Population of Texas Counties
1950 - 2018
Texas is the second largest state in the US, both by size and by population. It has 254 counties, significantly more than any other state. Throughout the past 78 years, most of its population has clustered around a few urban areas, usually spread across a few neighboring counties.
The blue graduated circles in the map to the right represent county populations in 1950, while the purple represent them in 2018. The areas where a small purple dot is surrounded by a light blue circle are places where the county's population has declined from 1950 to 2018. Counties where blue circles are surrounded by purple are where the population has declined in that period.
The map to the right shows the proportional population of Texas counties in 1950. Even in 1950, Texas' population was concentrated in a few large cities, and most of Texas' counties were very small and rural.
This map shows the proportional populations of Texas' counties in 2018. The fact that it is extremely similar to the previous map from 1950 indicates that the proportional population of the counties has largely remained static even as the absolute numbers of residents has generally increased throughout the state.
However, some important changes are visible. Houston has maintained its proportion, but its suburbs in neighboring counties have increased slightly. Austin and its neighboring county of Williamson to the northeast have increased their proportions slightly. San Antonio and Dallas have both decreased, but Dallas' surrounding counties have increased, suggesting movement into the suburbs as opposed to migration to new cities or states.
This animation shows how the population density of Texas counties has changed in the decades since 1950, ending in 2018. Each dot represents 25,000 people. Note that dots aren't placed where the people actually live. Instead they are placed at representative locations. Counties with fewer than 25,000 people will have no dots, but may share a dot on its border with a neighboring county depending on its population.
The dot clusters are in the same general locations as the largest circles on the previous map, but the dots provide a much better way to visualize the difference between the crowded urban areas and the large sparse areas between them. It is also interesting to see how some metropolitan areas like El Paso in the far west never grow beyond the limits of their county, but others like Dallas-Fort Worth in the northeast, spreads across at least 4 counties.
Here you can observe the changes in populations each decade since 1950. Some counties can be seen to fluctuate between increasing and decreasing in population from decade to decade, particularly from the 1960s to the 1980s.
Up through the 1960s, the basic spatial pattern of population change in Texas counties stayed about the same. Urban counties tended to grow and rural counties tended to shrink.
In the 1970s, something changed. Many counties that had been shrinking began to grow rapidly and several counties that had been growing now began to shrink. This may have something to do with the 1970s Energy Crisis where inflation caused the price of oil, one of Texas' top industries, to soar ¹ . New petroleum discoveries in rural areas would have caused a large influx of workers from other regions to migrate there.
By the 1980s, the pattern had largely reverted to how it was before the 1970s. This coincides with when oil prices stabilized and the energy crisis ended.
This map shows the sizes of Texas counties in 1970, and the population change for the preceding decade. Dark green circles experienced the most rapid growth. The intensity of growth in Houston is especially impressive when considering its enormous size. The growth in the small counties in central and west Texas may represent oil discoveries.
At the turn of the 20th century, Texas was mostly rural, with few significant cities³. By the end of World War II, industrialization had led to several Texan cities breaking into the top 20 most populous cities in the US, with Houston being the main beneficiary. This was largely due to Houston becoming the city with the largest concentration of oil refineries in the world⁴. By 1950, Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio each had more than 500,000 residents.
By 2018, the city of El Paso in the far west (although greatly overshadowed by Juárez, Mexico) and the capital of Austin had grown to surpass 500,000 people, while Dallas, San Antonio, and Houston were all in the millions ranked nationally as the 9th, 7th, and 4th most populous cities in the US.
This map helps to visualize the major metropolitan areas of Texas. Houston in the southeast is part of the 5th largest metropolitan in the United States⁵. The Dallas-Fort Worth region in the northeast is even larger at the 4th largest despite Dallas being much smaller than Houston because it spreads across multiple large counties. San Antonio has recently overtaken Dallas as the second largest city in Texas, but has a much smaller metropolitan area.
An interesting thing to note is the county of Hidalgo in the south of Texas which despite having no cities with more than 150,000 people, has a county population of over 800,000. No other county in Texas shows this kind of disparity.
This may be explained by the "colonias", unincorporated rural settlements that often have high poverty and lack basic infrastructure. Texas has almost 2,300 of these, higher than any other state. As of 2011, Hidalgo county has the most colonias in the state ⁶ which is considered to be a major reason for its population growing by 36% since 2000.
Texas is an enormous state both in size and in population. It has also experienced rapid growth over the last 70 years, though some counties have shrunk at times, and the growth has not always been even. It also displays interesting patterns with some regions having multiple counties growing in tandem, and others only experiencing growth in a single county.
There is little reason to think that trend will reverse any time soon. In fact, some demographers predict Houston will overtake Chicago as the 3rd most populous city in the US within the next decade ⁷ . It attracts large numbers of international migrants thanks to its petroleum plants, NASA headquarters, and its port which is the destination for more foreign cargo than any other American port.
Similarly, some predict that the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area will surpass Chicago's to become the 3rd most populous metropolitan area, possibly by 2030 ⁸ .
However, there are some possible limitations to consider. Chicago's population has been decreasing for years, which explains some of the relative changes. Hurricane Harvey in 2017 had a serious negative impact on Houston's population growth, the exact effects of which won't be apparent until the 2020 census is completed. Future hurricanes, a not uncommon disaster due to its proximity to the Gulf of Mexico, could also slow or even reverse its growth.
Additionally, perhaps the primary reason for Dallas-Fort Worth's growth is urban sprawl. With no mountains or rivers to present natural barriers to growth, the region has been growing in all directions. At some point, expanding further will result in new homes being too distant from work places, and growth will almost certainly slow.
This may not hurt Texas' growth overall, however. In fact, the 2nd, 4th, and 5th fastest growing counties in the US are all between San Antonio and Austin, and part of the explanation for this may be the relative lack of major suburbs in nearby counties of San Antonio compared to Dallas-Fort Worth, leaving open spaces that people may shift towards once Dallas-Fort Worth becomes too sprawling.
Finally, climate change may have a powerful influence over Texas' future population patterns. Southeast Texas, particularly the area around Houston, is already extremely hot and humid. It's difficult to predict how much worse it will get and what that impact that will have on its population. Between increased hurricanes and flooding, and the feedback effect from the significant use of car travel and air conditioning, Houston's days of growth may be limited. The rest of Texas, including the more arid parts, may not be far behind.