Brexit
The problems of no deal Brexit
What is Brexit?
On January 23, 2013, British Prime Minister David Cameron first mentioned the brexit referendum.
On January 4, 2015, British Prime Minister David Cameron said that if possible, a referendum planned for 2017 would be held ahead of schedule.
On May 28, 2015, it was reported that the British government submitted and published a bill on the "brexit referendum" to the house of Commons, including statements on the referendum, and promised to hold a vote before the end of 2017.
On March 16, 2017, Queen Elizabeth II approved the "brexit" act, authorizing British Prime Minister Theresa May to officially start the brexit process
Kenton, W. Brexit Definition, 2019, November 18
The author introduced what is Brexit, the process of Brexit, and the stakeholders of Brexit. In the article, David Floyd defines, "Brexit is an abbreviation for "British exit," referring to the UK's decision in a June 23, 2016 referendum to leave the European Union (EU).
I learned from this article that leave campaign won by a close 52 or 48 percentage votes, largely because of England. Wales also voted to leave, while Northern Ireland and Scotland both voted to remain. The vote's result defied expectations and roiled global markets, causing the British pound to fall to its lowest level against the dollar in 30 years.
Prime Minister David Cameron, who called the referendum and campaigned for Britain to remain in the EU, resigned the following month. Home Secretary Theresa May replaced Cameron as leader of the Conservative party and as Prime Minister. Following a snap election (skip to section) on June 8, 2017 she remains Prime Minister, but the Conservatives have lost their outright majority in Parliament and with it – May's critics argue – a mandate for a "hard Brexit."
3 Problems Behind The Brexit
- UK-European trade relations
- Northern Ireland border issue
- Impact on British and European citizens
Sandford, A. No-deal Brexit: what would 'WTO terms' mean for UK-EU trade, 2019, October 11
This article analyzed the No-deal Brexit impact from economic aspect. It would bring a significant change in the trading relationship between the UK and the EU. A "no-deal" exit would mean that legal arrangements covering many aspects of everyday life would abruptly cease to apply.
I learned from the article the EU is the UK’s largest trading partner, although its importance has been slightly declining. Official UK figures show that 44% of all UK exports went to the EU in 2017, while 53% of all UK imports came from the EU. The impact of no deal for the UK would extend beyond its trade with the EU. At the moment Britain trades with the rest of the world as an EU member. Under “no deal”, some 40 existing trade agreements fully or partly in place between the EU and dozens of countries would no longer apply to the UK.
From EU rules to WTO rules:
WTO rules mean each member must grant the same market access to all other members – except developing countries and those that have free trade agreements. Trade experts agree that the EU could not treat the UK differently to other states: rules currently imposed on third countries would apply.
- Pro-Brexit economists argue that most world trade is done on WTO terms, which will still give the UK access to EU markets.
- Many other economists and academics argue that although the UK could indeed adjust, WTO terms would be damaging for several sectors of the British economy including services, manufacturing and agriculture.
The EU customs union eliminates tariffs as well as non-tariff barriers (quotas, for example) among EU member states, and it forces the bloc to operate as a single unit when trading with countries outside the EU. This also means that individual countries are largely restricted from striking their own, country-specific trade deals.
The single market ensures free and frictionless movement of goods, services, capital, and labor (people) among EU countries, so the EU operates without hard borders, as if it were all one country. Four other non-EU states, including Norway, have negotiated access to the single market.
O'Carroll, L. Brexit and the Irish border question explained, 2018, September 19
"There are two discrete but entangled elements to the impasse in Brexit negotiations over the Irish border: the “backstop”, which is an insurance policy that Ireland wants to ensure the border remains completely open to trade, people, and services in the event of no-deal; and the second set of negotiations on the future relationship between the UK and the EU and therefore Ireland."
Affairs, D. of F. Promoting Ireland's interests and values in the world, n.d.
This article introduced the Irish backstop, an insurance policy that says no matter what happens in the future negotiations between the UK and the EU, the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland will remain free of physical checks and infrastructure.
That border was heavily militarized during the Troubles, a decades-long conflict in Northern Ireland between “nationalists,” who identified more closely with Ireland and sought a united Ireland, and “unionists,” who identified more closely with Britain and wanted to remain part of the UK.
Brexit threatened to interrupt this altogether, as the UK’s decision to leave the EU meant that the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland would become an international one.
Morris, C. Brexit: What can UK learn from other external EU borders, 2018, May 15
This article argue that how to ensure that there is no return to a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic, once that border becomes the external border of the European Union, of its single market and its customs union.
Britain has been negotiating for three years since the referendum Brexit, and the Irish border protection clause that has led to the stalemate is only a symptom of the stalemate of Irish nationalism and unionism. If the British-Irish border is located between North and South Love, Irish nationalists will strongly oppose the split of the Irish island (nation); if the border is located at sea, the unity led by DUP (Northern-African Pro-British Party Democratic Unification Party) It is impossible for those who are satisfied to be excluded from their own country. Not only today, the British government has been a headache for more than 100 years.
Figures from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ireland show that the number of British citizens applying for Irish passports has increased by 22% in 2018 due to the impact of Brexit. After the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, British citizens' Irish passport applications more than doubled. Under Irish law, citizens are allowed to maintain dual nationality, and anyone born in Ireland or Northern Ireland or whose parents or grandparents are Irish citizens is eligible to apply for an Irish passport.
Kirby, J. Brexit's Irish border problem, explained, 2019, February 18
This article explained the government policy posted by the UK. In the case of Britain leaving the EU without a deal, the British government will bar EU citizens from entering the UK freely. However, the rights of EU citizens already residing in the country will not be affected.
I learned from January 1, 2021, the UK will use the new immigration system. EU citizens who live and work in the UK after this date will need to obtain a visa in advance, and tourists do not need a visa. The British government's new residency policy is largely a simple, free and long application process. Overall, most immigrants are satisfied with the plan and they can get the expected benefits. EU diasporas staying in the UK do not need to take immediate action, as their rights will not change before Brexit.
Click the map to see the population of clicked area
Although it shows in the map that the total population has increased during 2016 to 2017. However, the main reason for population growth is immigrations. According to " How has the economy fared since the Brexit vote" wrote by Bowler, the business reporter of BBC news. "The trend of population have changed after Brexit, the Net migration to Uk dropped to 237000 in the year to September 2016." It means that other EU citizens cannot immigrate to UK as usual, and they need to have the UK visa yet. (2017)
2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2019, December 8
This article demonstrated the whole process of 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum. And compared the advantages and disadvantages of Brexit by showing the referendum results.
By reading the map information in the article, the darker shades for a color indicate a larger margin. The results for Northern Ireland are by parliamentary constituency. The electorate of 46.5m represents 70.8% of the population. The EU just approved the UK’s latest extension request to January 31, 2020, though it offered the UK the option to depart earlier if it could approve the Brexit deal before that date.
Conclusion
It’s why Brexit still hasn’t happened yet. UK-European trade relations, Northern Ireland border issue and impact on British and European citizens, these 3 problems delay the Brexit date. It is difficult to keep up with every new development in this legend, and it is difficult to understand how Britain still cannot leave the EU from the 2016 referendum. Related to our class, the Brexit covered the economy, political, and immigration.
