating lake levels significantly affect erosion, water supply, flooding, and infrastructure in coastal communities of Illinois and Indiana. High water levels may lead to increased property destruction and flooding and erosion, while low water levels can disrupt shipping and transportation across the lakes. In response to this, many municipalities along the Illinois and Indiana coast are investing in mitigation plans and coastal resilience initiatives to help their communities adapt.

In this story map, we discuss four main mitigation and adaptation strategies that communities may choose to employ: 1) Natural and Living Shorelines, 2) Educational Programs and Datasets, 3) Hardening Shorelines, and 4) Relocation and Creating "No-Building" Lines. 

In each strategy, we share examples that municipalities and organizations have successfully incorporated into their efforts to become more resilient. For an overview of available options to protect your shoreline, listen to the podcast episode from Teach Me About the Great Lakes titled  Change is Inevitable . The podcast participants discuss the challenges with both high and low water levels as well as examples of living shorelines in the Chicago area. They also explain the importance of both offshore and onshore protection and the value of a multi-defense barrier system.


Strategy 1: Natural and Living Shorelines

The first mitigation strategy uses natural and living plants to not only create a shoreline that can protect property and land, but also ensure a sustainable ecosystem. Living shorelines and natural habitats can reduce flooding and erosion risks through natural materials, such as wetland plants, grasses, and sand, and are a very environmentally friendly option to protect the shoreline.

Natural and living shorelines provide a lot of benefits, some of which are outlined in NOAA's  Habitat Blueprint  website. These benefits include:

1

Fort Sheridan Ravine and Coastal Reef Restoration

Fort Sheridan, IL (20152020)

Fort Sheridan is located in northeastern Illinois along the coastline of Lake Michigan and was formerly a military base that is now part of the Lake County Forest Preserve organization. A project headed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers was approved in 2015 and construction was completed in 2020. The major focus of the project was to create a cohesive natural habitat environment with a goal of restoring native plant communities along Lake Michigan. The first phase of the Fort Sheridan project focused on restoring ravines to reduce erosion, helping to stabilize shorelines and reduce any pollution that was delivered to the lake through runoff. (Top left and right) The second phase focused on implementing underwater reefs to provide structure and a healthy habitat for fishes and birds. These reefs imitate the natural reefs that lie along the Chicago coastline and are meant to help restore the in-lake ecosystems. (Bottom left and right). As work was completed, invasive species were removed and replaced with native plants to promote a sustainable ecosystem and environment. Monitoring of the newly-installed underwater reefs will continue through at least 2025 so that the benefits provided can be better understood and observed. To learn more about this project visit the  U.S. Army Corps of Engineers , and see articles from  Natural Awakenings  and  Lake County Forest Preserves. 

Photo credit: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Chicago District

2

Toledo-Lucas County Rain Garden Initiative

Toledo, OH (2007Current)

Toledo, Ohio residents have always dealt with flooding, as the city was built in a low lying swamp. With the changing climate leading to an increase in both the intensity and frequency of precipitation, flooding in the area became more severe. In 2014, weather patterns changed significantly with extreme rain events that produced flooding in the city. In the last half century, many Midwestern states have seen more than a 40% increase in annual precipitation for the heaviest events. The increase in flooding led to contamination in Lake Erie because runoff entering the lake contained more nutrients, such as nitrogen and phosphorus, than in prior years. The Toledo-Lucas County (TLC) Rain Garden Initiative was formed, through a partnership of government agencies, educational institutions, environmental organizations and businesses, and private citizens. The initiative allows for collaborative discussions about adaptation strategies using green infrastructures to reduce flooding and protect waterways. The TLC Rain Garden Initiative offers workshops where participants can make  rain barrels  in 30 minutes for $35. One rain barrel can prevent thousands of gallons of water from entering the Great Lakes and that water can be used for irrigating lawns and gardens. The TLC Rain Garden Initiative also provides detailed instructions for setting up a  rain garden . While the cost of a rain garden and finding a manual to help to complete the installation can be challenging, over time rain gardens cost less than replanting annual plants every year. In general, it costs approximately $3-5 per square foot to install a rain garden. For more information see the  Toledo-Lucas County Rain Garden Initiative  website and  NOAA's Digital Coast  tool for Toledo. For more specific examples see their social media pages:  Instagram  and  Facebook .

Photo Credit: Toledo-Lucas County Rain Garden Initiative

Additional Resources:


Strategy 2: Educational Programs and Creation of Datasets and Products

Educational programs provide information and raise awareness for students and residents. These programs can lead to changes in behavior and increase  climate literacy , where each person comes to understand their influence on the climate as well as how the climate influences their lives, their communities, and the broader society. In addition, educational programs and outreach can prepare and inform communities by describing how climate change will directly impact their lives. By creating opportunities to engage with nearby natural environments, educational programs can help communities become more resilient to the impacts of a changing climate. 

There are many benefits to including educational programming in community budgets. In addition to outreach programming and curriculum development, creating adaptation plans allow community members the opportunity to understand the effects that climate change is having on their area. To best mitigate the challenges involved with climate change, awareness and preparedness are two key components.

1

Lake Erie Basin Nutrient Source Inventory

Lucas County, OH (20142019)

In addition to erosion and flood risk being a high concern in the Great Lakes, the emergence of algal blooms occurs frequently, mainly in the summer months (as shown on the left). Algal blooms are produced by an increase of nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) in the water and rising water temperatures and stratification (how temperature changes at varying depths), which are all intensified by climate change. Lucas County in Ohio relies on Lake Erie for its water supply and as algal blooms intensify, residents can experience negative effects on drinking water quality, as well as tourism and recreation. The increased levels of nutrients and contamination in Lake Erie also requires more money to clean and process the water. Lucas County formed a commission with the Ohio EPA to create a  Source Water Assessment Program . Through this, they created a nutrient source inventory, including this  mapping tool , to determine where the nutrient runoff originated. The commission then worked with an independent consulting firm to quantify the amount of nutrient runoff that was being produced from locations identified in the inventory. The total cost of the mapping tool, after hiring a consulting firm, running the model and publishing the website, was $250,000. The additional information generated via the mapping tool allows for better mitigation steps to be implemented, ultimately improving water quality in Lake Erie for the residents of Lucas County. For more information, see this  case study from Indiana University  and  Sustainability Commission Site Launches Nutrient Source Inventory .

Photo Credit: Indiana University Environmental Resilience Institute

2

"The Experience Climate Change" Curriculum

City of Evanston, IL (2018Current)

The Office of Sustainability for the City of Evanston, which is a city located along Lake Michigan in Illinois, launched an interactive activity for students to learn about climate change. A curriculum was developed for sixth-grade students to 1) learn about climate change and 2) create their own solutions and policies that could be implemented to provide community resilience to the changing climate. The program, titled “The Experience Climate Change,” included sixth-graders from three middle schools who learned about climate change, participated in group discussions, and presented their proposed solutions at a science fair. A $10,000 grant provided by the  National League of Cities  funded the initial project, and the program continues to be revised and implemented to expand the age range of participants. For more information on the educational program, see this  case study from Indiana University . Evanston’s Office of Sustainability is also heavily involved in projects to reduce contaminants in runoff, recycle to reduce waste production, and implement renewable energy sources in the city. For more information see Evanston’s Social Media pages:  Facebook ,  Instagram ,  Twitter  and  Youtube 

Photo Credit: City of Evanston

3

Climate Change Adaptation Plan for Indiana Dunes

Indiana Dunes, IN (20172018)

Save the Dunes, a non-profit organization in Northwest Indiana, and the Field Museum in Chicago worked together to create an adaptation plan for the Indiana Dunes National Park (left). The adaptation plan was based on extensive research and planning workshops. Workshop participants included a Climate Science Working Group, an advisory committee, and various Illinois and Indiana experts in the field. The major goal of the workshops was to determine where vulnerable habitats were located. This information has allowed for more targeted focus on those areas in the Indiana Dunes that have been greatly affected by climate change, such as impacts to the native species population. Native species had been dying off at an increased rate due to more precipitation and extreme temperatures. The Indiana Dunes Climate Change Adaptation Plan used many years of research to propose ways for how local plants and animals can adapt to climate change. The Adaptation Plan provides a “menu of solutions,” in which managers of the Indiana Dunes can determine viable options for their areas. The plan is focused on three main categories: 1) resistance - protecting habitats from climate change, 2) resilience - increasing biodiversity to prepare for future impacts, and 3) transition - to accommodate change and enable an ecosystem to respond to disturbances. The  Indiana Dunes Climate Change Adaptation Plan  provides a sense of hope to landowners and land managers and serves as a toolkit, providing tangible solutions to the problems the Indiana Dunes are facing. Other sources that discuss the adaptation plan include:  It’s okay we’re not duned  and the  Field Museum 

Photo Credit: Illinois-Indiana Sea Grant

Additional Resources:


Strategy 3: Hardening Shoreline

One of the most common strategies used to assist with the fluctuating water levels of Lake Michigan has been hardening shorelines. Hardening shorelines include building barriers to protect properties from rising water levels. Different options for barriers include:

These structures are built from materials such as concrete, sand, and rocks, and may be referred to as “gray structures” due to their color.

There are benefits to building hardening shoreline infrastructure as it provides a rigid barrier against erosion and stormwater surges. Hardened shorelines may be particularly appropriate for high-energy environments that are often met with strong wind and waves. However, hardening shorelines present many concerns as it can pose a threat to ecosystems and natural habitats, and it may have unintended consequences for neighboring shorelines.

1

Northwestern University's Wave Wall

Evanston, IL (2017)

Northwestern University in Evanston, Illinois overlooks Lake Michigan, but the Ryan Fieldhouse and Walter Athletic Center was built right on the edge of the lake, with construction beginning in 2015 and continuing until 2018 (right). The initial planning for this center occurred when Lake Michigan’s water levels were at an all-time low. Lake levels began to rise when construction on the wall started and erosion became an issue as water inched closer to the building. Northwestern University contacted a private coastal engineering firm, SmithGroup, to provide a review of the structure and a plan for the ever-changing lake levels. SmithGroup realized that the building needed protection or it would eventually fall into the lake. A wave wall was built along the edge of the building in 2017. The wave wall was designed to protect the $270 million athletic facility and contained a 90° return to limit any overtopping of water that crashed along it. Much to the relief of the university, the wall withstood the high lake levels in 2019 and 2020. For more information, see the case study by  SmithGroup .

Photo Credit: SmithGroup

2

Rosewood Park Shoreline

Rosewood Beach, IL (20122015)

In 2015, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and the Park District of Highland Park completed renovation of the beachfront along Rosewood Beach. High lake levels in the late 1990s led to severe erosion and made it necessary to demolish the beach house in 2006. The resulting lack of restrooms meant fewer visitors came to Rosewood Beach. The goal of the beach renovation project was to create a friendly beach for recreational activities and to protect the bluff from erosion. To protect the bluff, the USACE built  breakwaters  that extended out 200 feet into the lake water, creating three protected coves: one for nature, one for recreation, and one for swimming. With the added protection for the bluff, there was more confidence to install an Interpretive Center, a concession building and restrooms. The Interpretive Center, which is used for school field trips, summer camps, and even  birthday parties or family gatherings , has glass walls that display an 180° panorama view of the beach and the lake, scientific equipment and information on the importance of protecting Lake Michigan’s coastal zone, and a flat screen monitor that communicates the most recent conservation efforts to the visiting public. The Rosewood Park project provides a model for how to effectively transform a vision to a physical project that strives to protect both the ecosystem and the surrounding area against the evolving shoreline and create an inviting space for community members and tourists. To read more about the project, see  Rosewood Beach Project  and  Baird's Case Study . For more information about the Park District of Highland Park see their social media:  Facebook ,  Instagram ,  Twitter ,  Youtube .

Photo Credit: Park District of Highland Park

Additional Resources:


Strategy 4: Relocation and Creating "No-Building" Lines

Other mitigation strategies involve the physical movement of property away from the shoreline, or implementing policies that prevent building of property in certain areas i.e., those areas where properties may be at most risk of damage from rising or falling water levels. These regulatory and zoning acts help ensure that the property will be protected as climate change continues to influence the environment.

One of the benefits of relocating permanent structures back from the shoreline is that it can be more cost-effective than building a structure to prevent erosion or re-building somewhere else. In addition, other benefits of this strategy include that it is a more reliable option for protecting homes from eroding shorelines or bluffs and avoids negative impacts that neighbors may face when hardening shorelines are added.

1

City of St. Joseph "No-Building Zone"

St. Joseph, MI (2012)

In the City of St. Joseph in Michigan, one resident submitted a permit application to construct a seawall (145-foot-long by 10-foot wide) to protect his property. While a seawall can protect one area of land, it can also expose another and nearby neighbors were concerned that the seawall structure would expose their property to rough conditions. Due to disputes and concerns, the city hired a consulting firm to investigate possible effects of constructing a wall in this location. Following the review, the engineering firm recommended the best mitigation strategy to be to create a fixed setback line in which there could be no construction of permanent structures after a certain point. The city looked to introduce this idea and discuss the benefits with the community before passing the ordinance. To ensure an open conversation with the community, the city scheduled five public meetings and allowed interested citizens and city staff members to attend. At the meetings, attendees learned about the ordinance and asked questions, which alleviated any uncertainties of the situation. Even though the initial proposal caused concern for local residents, ultimately there was consensus that the setback line was necessary to protect all future structures along the shoreline. The “no-building” zone ordinance was passed in 2012. For more information, see the  Great Lakes Coastal Resilience Planning Guide  and the  U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit .

Photo Credit: Southwestern Michigan Tourist Council

2

Orchard Beach State Park Pavilion Relocation

Mainstee, MI (2020)

Rising lake levels can lead to both increased erosion of shorelines and increased frequency and duration of flooding. The land that separates the edge of the lake and properties shrinks as the lake levels continue to rise. To combat this, municipalities have two main options to protect their building(s) of interest: they can build a structure, such as a concrete sea wall, that protects the building from the rising water levels along the shoreline, or they can relocate the building. At Orchard Beach State Park in Manistee, Michigan, they chose to move an 80-year-old historic pavilion back from the eroding shoreline. The image on the left shows the pavilion after the topsoil had been removed, in preparation for the relocation efforts. The decision came about through consulting with an engineering firm to assess mitigation options.. It was determined that creating a hardened shoreline would not protect the pavilion from eventually disintegrating into the lake due to erosion, thus the relocation process was more effective both in terms of time and cost. The cost of the project was $3.6 million, including an engineering study, design, and construction. For more information, see an article from Michigan Live,  Erosion forces 400-ton historic building’s move away from Lake Michigan , detailing the relocation process and an article from Detroit Free Press,  Historic pavilion relocated from eroding bluff in Michigan state park 

Photo Credit: mlive.com

Additional Resources:


Chicago Lakefront Trail Image from Chicago Visitor's Guide

Chicago Lakefront Trail Image from Chicago Visitor's Guide


General Resources for Deciding the Best Mitigation Strategy:


Conclusion:

Lake levels will continue to cycle through both high and low water levels in the future. However, as expected from the changing climate, we will begin to see higher highs and lower lows in the Great Lakes. It is important to understand the effects that coastal processes can have on property and shorelines. Successful mitigation and adaptation strategies can help overcome these challenges, and it is exciting to see communities becoming more resilient to future changes.

In the  Chicago Action Plan  that was released in summer 2021 for the region, new coastal resilient strategies were outlined to assist with mitigating coastal processes. The plan also included action steps to address urban heating, drought conditions, and public health, due to the increase in temperatures throughout the Chicago region. The case studies above are some examples of strategies that have been effective at mitigating effects of changing lake levels along Great Lakes shorelines, and can serve as a point of reference and model for the future projects.

If you would like more information about how you can protect your shoreline or assist your town with coastal processes, many other resources and references are available to you. One resource produced by Illinois-Indiana Sea Grant has a list of organizations as well as descriptions of the work they do to assist with the process of protecting your shoreline and mitigating coastal processes. In addition, you can reach out to your state's coastal management programs for more guidance and assistance.

Additional Resources and Supplemental Information

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Developed by

Allison Milicia and Veronica Fall

With input from

Carolyn Foley, Pat Charlebois, Irene Miles, and the Illinois Coastal Management Program

Publication Number

IISG21-RCE-WEB-049

Last updated

October 2021

Figure 1. Hydraulic graph of the long-term average minimum and maximum Great Lakes water levels created by the  U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 

Figure 2. Lake Michigan-Huron graph lake levels from 1918–2021

Figure 3. Lake Michigan-Huron Water Levels from 2000–2021 (zoomed into the black box region from Figure 2)

Chicago Lakefront Trail Image from Chicago Visitor's Guide