State of Climate Services - Five years progress (2019-2024)

World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

Introduction

The need for climate services to inform decision-making has never been greater.

According to the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, climate extremes are becoming more frequent and intense. The probability of compound events, such as concurrent heatwaves and droughts, is rising and expected to continue with global warming.

The Challenge

According to WMO’s official State of the Climate report for 2023, global surface temperatures were 1.45°C ± 0.12 °C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average.

In the period between 1970 and mid-2024, floods were the most frequently reported disaster, heatwaves caused the highest death toll, and storms resulted in the most significant economic losses.

Climate Policy

The need for climate services has never been higher​

The good news is countries are increasingly integrating climate services into their National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

Over 80% of countries that submitted a NAP recognize the critical role of climate information in informing adaptation strategies.

Similarly, around 60% of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) refer to climate services.

Global Status 2019-24

There has been substantial progress towards improving the climate service capacity levels during the last five years.

The past five years have seen significant advancements in climate services across the globe.

National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) providing ‘advanced’ climate services nearly doubled, from 8 in 2019 to 15 in 2024.

While this progress is promising, challenges remain.

In 2024, 33% of NMHSs still operate at an ‘essential’ level, with only one third offering full/advanced services tailored to specific needs.

This indicates that while we’ve made headway, there is still much room for improvement, particularly in less developed countries.

Value chain component progress

There has been notable progress across all components of the climate services value chain over the past five years; however, gaps still remain.

Significant gaps remain in basic systems and observations

In 2024, only 28 countries meet Global Basic Observing Network (GBON) standards, with 91% of weather stations in LDCs and SIDS falling short. Ocean and hydrological data gaps, particularly in the Global South, hinder our understanding and predicting of climate.

Governance

National Framework for Climate Services (NFCS) is a mechanism for coordinating the development, delivery, and use of climate services at the national level to support climate action.

Over the past five years, the number of countries implementing or developing NFCS has surged from 36 to 98, fostering cross-sectoral collaboration and ensuring that climate services are customized to empower decision-makers.

User Engagement and Co-Production of Services through User Interface Platforms

Demand for climate services has increased across all sectors, especially in government, agriculture, emergency response, commercial, and tourism industries.

Capacity Development

In 2024, 143 countries have benefited from WMO’s capacity development efforts, up from 65 in 2019. Increased regional cooperation strengthens training, data sharing, and resource pooling, improving climate service delivery, particularly in LDCs and SIDS.

Research, Modelling, and Prediction

The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) has provided global coordination to help improve climate models and predictions, with advancements in coordinating climate projections through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and regional downscaling (CORDEX) underpinning the IPCC Assessment Reports, essential for supporting mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Significant gaps remains in the Monitoring and Evaluation of Socioeconomic Benefits

Around 20% of NMHSs have conducted socioeconomic benefit assessments in the last decade, with the largest gaps identified in Africa and South America.

Improved tracking is needed to demonstrate the value of climate services and align them with national development goals.

Regional Progress

While progress has been made globally, certain regions are forging ahead.

The most vulnerable regions are making progress.

With the growing global climate challenges, Asia and Africa have made significant strides in enhancing their climate services.

In Africa, the number of NMHS providing climate services at Essential level moved from 8 to 11, and in Asia, the number of NMHS providing services at a Full level moved from 1 to 5.

Regional cooperation and investment in capacity development have been pivotal in the progress in Africa and Asia.

Between 2019 and 2024 (figure on the right), Africa and Asia have received the majority of external funding from Multilateral Development Banks compared to other regions.

Despite progress between 2019-2024, Africa is still the region with the highest percentage of Members at the ‘less-than-basic’ capacity level (15%), followed by North Central, America and Caribbean with a high concentration of Members at the ‘basic’ level (27%).

Investment

“We need to make the necessary investments for a sustainable future. The cost of no action is several times higher than the cost of action. This is why we need to increase support for NMHSs for collecting better knowledge of the Earth’s system and its changes, delivering fit-for-purpose climate services to support decision-making and developing early warning systems to protect communities from unprecedented natural hazards.

Prof. Celeste Saulo, WMO Secretary-General

Although climate finance nearly doubled, gaps still exists.

Of the $63 billion spent on climate adaptation between 2019/2020 to 2021/2022 , it is estimated that only a fraction—$4 to $5 billion—goes toward climate services and early warning systems.

The Way Forward

The world is facing a climate crisis, with the increasing temperature, and extreme weather intensifying, prioritizing climate action, investing in sustainable observation networks, and fostering regional collaboration are essential to adapt and mitigate these challenges.

Stronger focus on climate action in the context of the EW4All initiative

To effectively adapt to evolving challenges, we need to bridge the gap between short-term weather events and long-term climate impacts.

There is a need to improve network of reliable climate observations all around the world

This requires enhanced collaboration and increased resources to close the gap in the Global Basic Observing Network, especially with the support of the Systematic Observations Financing Facility.

 

Promoting Regional Cooperation

Regional cooperative approaches can be further promoted by building on the sharing of resources, experiences, and lessons learned that WMO Members are already engaging in.

Ensuring Climate Investments Are Climate-Informed

All climate action investments need to be climate informed so that they can be forward looking bearing in mind that the past climate is no longer indicative of the future climate.

Case Studies

CREWS Southwest Indian Ocean Regional Project - Mauritius, Seychelles, and Comoros

CREWS Southwest Indian Ocean Regional Project - Mauritius, Seychelles, and Comoros. Click to expand.

The challenge

Strengthening climate information and early warning systems in Cambodia to support climate resilient development and adaptation

Strengthening climate information and early warning systems in Cambodia to support climate resilient development and adaptation. Click to expand.

The challenge

Reinforcing the capacities of meteorological and hydrological services and enhancing early warning systems (EWSs) in Cambodia and Lao PDR

Reinforcing the capacities of meteorological and hydrological services and enhancing early warning systems (EWSs) in Cambodia and Lao PDR. Click to expand.

The challenge

Closing data gaps and strengthening the foundation for reliable climate services in Maldives

Closing data gaps and strengthening the foundation for reliable climate services in Maldives. Click to expand.

The challenge

Earth observations for high precision drought detection and emergency response

Earth observations for high precision drought detection and emergency response. Click to expand.

The challenge

Fortifying climate resilience in Ecuador’s coastal cities through empowering national meteorological and hydrological services

Fortifying climate resilience in Ecuador’s coastal cities through empowering national meteorological and hydrological services. Click to expand.

The challenge

CREWS Caribbean Regional Project

CREWS Caribbean Regional Project . Click to expand.

The challenge

Strengthening marine services in Trinidad & Tobago

Strengthening marine services in Trinidad & Tobago. Click to expand.

The challenge

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Methodology focusing on Women and Girls

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Methodology focusing on Women and Girls. Click to expand.

The challenge

A multi-hazard impact-based forecasting and early warning system for the Philippines

A multi-hazard impact-based forecasting and early warning system for the Philippines. Click to expand.

The challenge

CREWS Southwest Indian Ocean Regional Project - Mauritius, Seychelles, and Comoros

The challenge

The SWIO region is highly vulnerable to climate variability and numerous hazards, including cyclones, storms, storm surges and flooding. Currently, the population affected by these hazards is estimated to be 14.4 million people across the five countries of the region (Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius, Seychelles and Mozambique). However, in the medium term, this number is expected to increase as the frequency of more intense cyclones will increase due to climate change. Mozambique alone has been impacted twice by cyclones in 2019 and over half of its population is susceptible to climate-related shocks. Mauritius is facing a constant challenge in protecting its communities from coastal inundations and storm surges. Similarly, Seychelles is continually impacted by heavy rains and floods. Yet, the adaptive capacities of the region and individual countries remain limited. In this context, it becomes crucial to enhance the resilience of communities and economic sectors by strengthening multi-hazard, impact-based, risk-informed and people-centred early warning systems.

The approach

In line with the principles of the cascading forecast model for numerical weather prediction, the project supports access to and optimal use of global model outputs at the regional level, access to and optimal use of more accurate regional outputs by national institutions and access to better local observations by global models.

By taking advantage of economies of scale, the project focuses on strengthening regional centres' capacities to transfer and build technical and human capacities in national institutions and improve the five countries' climate adaptation and prevention, as well as emergency preparedness and response. More precisely, it is strengthening the existing cooperation framework and supporting dissemination, emergency planning and response capacities in each of the beneficiary countries (i) to sustainably increase the capacity of national hydrological and meteorological services, (ii) to enable more optimal use of resources available for the meteorological and hydrological forecasting and climate prediction in the region and (iii) to enhance the services provided to stakeholders involved in early warnings, with a specific focus on civil protection, urban development, agriculture and vulnerable communities.

The results

By conducting gap assessments in Mauritius, Seychelles and the Comoros, and at the regional level, a better understanding of challenges faced by countries in achieving effective early warning systems has been obtained. This has provided clear guidance on the areas of the early warning–early action value chain upon which the project had to act.

In pursuing the cascading principles, two regional centres have been accredited to support the five countries in monitoring and forecasting climate and weather. This has facilitated the availability of forecasting and warnings for tropical cyclones and droughts in all countries covered by the project.

At the country level, activities have been carried out to improve warning dissemination, emergency planning and response capacities. This resulted in Madagascar communicating warnings through a common alerting protocol (CAP) and the enhancement of risk information available in two river basins in the province of Cabo Delgado, Mozambique. In Seychelles, a revision of the disaster risk management policies led to the strengthening of the link between forecasting and early action, which has been integrated into the new strategic plan of the Seychelles Meteorological Authority (SMA), the drafting of which has also been supported by the CREWS project. Finally, the capacity-building support provided to NMHSs has been fundamental in improving lead time, reliability and accuracy of forecasts and warnings.

Limitations and lessons learned

The seamless approach to early warning supported by the project has been truly beneficial to the targeted countries. The project leverages the economies of scale by promoting regional collaboration and contributes to the development of a cost-effective hydrometeorological system regionally. Such an approach also provides cross-learning opportunities for countries in the region and facilitates a peer-to-peer support system. To name one, the Southwest Indian Ocean Climate Outlook Forum guides national NMHSs in relation to long-range forecasting, climate monitoring, and data services at the regional level, with a specific focus on (i) enhancing the governance of the Southwest Indian Ocean Climate Outlook Forum, (ii) developing a customized Climate Service Toolkit for the SWIO Region, (iii) developing the SWIO RCC-Network, and (iv) holding annual workshops.

The success factor

One key aspect that has favoured the successful implementation of the project was the strong coordination among implementing partners and the leverage of existing projects. In Mauritius, the three CREWS implementing partners (WMO, UNDRR and the World Bank) carried out detailed and coordinated diagnostics on the status of MHEWS and defined clear guidance on national and regional priorities. Similarly, alignment was fostered with other projects such as the Hydromet project. In this context, a clarification of the two projects' scope prevented duplication of activities and favoured complementarity. This coordination can also be observed in Seychelles, where CREWS supported the drafting of the SMA Strategic Plan while a Norwegian-funded project supported the development of the SMA website.

Partners: CREWS

Strengthening climate information and early warning systems in Cambodia to support climate resilient development and adaptation

The challenge

Cambodia faces heightened vulnerability to climate-related hazards such as floods, droughts and storms. The country’s EWSs were inadequate due to the insufficient meteorological and hydrological monitoring infrastructure, insufficient data processing and limited dissemination capabilities, leaving communities and sectors unprepared for climate-related events. This project addressed these gaps by enhancing the country's ability to monitor, forecast and respond to climate-related hazards, thereby improving disaster preparedness and resilience.

The approach

The project focused on enhancing Cambodia’s climate observation infrastructure by installing new meteorological and hydrological stations, upgrading existing ones, and establishing upper-air monitoring stations. It developed risk mapping and forecasting tools, provided tailored climate information services and built institutional capacity for EWS maintenance. It also involved community-based approaches, including training programmes for key personnel in climate data modelling and forecasting.

The results

Significant achievements of the project included the installation of 24 automatic weather stations and 29 hydrological stations, training over 29 specialists in climate modelling, and establishing Drought Information Hubs in eight provinces. Additionally, over 1 300 farmers were trained in drought-resistance techniques, and more than 24 628 new subscribers were added to the EWS1294 telephone service, which now also enables multi-channel dissemination (such as radio and SMS broadcasting, public loudspeakers and so forth). Likewise, 23 “Women Champions” have been trained in disaster risk reduction and EWSs and three national climate outlook forums (“Monsoon Forums”) have been hosted. The development of national frameworks and standard operating procedures (SOPs) for EWSs has improved communication and coordination among stakeholders, enhancing community resilience to climate-related hazards.

Limitations and lessons learned

Challenges included procurement delays, coordination among multiple stakeholders, data sharing among agencies, and limited local technical capacity. Key lessons highlighted the importance of ongoing training and capacity development, streamlined procurement processes, and the value of involving communities early in the project to ensure ownership and effective use of the EWS.

Success factors

Success factors included robust government support, effective collaboration with international partners such as the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and the integration of community-based strategies in the EWS. Capacity development and strong institutional frameworks were crucial for achieving project objectives and ensuring long-term sustainability.

Donors and implementing partners: Global Environment Facility (GEF), UNDP

Reinforcing the capacities of meteorological and hydrological services and enhancing early warning systems (EWSs) in Cambodia and Lao PDR

The challenge

Cambodia and Lao PDR, Lower Mekong Countries, are extremely prone to hydro-meteorological hazards. The succession of typhoons, floods, and droughts experienced by the region over many years have resulted in major loss of lives, livelihoods, and economic assets and the disruption of infrastructure services.

 Among all hydrometeorological hazards, floods and droughts stand out as significant threats which are keeping both Cambodia and Lao PDR in a constant state of exposure and vulnerability to them. This vulnerability has been further exacerbated by the countries’ heavy dependence on the services sector and climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and fisheries, which employ the largest share of the national workforce.

Climate change is another exacerbating risk factor and adds another layer of uncertainty, given the more severe dry seasons, monsoons, and rising sea levels that are being observed over the past years. Consequently, the capability of monitoring, predicting, and communicating the occurrence of these extreme events and their impacts has become a national priority for Cambodia and Lao PDR.

The results

As part of the workplan, needs assessments and consultation were conducted in Cambodia and Lao PDR which highlighted the need to strengthen the capacities of national hydrometeorological services and to establish people-centred EWSs in the region.

While considering the whole early warning-early action value chain, this CREWS project has focused on developing national flood and drought risk maps in three pilot areas in both Cambodia and Lao PDR which will feed directly into their EWSs. In alignment with these risk information tools, sub-national preparedness and response plans have been developed. These aim to contribute to enhanced impact-based forecasting and feed into Cambodia National Flood Plan. In Lao PDR, together with the trained local authorities and village disaster management committees, 15 community-based disaster risk management (DRM) plans outlining key preparedness and response measures for target communities have been finalized through a validation exercise in the target communities in the Phogsaly Province. In Cambodia, the EWS1294, a community-based warning dissemination system which is connected to river gauges and sends warning messages to mobile phones of registered users in the areas that are at risk of flooding, has been adopted by the National Committee for Disaster Management (NCDM) and strengthened under this CREWS project.

Limitations and lessons learned

The main limitation to project implementation was the limited human resources capacity of the two NMHSs. Despite this, the NMHSs’ staff and sub-national DRM authorities actively participated in the project activities on top of their regular functions. Moreover, this limitation was partly mitigated by the strong working relationships that were established with national agencies and complementary project activities that directly addressed this challenge.

 

Donors and implementing partners: CREWS initiative, WMO, UNDRR, Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR)

Closing data gaps and strengthening the foundation for reliable climate services in Maldives

The challenge

Climate change has been described as the “single biggest existential threat” to the Maldives. Its small size and low elevation – over 80% of its land area is less than one metre above sea level– as well as heavy dependence on natural resources for its social and economic security make it acutely vulnerable to climate change impacts and climate-related hazards. Strengthening climate services and EWSs are among the key priority climate change adaptation actions for Maldives in the face of intensifying climate change threats.

 Over the years, the Maldives Meteorological Service (MMS) has made significant progress towards “providing accurate, timely and reliable meteorological information to minimize the impact on life and property while supporting sustainable socioeconomic development of the Maldives” as per its mandate. However, its capacity is limited due to multiple factors, including: geographic, financial and logistical constraints for maintenance of equipment; too few qualified staff for local climate modelling and impact-based forecasting; inadequate financial resources for delivering sustainable climate services; and challenges in data sharing and inter-agency cooperation. These capacity gaps impede the ability of MMS to deliver reliable climate services that can inform actions to safeguard the Maldivian population, livelihoods, ecosystems and assets from climate-related hazards and extreme climate events.

 The approach

In 2023, Maldives was programmed to receive support from SOFF to close the most significant weather and climate data gaps to comply with the WMO  Global Basic Observing Network (GBON)  standard. The implementation of GBON will significantly strengthen the provision of high-quality weather forecasts, EWSs and climate services at global, regional and national levels.

 Within the SOFF Readiness Phase, the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) and the Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) updated the  Country Hydromet Diagnostics  (CHD, initially prepared in 2021) for Maldives, and identified the country’s requirements for GBON compliance. Building on this, a USD 4.8 million SOFF Investment Phase was approved to strengthen technical, human and institutional capacity of MMS for GBON compliance, which will be implemented by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in Maldives from 2024 to 2029. After this, Maldives will transition to the SOFF Compliance Phase, during which the country will receive funds directly for continuous maintenance of the GBON infrastructure.

 There are significant ongoing efforts to advance Maldives climate services and early warning capacity. UNEP is working with Maldives to develop a GCF proposal which focuses on holistic strengthening of climate services and EWSs covering the entire population (“TRACT”, see below). It will serve as a key financing mechanism to implement the EW4All initiative in the country, via the Scaling Up EWSs Implementation Roadmap, which was endorsed in January 2024.

 The results

Preparation of SOFF Readiness Phase documents (GBON Gap Analysis, GBON National Contribution Plan and CHD) has been critical for identifying the main GBON gaps and needs in Maldives, informing the SOFF Investment Phase and supporting national adaptation goals by providing a basis for expanding and strengthening the hydrometeorological observation network and EWSs for climate-related hazards. Standardization of assessment methodologies has also made it possible to compare the state of climate services in various countries, enabling more coordinated programming approaches. The SOFF Readiness outputs, especially the CHD, which undertakes a holistic assessment of the entire hydrometeorological value chain, are also helping to inform the development of other projects in Maldives aimed at improving climate services, including the proposed GCF-funded project “Toward Risk-aware and Climate-resilient Communities (TRACT) – Strengthening Climate Services and Impact-based Multi-hazard Early Warning in Maldives”. Demonstrating its commitment to advancing development of the TRACT project, the GCF Secretariat approved around USD 300 000 in Project Preparation Facility (PPF) financing in March 2024. The PPF resources focus on building a strong foundation of knowledge on the existing conditions in Maldives, particularly in relation to localized climate risks and intersectional vulnerabilities, complementing the SOFF Readiness activities. The result of these initiatives is the establishment of a comprehensive baseline for climate services in Maldives and a clear evidence base for well-targeted investments.

 Limitations and lessons learned

While the SOFF approach is essential for providing the underlying infrastructure and capacity to close the most critical weather and climate data gaps, more efforts are needed to comprehensively strengthen provision of climate services in Maldives. The CHD identified many specific needs which are beyond the scope of the SOFF Investment Phase, such as: (i) filling gaps in marine observations, (ii) technical training and capacity development in modelling and forecasting, (iii) implementation of impact-based forecasting as well as sectoral-based and locally contextualized warnings, (iv) strengthening collaboration and data sharing between multiple stakeholders, and (iv) establishing a continuous user engagement process. These needs will be addressed through the proposed GCF TRACT project, underlining the importance of a harmonized approach to climate services investments to maximize efficiency and impact at the country level.

 Success factors

Success of current and future initiatives to strengthen climate services will largely lie in the ability to take a coordinated approach underpinned by strong country ownership. For example, standardized country-level assessments as part of the SOFF Readiness Phase are important to ensure that all the necessary activities are implemented to achieve sustained compliance with GBON. The proposed GCF TRACT project aims to institute the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) at the national level to help coordinate, facilitate and strengthen collaboration for enhanced generation and use of climate services to inform decisions and actions to reduce climate-related risks. The proposed GCF project will also be informed by the broader assessment of EWS capacity in Maldives, conducted as part of the EW4All initiative. Moreover, successful provision of user-driven climate services is enabled by the ability of multiple stakeholders to collaborate and share information. Engagement of a wide range of parties in the process of developing, piloting and using climate services, including government agencies, private sector, NGOs, civil society and development partners, with a focus on gender equality and social inclusion, will be a critical success factor.

 Donors and implementing partners: SOFF, GCF, UNEP, WMO, FMI, BMKG, MSS

Earth observations for high precision drought detection and emergency response

The challenge

As a leading global soybean producer, Argentina is closely monitored by the Group on Earth Observations Global Agricultural Monitoring (GEOGLAM) through its Crop Monitor for Agricultural Markets. This initiative aims to enhance transparency and stability in agricultural markets and trade.

During the 2017/2018 growing season, Argentina faced very severe drought conditions, which significantly affected the production and yield of soybean, among other national crops. The Argentine Government, through the Ministry of Agriculture, urgently needed accurate, reliable and authoritative scientific evidence to help inform and support policy decisions to protect people’s livelihoods.

The approach

Working closely with the Ministry of Agriculture, the National Agricultural Technology Institute (INTA), GEOGLAM’s national partner, developed high-resolution satellite-based evapotranspiration anomaly products. These products were combined with other satellite-derived data such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), to provide comprehensive information on vegetation conditions and health.

The results

The information generated enabled the government to declare an agricultural emergency with unmatched spatial precision. Further, armed with this critical information, the government was able to trigger and target financial safety net measures to the affected regions with great precision and efficiency, saving both time and financial resources that would otherwise be spent on blanket reactive response measures.

The use of Earth observations (EO) has since become an integral part of the agricultural monitoring process in Argentina, spearheaded both by INTA and the Ministry of Agriculture. Since the 2018/2019 growing season, INTA has developed national crop maps, generated annually. This information improves the precision of the satellite image-derived vegetation indices, which can now be focused on agricultural areas or specific crops. Further, a locally adapted version of the Global Agriculture Monitoring (GLAM) system has been developed and is used to provide the government and other stakeholders with consistent, accurate and timely reports on national crop conditions. In addition, the Argentina national map of crops is used in this system to obtain crop masks, which are used to estimate indices and improve predictions about specific crops.

As a result of these technological enhancements in agriculture monitoring, the government, through its multi-institutional board, was able to prepare and manage the 2022/2023 drought, one of the most severe in Argentine history, with increased efficiency.

 Limitations and lessons learned

The COVID-19 pandemic constituted one of the challenges faced in agricultural monitoring efforts, both in Argentina and globally. Movement restrictions due to the pandemic hindered the collection of ground data, a critical element in the systematic monitoring, modelling and assessment of agricultural production using EO. Lack of ground data hampers the ability to train, validate and otherwise contextualize and inform local agriculture assessments based on EO. Nevertheless, despite these restrictions, initiatives such as the Argentine national map of crops have been generating maps on a continuous basis since the 2018/2019 growing season, to date.

 Success factors

Solid partnerships and collaboration were key to this initiative's success. Experts and scientists from INTA physically moved into the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture to ensure close collaboration and enhance the co-development process. Further, the availability of open EO data, among other open resources developed and shared within the GEOGLAM network and larger EO community, contributed significantly to the success of this initiative.

 Partners: GEOGLAM, INTA, NASA Harvest

Fortifying climate resilience in Ecuador’s coastal cities through empowering national meteorological and hydrological services

The challenge

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon poses a severe threat to Ecuador, particularly to the city of Esmeraldas, which is susceptible to ENSO-related disasters such as flooding, landslides and sea-level rise.

The Instituto Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología (INAMHI), Ecuador’s primary institution responsible for national meteorological and hydrological services, faces significant challenges due to inadequate financial support, insufficient infrastructure and limited personnel capabilities. INAMHI’s ability to provide comprehensive, accurate and timely meteorological and hydrological information services to the public in Esmeraldas is therefore severely constrained. People living not only in the Esmeraldas region but all over Ecuador have no reliable source of detailed climate information to which they can refer.

As a result, more than 60% of Esmeraldas’ residents lack access to the critical information and warnings necessary to protect themselves against the impending disaster risks exacerbated by climate change. Annually, floods and landslides have continuously devastated the lives and properties of thousands of people in Esmeraldas, underscoring the urgent need for effective disaster preparedness and response measures.

 The approach

Given the lack of accessible climate information in the Esmeraldas region, the initial focus was to provide residents with a user-friendly and reliable platform for accessing climate data essential for disaster preparedness and emergency response. To achieve this, the "Visor Climático" platform was developed, integrating various climate information sources, including precipitation, temperature, wind and river level data. This platform features an intuitive interface that enables users to easily access, customize and download useful climate data according to their specific decision-making needs. After the successful implementation of Visor Climático, efforts shifted towards leveraging the available data to train an artificial intelligence (AI) model for advanced analysis and forecasting of potential disasters. Recognizing the limitations of local data sources, due to a lack of meteorological and hydrological monitoring infrastructure, the project integrated external climate models, including multispectral infrared-based predictions and WRF model forecasts, to enhance the reliability and accuracy of the AI model.

 Ultimately, the forecasting results generated by the AI model were integrated with the existing EWS deployed in Esmeraldas, enabling timely notification of potential extreme events to residents in the region. This comprehensive approach aimed to empower local communities with accessible climate information and robust forecasting capabilities, thereby enhancing their resilience and preparedness for climate-related disasters.

The results

The implementation of this project has equipped the residents of Esmeraldas with effortless access to comprehensive hydrometeorological information through a reliable and real-time climate data source. This enables them to promptly assess and respond to potential disasters. Recognizing the technical barriers, an EWS integrated into popular communication channels like Telegram ensures timely notifications when critical climate variables (such as precipitation and river level) surpass risk thresholds. Initially piloted in Esmeraldas, the project’s success facilitated extension of its mechanism and web application to Ecuador's national hydrometeorological station network. Consequently, individuals across all covered areas now enjoy equal access to user-friendly climate information, and receive identical alert notifications regarding impending risks. This comprehensive approach significantly enhances community climate resilience by providing accessible and actionable information, enabling proactive preparedness and response measures against climate-related hazards.

 Limitations and lessons learned

The project faced challenges stemming from Ecuador's inadequate climate information service infrastructure. Lack of a unified management structure led to meteorological and hydrological stations being operated by various institutions, increasing communication costs and data integration difficulties due to disparate formats and storage locations. This created barriers to synthesizing diverse climate data sources into a one-stop information service.

Cooperation with local government units for project promotion and end-user education proved crucial for maximizing the impact of the proposed climate information service. The local community's perception and acceptance of the provided climate service determined the project's success. The most valuable lessons extended beyond the technologies developed. For a large-scale project with widespread reach, collaboration and coordination among stakeholders were paramount. Without cooperation with national ministries and institutions, accessing the required climate resources and infrastructure would have been impossible. Without efforts from local communities and governments, understanding the actual risks and disasters faced by residents would have been challenging.

 Partners: UNDP, INAMHI

CREWS Caribbean Regional Project

The challenge

The Caribbean region is highly exposed to hazards, in particular, hurricanes, tropical storms, floods, droughts and landslides, which cause serious human and economic damage and losses in the region.

Between 1980 and 2007 nearly 98% of the disasters, casualties and economic losses in the region have been attributed to hydrometeorological and climate events. Climate change is expected to further exacerbate hazard levels while unplanned urban expansion and inadequate construction practices are continuously increasing vulnerabilities. Yet, the adaptive capacities in the region remain limited. In this context, strengthening regional and national systems and capacity for weather forecasting, hydrological services, MHEWS and service delivery becomes a priority in the region.

The approach

The CREW'S project has supported the development of a regional road map based on a comprehensive situational analysis and MHEWS gap analysis. This road map offers a common framework that emphasizes the optimization of resources and promotes coherence in national expenditures. It serves as a guide for donor investments, aiming to align activities with national and regional priorities to prevent fragmentation and inefficiencies. The activities within the road map propose an approach that leverages existing regional-level capacities and initiatives in the region. Finally, all activities under the CREWS project followed a gender-responsive, people-centred and inclusive approach that ensures that all individuals, regardless of their gender and socioeconomic status, will benefit from project outcomes and effectively receive and respond to early warnings.

The results

CREWS supported the operationalization of a cascading forecasting system that feeds into comprehensive and coordinated people-centred EWSs in the Caribbean region. The development of a regional road map has served as a guide to align activities with national and regional needs and gaps: for instance, the development of a weather application for smartphones to make weather information accessible in Jamaica, and the improvement of open-source global and national risk data in Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago. This close coordination also favoured institutional strengthening and streamlining of early warning and hydrometeorological services. In this regard, the project has supported the piloting of high-priority national activities on end-to-end EWSs namely: (i) the transition to impact-based forecasting and warning services; (ii) the development of a prototype of a regional multi-sensor precipitation grid to increase regional capacity for forecasting and using multi-hazard early warnings to increase regional capacity in forecasting; (iii) the implementation of an end-to-end flood-integrated operational EWS in Jamaica and Santa Lucia; and (iv) a technical study for the development of the Regional Emergency Alert system, a regional impact-based emergency alert communication and dissemination system. All activities were carried out by putting people and their needs at the centre, as integral to CREWS' value propositions.

 Limitations and lessons learned

Different lessons learned can be drawn from the project implementation. Firstly, connecting the capacities of regional institutions with the national services is critical for the sustainability of results. This is particularly true for regions such as the Caribbean, which are equipped with strong regional institutions. Moreover, regional ownership of the road map as the commitment to improving the region's MHEWS is vital. Regional centres have a key role in providing direction and leadership to their Member agencies. Additionally, they require strong national and local operational coordination and interoperability since the implementation of activities is mainly at a national level.

 Finally, an adequate policy and regulatory environment is required to advance technical progress jointly in all countries covered by the project, and to implement the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency’s (CDEMA) Model National MHEWS Policy. Supporting a regionally harmonized approach is essential for inter-agency data sharing, developing the applications and modelling that are crucial for the transition to impact-based forecasting, and facilitating the expansion of private sector collaboration along the whole EWS value chain.

 Donors and implementing partners: CREWS, Caribbean Meteorological Organization (CMO), Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH)

Strengthening marine services in Trinidad & Tobago

The challenge

As an island State, Trinidad and Tobago has close connections between its human communities, and its coastal and marine environments, which are sources of livelihoods, recreation and hazards. The blue economy is an intrinsic part of both culture and livelihoods for the population. The coastal culture has many varied facets and stakeholders. The marine hazards that can impact it include coastal flooding, extreme sea levels and hazardous seas, storm surge, tropical cyclones and marine heatwaves. These hazards are expected to have increasingly adverse impacts with global temperature increases. Already, these hazards have caused economic losses and damages, and present TTMS with new demands to deliver appropriate marine meteorological information to the country’s coastal population and marine and maritime-based economic sectors.

To this end, TTMS aims to enhance and develop its marine and oceanographic meteorological services capacity. This would lead to an improvement in the effectiveness of the service provided and to enhance the capacity and communication of TTMS officers on marine meteorology forecasting. A better understanding of the needs within the maritime communities is crucial for the development of future marine meteorology solutions, where co-development, co-design and co-delivery will be key to providing user-oriented services.

The approach

TTMS, the Caribbean Meteorological Organization (CMO) and WMO jointly organized a workshop on Improving Marine Meteorological and Oceanographic Services in Trinidad and Tobago, which was held from 16 to 18 May 2023.

The execution strategy for the workshop included several crucial stages. Following a pilot workshop organized by WMO and the Grenada Airports Authority in Grenada in November 2022 under the umbrella of the CREWS Caribbean project, TTMS requested a similar workshop to be organized in Trinidad and Tobago.

The objectives of the workshop were to:

·       Identify user needs at decision points along their value chain and meteorological phenomenon relevant to users;

·       Explore how ocean and marine weather services can enhance various types of decision-making for marine stakeholders during day-to-day operations, disaster risk management and incident response, and long-term planning and initiatives;

·       Expand and enhance relationships between TTMS and external end users of TTMS products and services;

·       Identify the operational constraints and drivers which have an impact on the way in which TTMS achieves its marine meteorological services to satisfy its stakeholders' needs;

·       Strengthen marine meteorology forecasting communications based on stakeholder feedback;

·       Improve the effectiveness of the marine meteorology forecasting service provided by TTMS.

The workshop, held on both islands, strengthened the relationship between TTMS and its key marine sector users, and increased the TTMS knowledge of their needs and requirements. Over the first two workshop days, over 50 representatives and users of marine services from different sectors – fisheries, port authorities, academia, oil and gas, tourism and disaster risk reduction – actively participated in and contributed to the workshop. Key needs that were identified included the provision of additional, marine-related information, real-time and localized information, impact-based forecasts and more accessible information provided by TTMS.

While user requirements and needs were collected on the first two workshop days, these were analysed and discussed together with TTMS staff on the third day. The last workshop day also included training sessions on astronomical tides and support provided by internal expertise from TTMS and the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the region.

The results

The result was a summary of needs from key users and a statement of needs from the meteorological service to be presented to local authorities. Further, a marine bulletin was developed. Feedback from users provided key points to identify needs for further development in identified grey areas. A critical area was the involvement of staff and forecasters. There was an unbiased analysis of user needs, resources, staffing capacity and the training required to be able to fulfil those needs. In light of policy decisions, these analyses have not yet been part of any forward movement, as resources to accomplish them are currently minimal to non-existent.

 Limitations and lessons learned

Despite the efforts, given the limited capacity of TTMS, the marine team was discontinued, and user-specific marine products are basic at best. Nevertheless, it was beneficial to consult especially small fishers and representatives from the tourism and other sectors, to really identify the needs of the different key users. These sectors provide much needed on-the-ground verification and validation of sea conditions when marine alerts, watches and warnings are issued via the common alerting protocol (CAP) system. With the Early Warnings for All initiative, the involvement of all marine sectors will provide an integrated loop feedback mechanism which will aid in the scarcity of some of the required resources. In this way, while the identified limitations may not be overcome, they will be partially addressed to enable the provision of marine services. This approach will foster a strengthened focus on marine services and will at least enable TTMS to streamline towards marine service delivery attributes.

 Success factors

The success of the initiative can be attributed to meticulous workshop planning spearheaded by TTMS to include local organizations. Its intimate knowledge of community dynamics and needs ensured that workshops were tailored effectively. It was crucial that local stakeholders from different groups were included in the workshop.

 Longevity of marine service delivery from TTMS will depend strongly on the contributions and willingness of the staff members who provide these products and services. In this regard, specialized marine training to build capacities and motivation and interaction with the stakeholders are necessary components in the way forward. This collaborative approach for the workshop not only enhanced the relevance and effectiveness of the initiative but also fostered a sense of empowerment and inclusivity among stakeholders, key factors in its overall success. In this regard, a dedicated marine section to focus on these key areas is identified as the core of the success in the value chain and in the way forward.

 Partners: WMO, TTMS, CMO, CIMH

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Methodology focusing on Women and Girls

The challenge

The Philippines is extremely vulnerable to climate change, both from extreme weather events and slow-onset trends. It ranks highest in the World Risk Report for disaster risk worldwide. Among the vulnerable groups, children born in 2020 are believed to live through 4.9 times more heat waves, 2.3 times more river floods, 1.2 times more droughts, and 1.5 times more crop failures than people 60 years ago.

Beyond the tangible effects of climate change, social disparities play a pivotal role in shaping the susceptibility and resilience of populations to the adverse consequences of climate change. The intersectionality of health, economic, and socio-political factors with climate change further compounds challenges for already at-risk populations, including women and girls. Among the few economic and socio-political vulnerabilities of women and girls that climate-induced hazards accentuate are gender-based violence, underrepresentation in decision-making, and the dual burden of caring for children at home and seeking additional income or employment.

This action research aims to pilot test the use of a locally driven, gender-transformative, and child-friendly Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) tool. The tool identifies and quantifies sex- and age-specific factors that influence the vulnerability and resiliency of women and girls towards the risks brought upon by climate hazards. It also integrates qualitative approaches to delve deeper into how these factors shape climate risk. This information is seen as supporting targeted policy development, climate change adaptation, and risk mitigation plans on a municipal level. Given the geographical diversity of the Philippines, its unique political context of a devolved or decentralized government, and the intrinsic link between livelihood and the local environment, location-specific analysis at the level of cities and municipalities was also used.

The approach

The study used an explanatory sequential mixed-methods research design, starting with quantitative data collection followed by qualitative data collection and analysis. The Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission and the Inter Agency Standing Committee's (IASC) INFORM Risk Framework served as its overarching framework (Marin-Ferrer et al., 2017). It defined risk as the direct function of hazard exposure and vulnerability and indirectly related to resilience capacity (climate change risk = hazard exposure x vulnerability / resilience capacity).

 Each risk dimension of the CRVA framework was broken down into several subdomains. The subdomains under hazard exposure reflected the key climate change issues and events that occur in the Philippines based on the key hazard exposure events identified by the Climate Change Commission (2017). The vulnerability subdomains were based on the Gender Gap Index (GGI). Developed by the World Economic Forum (WEF) in 2023, this index was designed to measure the current state and evolution of gender parity across four key dimensions: economic participation and opportunity, educational attainment, health and survival, and political empowerment. Meanwhile, the resilience capacity subdomains were adopted from the World Health Organization’s (WHO) health system building blocks (2010), an analytical framework used to describe and assess the process of strengthening health systems.

An indicator-based approach was used to determine the climate risk score and define, map, and prioritize risk factors. A collection of indicators from the most recent national, provincial, and municipal surveys and sources served as measurable variables for each subdomain. For example, the maternal mortality rate is one of the indicators that represent maternal health and access to healthcare in a given population (Ronsmans & Graham, 2006). These indicators were chosen and informed by existing published and grey literature and key-expert consultations with climate and gender specialists (n = 7). Using a data abstraction tool with pre-encoded data, the tool transforms raw indicator data into risk scores according to each domain. The risk scores were then normalized, stratified, and rated in comparison to the risk scores of all other cities and municipalities in the Philippines. The result rates the whole city or municipality and each of their risk dimensions as high, high-medium, medium, medium-low, or low risk, visualizing the risk scores through a risk map for the color-coded identification and prioritization of risk drivers.

The qualitative aspect was designed to further explain the quantitative results. It involved a focus group discussion with women and an activity workbook for girls. The activity book is a child-friendly tool that facilitates the articulation of climate risks and their impact from the perspective of girls, initiating discussions about climate risk and gender equity within the community. These activities aimed to reveal insights about specific climate events and their impact, population-specific vulnerabilities and resilience measures, and recommendations to increase the climate resilience of women and girls.

The scope and study population include assigned females at birth within the range of 10 to 65 years old who were residing in Western Samar and Malabon City at the time of the study. These were purposely chosen to represent a rural municipality and an urban city. The results of the qualitative workshops with participants were analysed using thematic analysis. Then, they were combined with the results of the quantitative assessment to make suggestions that the local government units (LGUs) could follow.

The results

According to the quantitative assessment, the overall climate risk score of Western Samar is medium-low, hazard exposure is high, vulnerability is medium-low, and resilience capacity is high. Discussions with 63 women and girls further revealed vulnerabilities that were not fully captured in the quantitative tool.

The majority of the women and girls reported strong typhoons (86%) and severe flooding (51%), respectively, in the past year (63%). Some women also identified drought (32%), sea level rise (32%), and landslides (32%) as major hazards.

Paranas and Pagsanghan in Western Samar demonstrate medium-low climate vulnerability for women and girls. Initially identified risk factors included women earning less than their husbands, poor nutrition, and low female school attendance. Further investigation revealed additional vulnerabilities, such as the double burden of seeking and pursuing climate-independent livelihoods while doing most of the care work for their families.

Malabon City has a generally low climate risk profile, moderate hazard exposure, medium-low vulnerability, and good resilience, according to the quantitative assessment. Thirty participants were recruited for the subsequent qualitative participatory workshops. Malabon City has a medium risk for recurring threats such as sea level rise (medium-low), severe sea levels (middle-high), and excessive wind. Typhoons were the most frequently cited climate event by the participants (83.9%). Recognizing the city’s historical vulnerability, the LGU has taken measures to improve infrastructure, notably reducing the frequency of catastrophic flooding in recent years.

Despite these risks, Malabon City's resilience indicators were rated as strong, demonstrating the active participation of women in leadership roles in both politics and community-based organizations. The community reported a strong desire to participate in disaster risk reduction and preparedness (57.1%) and a positive acknowledgment of civil society organizations' role (47.1%). They also identified needs for full participation, including a functional help desk and the conduct of awareness campaigns. According to them, reforms are necessary in their local government decision-making processes to make them more inclusive of women's input and opinions.

Partners: Save the Children

A multi-hazard impact-based forecasting and early warning system for the Philippines

The challenge

This project aimed to address the Philippines’ vulnerability to severe weather events, exacerbated by climate change. It proposed a multi-hazard impact-based forecasting and early warning system (MH-IBF-EWS) to enhance preparedness and response. By focusing on the potential impacts of hazards, rather than just forecasts, it aimed to improve understanding and action at both national and local levels.

The idea is for the MH-IBF-EWS to provide timely, meaningful, and actionable warnings, tailored to specific locations and sectors, enhancing the effectiveness of disaster management. The project involved four main outputs:

·       generating science-based multi-hazard weather and risk information,

·       establishing the MH-IBF-EWS,

·       improving national and local capacities for implementation, and

·       mainstreaming climate risk information into policy and planning.

The approach

At the national level, standardized methodologies have been developed, while at the local level, activities have been focused on localising methodologies and developing early action protocols. Capacity development is also a key component, ensuring all stakeholders understand and can utilise the MH-IBF-EWS effectively. The project aims to shift from hazard-based to impact-based forecasting and warning, ultimately increasing resilience to climate-related hazards across all sectors of society.

The results

Despite the challenges, the project achieved notable benefits and results, both quantifiable and qualitative. Quantifiably, the project successfully operationalized 72% of the Automatic Weather Stations (AWSs) across the target areas, with 23 AWSs units installed in the Cagayan River Basin (CRB) alone. The installation of an X-band radar in Cauayan City, Isabela, marked a significant milestone in enhancing the region's weather monitoring capabilities.

Additionally, the project organised several training workshops aimed at building technical capacity among stakeholders. These workshops, attended by 27 participants from nine project teams, focused on improving data collection, analysis, and early warning dissemination processes. Furthermore, comprehensive equipment inventories and tabletop reviews of observation networks were completed, and ongoing field surveys in New Bataan, Davao de Oro, are enhancing landslide forecasting through the installation of slope monitoring equipment and rain gauges. Data collection on hydrological information, including water discharge and water level data for the CRB, has been completed, while hydrographic surveys for the Palo River Basin and CRB are ongoing.

The project also established threshold values for severe wind, probabilistic hazard maps for storm surge, flood, and severe wind, and developed a methodology for probabilistic landslide hazard mapping.

Qualitatively, the project made substantial strides in stakeholder engagement and technical capacity building. Various workshops and stakeholder meetings increased awareness and preparedness among the participants, fostering a better understanding of IBF and EWSs. Notable engagements included a three-day Kick-off and Stakeholder Engagement (KOSE) workshop in four partner Local Government Units (LGUs), involving over 700 participants. Additionally, the project conducted a five-day training course on IBF and EWS for 100 technical personnel in collaboration with the UK Met Office. The project also strengthened collaborations with local and international experts, including the UK Met Office and the University of the Philippines, contributing to the development of robust forecasting tools and methodologies. The project initiated the development of a national policy framework on MH-IBF-EWS, led by DILG, and started the establishment of a Sub-TWG on KDSS to oversee related activities. The baseline gap assessment on MH-IBF-EWS for key national and local end-users and risk perception and adaptive capacity studies are expected to be completed by mid-2024.

Moreover, policy mapping for the development of the Early Action Protocol (EAP) Guidebook and stocktaking of national and local policies related to early action and pre-disaster planning are underway. Efforts to mainstream climate risk information and MH-IBF-EWS into development policy and planning, investment programming, and resilience planning at national and local levels are progressing, with policy mapping and review of protocols led by the Office of Civil Defense (OCD) and Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG). Collaborative efforts with national agencies and organizations, such as refining the draft Bill on the "Declaration of State of Imminent Disaster" and discussions with the START Network and CARE Philippines, underscore the project's comprehensive approach to institutionalizing a people centred MH-IBF-EWS in the Philippines.

Donors & Implementing Partners: Green Climate Fund (GCF), Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), UK Met Office, START Network, CARE Philippines

Success stories

Since 2019, the State of Climate Services reports have presented 113 case studies showcasing successful approaches to leveraging climate services in five key sectors. This year’s analysis highlights key enablers of progress, including regional cooperation, external investments to supplement national budgets, strong user engagement and demand.

Argentina

In Argentina, there has been a number of concrete actions made, such as the increase in the human resources of the National Meteorological Service of Argentina (SMN) teams and the implementation of an institutional strategic plan 2020-2023.

The main drivers that contributed to the progression of climate services in Argentina are frameworks like the NFCS and SMN institutional strategic plans, Improving user -engagement/understanding users’ needs, and External investments.

Barbados

The Barbados Meteorological Services (BMS) is now a department in the Ministry of Home Affairs and Information. Its activities include monitoring and prediction, data processing, weather services, climate services, hydrological services and international activities.

General feedback from the public was that they were impressed with the work that we have been doing in terms of the early warning system,” said BMS Meteorologist, Cherise Brathwaite. Barbados’ example shows us what can be achieved through dedication, user engagement, and a commitment to progress.

Mauritius

Following the devastating impacts of cyclone Belal and tropical storm Candice in January 2024, Mauritius – commendably - worked quickly to galvanize the institutional and monetary force necessary to improve their existing weather, hydrological and climate services.

The technical and financial resources pledged thus far, if used as intended, have the potential to greatly improve climate service capacities in the near future. The Government will start, with support from CREWS in 2024, a NFCS and a strategic plan for Marine Meteorological Services (MMS), which will assist with enhancing service delivery and institutional strengthening.

Seychelles

In Seychelles, climate services were first developed to cater to the needs of sailors and aviation. Today, the nation has expanded this mandate, with wide-reaching meteorological services provided by SMA.

By leveraging regional collaboration and financial acumen, Seychelles is working towards advancing both theirs and their neighbour’s climate services while building self-sufficiency in the advancement of climate services, securing a future for themselves and others which outlives the lifetime of development aid.

The enhancement of climate services in Seychelles has been buoyed by proactive engagement in regional initiatives.

Trinidad and Tobago

Trinidad and Tobago’s progress can first of all be attributed to their effective leadership, which has resulted in increased funding. Following a fellowship in the UK, the TTMS climate section recognized the need for resilience against the effects of climate change in their country. With this newfound awareness and knowledge, they approached the government with a plan for more training and funding.

There is a lot of convergence when you have a lot of conversations from with the people across the Caribbean on what they are using. You know what works well for them, what is not working, and what are some of the issues they face. You know, you're trying to help what you can be done and having a lot of open-source software.

Kaidar Kissoon,Climate Forecaster/Climatologist, Trinidad & Tobago Meteorological Service

We'd like to close with a big thank you to all the contributing partners of this report.

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 Adaptation Fund Agence Française de Développement African Development Bank Asian Development Bank Barbados Meteorological Services Belgian Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology Australia Climate Policy Initiative Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems Deloitte Belgium Department of Meteorology, Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology - Cambodia Department of Meteorology and Hydrology - Lao People's Democratic Republic Environmental Protection Agency, Ireland Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Global Environment Facility Green Climate Fund Group on Earth Observations Global Agricultural Monitoring (GEOGLAM) Inter-American Development Bank Met Éireann - The Irish Meteorological Service Maldives Meteorological Service Mauritius Meteorological Services National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology - Ecuador National Meteorological Service of Argentina Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration Save the Children Seychelles Meteorological Authority Systematic Observations Financing Facility Transport Infrastructure Ireland Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service UK Met Office United Nations Development Programme United Nations Environment Programme United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction University College Cork University of Cambridge World Bank