Russia's Demographic 'Crisis'

• As we all know, Russia has a vast territory and is rich in oil, natural gas, fresh water, forests and other resources, but a large area of land is located in the cold temperate zone and frigid zone. However, due to the increasingly prominent population problems such as uneven population distribution, aging and unbalanced sex ratio, Russia's population has been declining for a long time. The population problem is becoming an important issue that profoundly affects Russia's sustainable development in many aspects such as economy, society, resources and environment.

• Natural Population Growth of Russia:

Main trends: The population of Russia peaked at 148,689,000 in 1991, just before the breakup of the Soviet Union. Low birth rates and abnormally high death rates caused Russia's population to decline at a 0.5% annual rate, or about 750,000 to 800,000 people per year from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s. The UN warned in 2005 that Russia's then population of about 143 million could fall by a third by 2050, if trends did not improve. In 2018, the UN predicted that Russia's population will fall to 132 million by 2050. The decline slowed considerably in the late 2000s, and in 2009 Russia recorded population growth for the first time in 15 years, adding 23,300. Key reasons for the slow current population growth are improving health care, changing fertility patterns among younger women, falling emigration and a steady influx of immigrants from ex-USSR countries. In 2012, Russia's population increased by 292,400. As of 2018, Russia's TFR of 1.579 children born/woman was among the highest in Eastern, Southern and Central Europe. In 2013, Russia experienced the first natural population growth since 1990 at 22,700. However since 2016 TFR has been plummeting, which has already led to a return of a growing natural decrease. In 2018 it surpassed the net migration increment leading to a slight decline of total population. Even though life expectancy in Russia is steadily growing at a high pace (~0.5 year annually) reaching all-time record highs every year, it is still not enough for recovery due to the distorted wave-like age structure of the population. The number of Russians living in poverty has decreased by 50% since the economic crisis following the disintegration of the Soviet Union, and the improving economy had a positive impact on the country's low birth rate. The latter rose from its lowest point of 8.27 births per 1000 people in 1999 to 13.3 per 1000 in 2014. Likewise, the fertility rate rose from its lowest point of 1.157 in 1999 to 1.777 in 2015. 2007 marked the highest growth in birth rates that the country had seen in 25 years, and 2009 marked the highest total birth rate since 1991. While the Russian birth rate is comparable to that of developed countries, its death rate is much higher, especially among working-age males due to a comparatively high rate of fatalities caused by heart disease and other external causes such as accidents. The Russian death rate in 2010 was 14.3 per 1000 citizens.

The main reasons for Russia's annual population decline are high death rate, low birth rate, high rate of abortions, and a low level of immigration.

High Death Rate: According to the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency's World Factbook, Russia has a very high death rate of 13.4 deaths per 1000 people per year. While decreased from a high of 15 in 2010, this is still far higher than the world's average death rate of just under 9. The death rate in the U.S. is 8.2 per 1000 and for the United Kingdom it's 9.4 per 1000. Alcohol-related deaths in Russia are very high and alcohol-related emergencies represent the bulk of emergency room visits in the country. With this high death rate, Russian life expectancy is low—the World Health Organization estimates the life expectancy of Russian men at 66 years while women's life expectancy is considerably better at 77 years. This difference is primarily a result of high rates of alcoholism among males.

Low Birth Rate: Understandably, due to these high rates of alcoholism and economic hardship, women feel less than encouraged to have children in Russia. Russia's total fertility rate is low at 1.6 births per woman; the number represents the number of children each Russian woman has during her lifetime. For comparison, the entire world's fertility rate is 2.4; the U.S.'s rate is 1.8. A replacement total fertility rate to maintain a stable population is 2.1 births per woman. Obviously, with such a low total fertility rate Russian women are contributing to a declining population. The birth rate in the country is also quite low; the crude birth rate is 10.7 births per 1,000 people. The world average is 18.2 per 1000 and in the U.S. the rate is 12.4 per 1,000. Infant mortality in Russia is 6.7 deaths per 1,000 live births; in the U.S., the rate is 5.7 per 1,000 and worldwide, the rate is 32 deaths per 1,000 live births.

Abortion Rates: During the Soviet era, abortion was quite common and was utilized as a method of birth control. That technique remains common and quite popular today, keeping the country's birth rate exceptionally low. According to a 2017 article in Foreign Policy, Russia has a ratio of around 480 abortions per 1,000 live births, only half what it was in 1995, but still enormously higher than European countries or the U.S. (about 200 abortions per 1,000 live births). Many Russian women use abortion as their sole course of birth control, and an estimated 930,000 women terminate a pregnancy each year. Surveys indicate that 72% of the population wants abortion to stay legal.

Immigration: Additionally, immigration into Russia is low—immigrants are primarily a trickle of ethnic Russians moving out of former republics (but now independent countries) of the Soviet Union. Brain drain and emigration from Russia to Western Europe and other parts of the world is high as native Russians seek to better their economic situation. Net migration (the difference between the number of persons entering and leaving a country during the year per 1,000 persons) in Russia is 1.7 migrants per 1,000 population; compared to 3.8 for the United States. Putin himself explored the issues surrounding the low birth rate during his speech, asking "What has prevented a young family, a young woman, from making this decision? The answers are obvious: low incomes, a lack of normal housing, doubts about the level of medical services and quality education. At times, there are doubts about the ability to provide enough food."

In terms of population aging, the proportion of Russia's population aged 60 and above has exceeded 17%, far exceeding the international standard of 7%, which indicates that the aging degree of Russia's population is very serious and continues to develop. As a result, Russia is already a truly aging country. It can be predicted that Russia will face a more severe aging situation with the passage of time. At the same time, gender imbalance has always been one of the population problems facing Russia. In the last century, Russia experienced two world wars and two Chechen wars. Among them, the Second World War alone cost the Soviet Union 27 million young and middle-aged people, most of whom were men. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, its domestic economy once collapsed, causing a large number of men to lose their jobs. However, men also generally play a major role in supporting the economy at home, resulting in a sharp rise in their pressure. A large number of men suffer from diseases due to excessive pressure. At the same time, in Russia's ethnic customs, men like smoking and drinking, coupled with the influence of factors such as more men driving and traffic accidents, also led to the average life expectancy of men is far lower than that of women, further aggravating the sex ratio imbalance. In 2000, the proportion of men in Russia was 46.80%. By 2018, the proportion of men dropped to 46.47%, a drop of 0.33 percentage points, which did not reverse the current imbalance of men. Moreover, due to the unbalanced sex ratio, there are fewer males in Russia. In Russia, "foreign marriage" is very common. A large number of Russian women married men from the United States, Canada, Germany, Britain, China and other countries and then emigrated. Therefore, the imbalance of the sex ratio not only intensifies the current situation of Russia's population reduction by reducing the birth rate, but also intensifies the migration tide, directly aggravating the grim situation of Russia's population reduction. The labor problem brought about by the population problem not only limits the development of its energy economy, but also brings a heavy economic burden to the country, affects the investment environment, hinders the adjustment of its economic structure, and thus is not conducive to its sustainable development process. Therefore, in Russia, the future sustainable development needs to focus on the solution of the population problem, which requires the further attention of the whole country and nation. In terms of policies, fertility is encouraged, subsidies are increased, social and cultural publicity is strengthened, the birth rate is increased, and the death rate is reduced through urban environmental construction and medical and health construction.