The North Coast Region

The North Coast is a source region that provides California, the United States, and the world with key benefits including water, biodiversity, and carbon sequestration. The region is home to a diversity of communities that steward this important landscape. Scroll down to learn more about the rich natural resources and communities of this unique region.

The North Coast region is characterized by three distinct climate zones that exhibit different climate attributes. Coastal areas of the North Coast region are characterized by an oceanic climate, with regular precipitation, frequent fog, and little seasonal temperature variation. Inland parts of the region experience a Mediterranean climate with hot summers and cool winters. Further inland, a continental climate prevails, with more pronounced temperature extremes and increased aridity. While these zones describe average climatic conditions across the region, actual precipitation and temperature vary with elevation, slope, orientation, distance from the coast, and fluctuate significantly from year to year.

The North Coast region receives more precipitation than any other region of California and is prone to seasonal flooding. However, average annual rainfall varies drastically by county. Some high-elevation areas of the region receive and store significant precipitation as snow. Coastal fog is additional water source for areas of the region subject to an oceanic climate, particularly during the summer months, and supports a variety of ecosystems including coast redwood forests.

Warmer temperatures: Summer season temperatures are projected to increase on the order of 3–5 °F by mid-century (2040-2069) and 6–9 °F degrees by end-century (2070-2099). Winter season temperatures are expected to increase on the order of 5–7 °F by mid-century and 8–11 °F by end-century.

Decreased precipitation and more variable and intense precipitation events: In this century, all North Coast counties and watershed basins are expected to receive less precipitation than the historical average. A greater proportion of the precipitation is expected to fall in short bursts, increasing flooding potential.

Reduced snowpack: More of the precipitation that does occur will fall as rain rather than as snow, and the snow that does fall will melt sooner, causing snowpack to decline or even disappear entirely at lower elevations. Both geographic extent of snow cover and snow water equivalent are expected to decline significantly by the end of the century.

Increased evapotranspiration and drought stress: Warmer temperatures will increase evapotranspiration rates from plants, soils, and waterbodies. More variable rainfall combined with increased evapotranspiration rates are projected to increase climatic water deficits in soils. Projected water deficits represent an effective loss of 3–6 inches of rainfall equivalent relative to today’s conditions.

For an in-depth analysis of future climate projections and the implications for natural resources management, please see  Climate & Natural Resource Analyses and Planning for the North Coast Resource Partnership .

The North Coast region is characterized by diverse geology, crossing four distinct geomorphic provinces:

• The Coast Ranges consist of northwest trending mountain ranges and valleys associated with the San Andreas fault system. 
• The Klamath and Siskiyou Mountains have rugged topography with an irregular drainage system. 
• The Cascade Mountain Range consists of a narrow chain of volcanic cones to the west of the Shasta Valley. 
• The far eastern portion of the region is part of the Modoc Plateau, a volcanic tableland cut by many north-south trending faults.

The North Coast region contains a number of jurisdictional, administrative, and ownership boundaries including federal, state, regional, county, municipal, Tribal, water district, special district, RCD, RC&D, and LAFCO boundaries. The region contains 34 Tribes, seven RCDs, 25 municipalities, and over 300 water service providers. The entire NCRP region falls within traditional territory of California Tribes, and Tribes continue to maintain regional responsibility of stewardship as their capacity allows.

The vast majority of the region's land is owned by either a private entity (51%) or a federal agency (46%). The state of California, North Coast Tribes, local governments, and non-profit organizations own the remaining land (about 4% total).  View the data here .

The North Coast region comprises a mosaic of varied land cover types, ranging from vast forests and grasslands to smaller areas of urban and agricultural lands. Nearly 70% of the region consists of forests, while grasslands (12%) and shrublands (10%) make up most of the remaining landscape.  View the data here .

Decreased forest cover: Approximately 65% of the region’s natural vegetation is estimated to be prone to climatic stress. This is projected to grow to approximately 85% of the area by the end of the century. Unprecedented future combinations of temperature and rainfall are likely to favor drought-adapted species, such as those found in chaparral and shrublands. As a result, chaparral and shrublands may expand into currently forested areas. 

Increased wildfire risk: Warmer temperatures and drought stress are expected to contribute to an increase in both size and frequency of wildfire; this trend is expected to worsen over time. By the end of the century, the probability of fire over a 30-year period is expected to have increased across the region on average by 40%.

Decreased water supply and availability: As the frequency and intensity of drought in the North Coast region increase with climate change, water supply and availability are likely to decline. Since both surface and groundwater availability are closely tied to precipitation, both are expected to be impacted. In addition, reduced snowpack will deliver less water to many streams during the late spring resulting in increased water availability in the winter and early spring and lower water availability in summer and fall when it is needed most.

Increased conflict between water users: Balancing human water demands while maintaining salmonid habitat has historically been a challenge in the region. This struggle is currently exemplified in the Klamath and Eel River watersheds. Reduced streamflow in the dry months coupled with increased heat events will likely increase conflict between urban, agricultural, industrial, and environmental water uses. Water demand is also projected to increase, exacerbating these issues further.

Degraded water quality: Increased heat and decreased rainfall will likely result in higher water temperatures and lower dissolved oxygen levels. More intense precipitation events are expected to increase surface water contamination from stormwater runoff. Reduced streamflows will likely cause increased pollutant loading in waterways since low flows have a reduced capacity to dilute contaminant concentrations. As fire risk increases, so will the potential for post-wildfire erosion and sediment delivery to streams. Sea level rise will increase the potential for saltwater intrusion in coastal groundwater basins.

More frequent and severe flooding: As more precipitation is delivered by intense storms and as storms drop more of their precipitation as rain rather than snow, flooding potential is expected to increase. Sea level rise will contribute to flooding in some coastal portions of the region, especially when combined with high tides and storm surges. Increased flooding will cause a subsequent increase in erosion, water quality issues from non-point source pollution, and physical and chemical soil changes.

The North Coast region is a documented hotspot for biological diversity, with a wide variety of ecosystems and habitat types. It is home to over 526 plant and animal species including  86 state or federally listed threatened or endangered species  of plants and animals.

In addition to providing habitat for plants and animals, the region’s ecological communities provide corridors for migration, dispersal, and genetic exchange between locations. These undeveloped areas are expected to become extremely important as climate refugia for wildlife to shift their ranges as current ranges become inhospitable due to increased temperature or other factors. The map below shows resilient, biodiverse, and well-connected land in the region

As the human population of the North Coast region has increased, habitat has been fenced off, native vegetation removed, movement corridors interrupted, invasive species introduced, and the ecological function of many systems destroyed or severely impacted. Aquatic habitat, in particular, has been degraded by legacy timber harvest and agricultural practices and residential development, which have accelerated erosion, increased sediment delivery to streams, and reduced natural stream flows. In recent years, industry, intensive agriculture, and cannabis cultivation have further reduced streamflows and contaminated waterways with fertilizers and pesticides. In addition, dams and water diversions have increased salmonid and lamprey mortality and eliminated historically accessible habitat.

Shifts or decline in suitable habitat: Wildlife will be forced to shift their range to find suitable habitat as vegetation communities shift. Some species may no longer have any suitable habitat or may be unable to migrate to the remaining areas of suitable habitat.

Decline of native species, increase in invasive species: Invasive species tend to disperse more effectively and tolerate extreme conditions better than native species, so range shifts and landscape disturbance associated with extreme climate events are likely to favor invasive species while harming natives.

Decline of salmonids: Increased heat, decreased rainfall, and increased frequency and intensity of precipitation events are expected to further impair water quality and threaten the survival of aquatic wildlife. In addition to these stressors, salmonids are threatened by hatchery fish, which can introduce disease and genetic contamination, and variations in ocean productivity, which are unpredictable and uncontrollable.

Natural ecosystems are the result of the interactions of the abiotic and biotic (nonliving and living) components that interact as a unit. These include water and nutrient cycling, streambed and sediment dynamics, flood attenuation, wildfire, habitat connectivity, pollination, and sequestration of atmospheric carbon into soil and plant biomass. When ecological processes are operating normally, they provide critical benefits to stakeholders in the region. These are referred to as ecosystem services. Ecosystem services include water filtration and storage, oxygen production, carbon sequestration, soil improvement, crop pollination and food production, flood control and risk reduction, and outdoor recreation.

The ecosystem services provided by working lands, open spaces, and wilderness have economic value that may be quantified using a variety of tools. The value of working lands and natural ecosystems in the North Coast region is estimated to be between $861 billion and $1.3 trillion, depending on the methodology used. These values demonstrate that investment in natural capital can provide vast long-term benefits if natural and working landscapes are conserved and restored.

Since European colonization and its disruption and degradation of Indigenous land stewardship and subsistence practices, the North Coast region’s economy has been one of resource extraction and agriculture. From the mid-1800’s to 2000, the majority of the region was dependent upon the timber, fisheries, and agriculture industries as primary revenue and employment generators. While these industries have declined over the last twenty years, they remain important economic drivers in the region. Commercial fishing in the Eureka port area alone generated a total catch worth over $38 million in 2019, more than any other port area in California, while timber production in the seven NCRP counties had a market value of over $226 million in 2019. Agriculture and working lands also remain an important part of the North Coast region’s economy and identity. Wine production and, more recently, cannabis cultivation are especially prominent. Sonoma County alone produced over $540 million worth of winegrapes in 2021, and cannabis sales in Sonoma, Mendocino, Humboldt, and Siskiyou counties totaled over $191 million in the same year. Tourism has become a significant contributor to the North Coast region’s economy, with over $2 billion in travel-related spending and more than 31,000 travel-related jobs in the seven NCRP counties in 2021.

Human capital and talent — the social resources of the region — are as important to its future as its natural and built infrastructure. However, recruitment and retention of talent is a challenge for the region due to the lack of wage parity, seasonality of positions, and limited employment opportunities. Identifying, empowering, and tapping into existing social capital is vital to leverage and multiply human potential to continue on a path towards a resilient and viable North Coast region.

Built infrastructure, including transportation, energy, and water infrastructure, is vital to the functioning of the North Coast region's communities and economy. However, given the widespread population and challenging terrain of the region, built infrastructure tends to be costly to build and maintain.

Energy generation and transmission challenges: ​​Extreme weather events and natural disasters can affect energy demand, impact energy production, and disrupt transmission and distribution infrastructure. During periods of extreme heat, fossil fuel-burning power plants, solar panels, and transmission lines lose efficiency. Droughts can limit hydropower generation, while flooding and sea level rise can damage transmission and energy generation infrastructure.

Transportation systems threatened: Climate change impacts pose increasing risks to the region’s transportation infrastructure. Sea level rise, increased flood risk associated with extreme weather events, and subsequent increases in erosion threaten roadways in the region.

Impacts to water and wastewater systems: Climate change poses multiple threats to water systems throughout the region. In coastal areas, sea level rise will increase the potential for salt water intrusion and inundation of low-lying areas containing critical water and wastewater systems. As the water table rises, unlined toxic sites, even those that were previously secured, may contaminate the surrounding area. In high elevation watersheds, such as ones found throughout Trinity County, a decline in snowfall will reduce natural water storage in snowpack, which is vital to maintain consistent water supply in the drier months. Drought, extreme weather, wildfire and associated erosion will continue to threaten the region’s water systems.

Interconnected Impacts: Impacts from climate change are not only broad environmental issues but also pose direct, major threats to the built infrastructure that support community safety, quality of life, and economic sustainability. Built infrastructure is inherently interconnected, such that changes in one sector may create impacts or benefits to other sectors, and many of these changes have climate resilience implications. For example, broadband expansion may reduce impacts on transportation corridors and associated emissions, and may also increase efficiency in managing water supplies, power grids, forecasting flooding, or providing early warning of wildfire. The electrification of heating and transportation may increase dependence on transmission and distribution systems. There is also a strong connection between water supply and conveyance and energy use, with water conveyance accounting for approximately 20% of California's greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore water conservation has substantial climate and energy consequences, in addition to consequences for natural systems. 

For guidance on vulnerabilities of North Coast communities to climate change impacts and recommendations on strategies to adapt, see  North Coast Regional Climate Adaptation Strategies .