January 9, 2025 Snow Storm

A week prior to the January 9th snow storm, a powerful storm system dumped heavy snow across Kansas and Missouri, with a maximum of 12-18 inches of snowfall observed over parts of north-central and northeastern Kansas.

Model data indicated that another snow storm was predicted to bring significant snowfall to at least southeastern Oklahoma a week later. However, differences in modeled storm tracks led to uncertainties with respect to exact timing and precipitation type.

As of January 6th, there was medium (~50%) probabilities of snow across western north Texas, southwest Oklahoma, and medium-high (above 50%) chances over southeastern Oklahoma. For areas north, probabilities were low.

While amounts remained highly uncertain, probabilities of at least an inch of accumulation were high for areas generally along and south of the I-40 corridor. Surface temperatures were forecast to be marginal (near 32°F), which added to the uncertainty on accumulation potential with potential melting upon reaching the ground.

By January 7 (2 days before the storm), there was sufficient confidence that parts of southern and southeastern Oklahoma would reach Winter Storm criteria of 3 or 4 inches, depending on the county (see  NWS Winter Storm Criteria ). However, as additional model data trickled in showing drier solutions morning of January 7th, seeds of doubt were planted.

Meanwhile, arctic air remained in our area with wind chill values in the single digits.

As mentioned earlier, many of the models that ran overnight Monday and Tuesday morning backed off on snowfall amounts. For example, the 12Z Jan 7 NAM model run had zero snowfall over our area. Needless to say, this resulted in a decrease in confidence for forecast accumulations. As a result forecast snowfall trended downward with the January 7 forecast package.

The decrease in modeled snowfall appeared to be rather short-lived, with forecast amounts rebounding with the midnight shift forecast early January 8.

Being the day before the event, high-resolution models now indicated a secondary mesoscale band of heavy snowfall could occur over northwest Oklahoma with highest amounts of 4 to 6 inches expected over southeastern Oklahoma. Guidance indicated an earlier arrival of the snowfall, and a timing graphic was posted on social media and the NWS Norman webpage.

Below, the day shift forecaster noted his thoughts on the upcoming storm system.

A Winter Storm Warning was issued for parts of southern and southeastern Oklahoma and a Winter Weather Advisory over the rest of the CWA.

Before scrolling down to the details of when the storm arrived, feel free to look at the various model data provided below.

Well in advance, some models were signaling the potential for significant snowfall over southern and southeastern Oklahoma - though there was flipping and inconsistency on the details. A forecasting curveball arrived when the NAM mesoscale model depicted no snow in our area at all.

Projected snowfall trended upward on Wednesday night, just hours before the snowfall began to develop in our CWA. The Winter Storm Warning was expanded slightly.

By 5AM on January 9, a mix of sleet and freezing rain developed over western north Texas.

Precipitation continued to expand northward and transition to snow over parts of the area.

That morning's weather balloon data from 6AM showed most of the precipitation should be snow, if not transition to snow shortly.

As is done every morning and evening, NWS offices across the country launched a weather balloon at the same time. The observational data from all of those balloon flights is then plotted on a map for each level above the surface. We call these upper air analyses and surface analyses. The upper air and surface analyses for balloons launched January 9 and 10 are shown below. You can scroll up/down and side/side on the photo reels (below) to compare and track the progression of the storm system at each level.

In the first photo reel for the 6 AM January 9, note how far away the trough axis is from Oklahoma - this implied a relatively long-duration snow event was just beginning.

A new daily record was set at Will Rogers Airport in Oklahoma City for the most amount of snowfall received on January 9.

It has been awhile since such an expansive snow pack was observed over the central and southern plains! In the satellite loop from the day after the storm, the departing cloud shield (light blue) revealed the widespread snowfall accumulations (green).

The NWS Norman office compiled a map of total snowfall accumulations based on reports received from various sources, including the public. The color shading of the various accumulation amounts were calculated using the ArcGIS interpolation program. There were two primary areas that received significant accumulations - the southeastern and northwestern quadrants of our CWA.

The  National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC)  has an interactive webpage that displays snow accumulations based on LSR's submitted by NWS offices and satellite-derived amounts. If you compare the ArcGIS map above and the NOHRSC image below, it appears that higher amounts were observed near Woodward than what was reported to our office. That is not unusual as our snowfall maps from a storm event are purely dependent on the reported observations we receive. We highly encourage you to submit your observed snowfall and other weather hazards to us during or after an event!