Dispelling the Myths of Disaster Risk
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The Myths & Misconceptions of Risk
Every day, NASA's satellites capture thousands of images of Earth’s changing landscapes, bodies of water, and societies. Their unique perspective offers scientists insights into how human actions can prevent – or exacerbate – disaster risk. When combined with airborne and on-the-ground capabilities, this satellite information allows NASA’s Disasters program to help response agencies, humanitarian organizations, researchers, and others learn more about disasters and how we can manage them. But before we can mitigate disasters, we must first understand the conditions that lead to them.
An astronaut looks at Earth from space to see what's happening back home. She could also visit the Disasters Mapping Portal to see Earth's nighttime lights, hurricanes, ocean temperature, and more!
One thing that makes understanding disasters challenging is the misuse of the term “natural disasters,” which implies that people have no influence over disasters. This term leads people to confuse natural hazards , such as earthquakes or volcanoes, with disasters. While natural hazards can play a large role in disaster events, a disaster only occurs when a hazard disrupts a society’s functioning and causes a loss of life or livelihoods for the afflicted community.
It is important to note that not all hazards are natural. Marine oil spills, industrial accidents, and mine collapses are just a few examples of human-induced hazards. And with climate change leading to stronger and more frequent natural hazards, it is becoming increasingly difficult to escape the human influence on disasters. Because of this, it is important to understand the range of actions that people can take to manage disaster impacts.
There is no such thing as a natural disaster, but disasters often follow natural hazards - UNDRR, Prevention Web
For example, people living in an earthquake-prone region may reduce their disaster risk by investing in earthquake-resistant infrastructure and disaster preparedness education. Fortified infrastructure would reduce the risk of economic loss following an earthquake, while an informed population would be able to take steps to prevent personal injury and loss of life. Both actions would create a more prepared, disaster-resilient community.
Furthermore, disasters are rarely the outcome of a single action, but rather the consequence of many decisions made before, during, and after a disaster takes place. Through sharing NASA science and information with at-risk communities, we can help people make the necessary decisions to reduce their disaster risk. Therefore, it is critical to share NASA disaster resources widely with communities around the world.
So long as communities can reduce their disaster risk through informed decision-making, “natural” disasters cannot be entirely natural. The myth of natural disasters is only the first myth to be dispelled. Keep reading to learn about more misconceptions surrounding disaster risk.
A Map of Myths, Misconceptions, and Misbeliefs
The Disasters program includes coordinators, scientists, and other experts from NASA centers across the U.S., but our collaborations, focus, and impact cover the globe.
Myth: "Shallow flood waters aren't very dangerous."
Fact: Even shallow water can pack a powerful current. In fact, according to NOAA, it only takes six inches of moving water to knock down an adult. Flood waters can also infect open wounds, spread toxic chemicals, and carry dangerous debris. Access to flood early warning systems allows people to evacuate high-risk areas before flooding and avoid exposure to hazardous waters.
Myth: “Disasters always occur suddenly and without warning.”
Fact: Disasters occur when a natural hazard meets an exposed and vulnerable group of people. They often result from slow-moving social decisions made long before catastrophes occur. For example, clearing a mangrove forest to make space for buildings can leave coastal communities susceptible to flooding and erosion from storms in the future.
Myth: "Hailstorms are a nuisance, but aren't as destructive as other hazards."
Fact: While hailstorms aren’t responsible for as many casualties as some other natural hazards, they can cause long-lasting economic destruction. Annually, hailstorms are one of the most expensive natural hazards in the world. Hail causes around $10 billion in damages yearly in the U.S. alone – even more than losses for tornadoes or straight-line winds from thunderstorms.
Myth: "My community isn't near a volcano, so I don't need to worry about them."
Fact: Volcanoes can have far-reaching impacts outside of lava flows, including reduced air quality, power outages, global weather changes, and even tsunamis. One lesser-known problem of volcanic eruptions is that the ash can damage plane frames, avionics, and engines, leading to flight delays and cancellations.
Myth: “A tsunami is a single, massive wave that strikes quickly and randomly.”
Fact: A tsunami is a series of waves triggered by landslides, volcanoes, and underwater earthquakes. While these waves are often larger than usual, smaller tsunami waves can still be extremely dangerous for people and property due to their strong currents. Since tsunamis strike communities only minutes after the triggering event, scientists have been working to develop technologies to detect tsunamis and warn people about them as quickly as possible.
Myth: "Earthquakes tend to occur during cloudy, warm, and calm conditions known as earthquake weather."
Fact: According to the USGS, earthquakes have an equal chance of occurring in all types of weather and are generated by geological conditions inside the Earth. The destruction caused by earthquakes depends on our choices of where and how to build. While communities can’t use the weather to predict earthquakes, access to disaster resources, such as satellite imagery, can help decision-makers make better infrastructure choices and quickly respond to and recover from earthquake disasters.
Myth: “Landslides are rare and can’t be predicted.”
Fact: Landslides are common around the globe and are caused by anything that disturbs the natural stability of a slope. This can involve natural processes like heavy rainfall and earthquakes, or human activities such as construction and mining. Unlike other natural hazards, such as hurricanes, landslides can occur anywhere on Earth. According to the World Health Organization, landslides are more widespread than any other geological event, and their frequency is expected to increase with climate change. Therefore, understanding local landslide risk is becoming ever more pertinent in disaster management.
Myth: “NASA is only interested in the natural hazard component of disasters.”
Fact: NASA’s Disasters program looks at how a population’s social and physical vulnerability and hazard exposure influence disaster risk, allowing for a more holistic approach to disaster management. Creating tools to predict natural hazards is useful, but it is not enough to prevent disasters – this is where understanding vulnerability becomes crucial. Vulnerability encompasses the environmental, physical, and socio-economic factors that cause a community to be susceptible to disasters. While a group of people may be fully aware that their region experiences natural hazards, their economic status, surrounding environment, or social standing could interfere with their ability to manage their disaster risk.
Myth: “If a fire doesn’t come near my community, I won’t be affected.”
Fact: While the wildfire itself is hazardous to those within its path, fires can produce many side effects that reach much further than the original burn site, such as poor air and water quality. For example, a fire can happen miles away from a community, but if the fire’s location is near their primary source of drinking water, they can suffer from degraded water quality for years following the event.
Myth: "Disasters are events with clear beginnings and ends.”
Fact: A disaster is the result of human decision-making that precedes a disaster, response efforts during the event, and recovery planning that follows the disaster. In cities, damage to critical infrastructure can result in cascading impacts, such as destroyed roadways that prevent response teams from reaching the areas that need support, or large-scale power outages that leave communities without food, water and communication. These cascading impacts can impede recovery and cripple regional economies long after the natural hazard dissipates.
Myth: "Shallow flood waters aren't very dangerous."
Fact: Even shallow water can pack a powerful current. In fact, according to NOAA , it only takes six inches of moving water to knock down an adult. Flood waters can also infect open wounds, spread toxic chemicals, and carry dangerous debris. Access to flood early warning systems allows people to evacuate high-risk areas before flooding and avoid exposure to hazardous waters.
However, roughly half of the world's countries lack adequate early warning systems, according to the United Nations . NASA is funding multi-institutional collaboration to address this issue with a tool known as “Model of Models” (MoM). MoM combines satellite observations with hydrologic models to provide critical early warnings in regions all over the world that don’t have access to flood warning technology. In 2020, the Disasters program studied flooding in central and eastern Africa to test the capabilities of its flood modeling and alerting system and ensure improved accuracy in the future.
The Pacific Disaster Center ( PDC ) uses MoM to distribute near real-time flood early-warnings for the entire globe through their free DisasterAWARE platform. When MoM detects a high likelihood of flooding in a region, DisasterAWARE sends a flood early warning notification to impacted communities, letting them quickly take the steps necessary to save lives and livelihoods. Local authorities may use this information to activate emergency response plans or order evacuations.
Myth: “Disasters always occur suddenly and without warning.”
Fact: Disasters occur when a natural hazard meets an exposed and vulnerable group of people . They often result from slow-moving social decisions made long before catastrophes occur. For example, clearing a mangrove forest to make space for buildings can leave coastal communities susceptible to flooding and erosion from storms in the future.
While some hazards, such as earthquakes, can strike without warning, adequate preparation can prevent those hazards from turning into disasters. As a result, preparedness is a critical step toward disaster mitigation.
NASA builds relationships and shares resources with communities and disaster management teams well before disasters strike to build local capacity. Last summer, NASA scientists contributed to a forum on disaster resilience for Southern Africa, bringing NASA’s disaster capabilities to regions outside of the United States and informing local organizations of potential hailstorm and flood risk resources. Access to these resources could help community leaders take action to reduce their region’s disaster risk.
Myth: "Hailstorms are a nuisance, but aren't as destructive as other hazards."
Fact: While hailstorms aren’t responsible for as many casualties as some other natural hazards, they can cause long-lasting economic destruction. Annually, hailstorms are one of the most expensive natural hazards in the world. Hail causes around $10 billion in damages yearly in the U.S. alone – even more than losses for tornadoes or straight-line winds from thunderstorms.
However, hailstorm economic risk can be managed through reinsurance, a type of “insurance for insurers.” First, reinsurers need a better understanding of a region’s hailstorm frequency and potential financial impact – as these two factors affect a reinsurance policy’s rates. NASA is using Earth-observing satellite data to develop hailstorm climatology datasets to help the reinsurance industry understand hazard frequency and impact around the world.
Southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Argentina feature some of the most intense thunderstorms on Earth. Recently, NASA has been working with partners in South America to integrate hailstorm climatologies into their reinsurance workflows and to develop satellite-based nowcasting tools that can provide early warning of severe storms to reduce hailstorm risk.
Myth: "My community isn't near a volcano, so I don't need to worry about them."
Fact: Volcanoes can have far-reaching impacts outside of lava flows, including reduced air quality, power outages, global weather changes, and even tsunamis. One lesser-known problem of volcanic eruptions is that the ash can damage plane frames, avionics, and engines, leading to flight delays and cancellations.
This risk is especially perilous at night and at high altitudes, where volcanic ash clouds can go undetected and damage aircraft. Currently, scientists track these clouds using optical ultraviolet-based monitoring of volcanic ash and sulfur dioxide. However, ultraviolet-based monitoring is unavailable at night or under low-light conditions. That’s why NASA is expanding its monitoring capabilities to better serve the flights that operate at night or fly over polar regions. The project uses direct readout real-time satellite observations to inform volcanic ash advisory centers, which issue volcanic ash advisories and forecasts to help air traffic controllers reroute traffic around volcanic clouds.
Myth: “A tsunami is a single, massive wave that strikes quickly and randomly.”
Fact: A tsunami is a series of waves triggered by landslides, volcanoes, and underwater earthquakes. While these waves are often larger than usual, smaller tsunami waves can still be extremely dangerous for people and property due to their strong currents. Since tsunamis strike communities only minutes after the triggering event, scientists have been working to develop technologies to detect tsunamis and warn people about them as quickly as possible.
NASA’s Disasters program is working on a project with NOAA to forecast tsunami risk within as little as five minutes after an earthquake. The project uses Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data to record long-term tectonic motions and strong ground motions from nearby great earthquakes. “[GNSS] can measure tectonic displacement within the first minute, determine the magnitude of the earthquake, and trigger an alert to the region within those critical first five minutes,” explains Project Lead Diego Melgar. The project began in the Cascadia region and is currently deployed at the NOAA Center for Tsunami Research (CTR) and receiving satellite data from over 1,400 sites worldwide.
Myth: "Earthquakes tend to occur during cloudy, warm, and calm conditions known as earthquake weather."
Fact: According to the USGS , earthquakes have an equal chance of occurring in all types of weather and are generated by geological conditions inside the Earth. The destruction caused by earthquakes depends on our choices of where and how to build. While communities can’t use the weather to predict earthquakes, access to disaster resources, such as satellite imagery, can help decision-makers make better infrastructure choices and quickly respond to and recover from earthquake disasters.
NASA’s Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis ( ARIA ) team uses radar and optical remote sensing, GPS, and seismic observations to create maps and tools to understand earthquake impacts. The ARIA team can make maps within a day to several days after the event showing how an earthquake moved the land and what buildings may have been destroyed.
On Feb. 6, 2023, magnitude 7.8 and 7.5 earthquakes shook Türkiye and western Syria. NASA created maps that showed potential damage to structures, as well as displacement maps to show surface movement from the earthquake.These products are freely available on the NASA ARIA Share website, and the Disasters team shared these with the USGS and other stakeholders to help them understand the geological conditions surrounding the earthquakes. So, while NASA may not be able to predict earthquakes based on the weather, we can still help communities manage earthquake risk.
Myth: “Landslides are rare and can’t be predicted.”
Fact: Landslides are common around the globe and are caused by anything that disturbs the natural stability of a slope . This can involve natural processes like heavy rainfall and earthquakes, or human activities such as construction and mining. Unlike other natural hazards, such as hurricanes, landslides can occur anywhere on Earth. According to the World Health Organization , landslides are more widespread than any other geological event, and their frequency is expected to increase with climate change. Therefore, understanding local landslide risk is becoming ever more pertinent in disaster management.
That’s why the NASA-supported landslide team creates tools to map areas prone to landslides by looking at what factors make a region susceptible to these hazards – such as rainfall and land cover. The Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness ( LHASA ) model is one of the team's many tools. LHASA combines information on topography and precipitation with infrastructure and population data to better predict landslide impacts to communities within hours of storms.
In 2020, scientists at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center generated landslide forecast maps for Guatemala after Hurricanes Eta and Iota dropped torrential rains over the region. The researchers overlaid the model with district-level population data so they could better assess the proximity between potential hazards and densely populated communities. The products were provided to institutions working on emergency response and recovery in the area so they could better understand local landslide risk.
Myth: “NASA is only interested in the natural hazard component of disasters.”
Fact: NASA’s Disasters program looks at how a population’s social and physical vulnerability and hazard exposure influence disaster risk, allowing for a more holistic approach to disaster management. Creating tools to predict natural hazards is useful, but it is not enough to prevent disasters – this is where understanding vulnerability becomes crucial. Vulnerability encompasses the environmental, physical, and socio-economic factors that cause a community to be susceptible to disasters. While a group of people may be fully aware that their region experiences natural hazards, their economic status, surrounding environment, or social standing could interfere with their ability to manage their disaster risk.
For example, almost a million Rohingya are living in refugee camps in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh, to escape violence and systemic discrimination from their home country of Myanmar. Their status as refugees combined with their young age - as almost 60 percent of them are children - already made them an extremely vulnerable population. However, local environmental issues left them even more vulnerable to disasters.
When the Rohingya refugee camps were built into the hilly countryside, plants and trees were removed to make space for tents. Without the plants, there were less roots to hold the soil in place during the rainy season. This combination of monsoons, hilly terrain, socio-economic vulnerability, and environmental degradation culminated in a high-risk situation for flash flooding and landslides.
In 2019, NASA worked with Rohingya camp managers and other local officials to incorporate satellite observations into their decision making. Now, they can access maps and near real-time NASA data on land use, rainfall, and elevation. Working with partner organizations and local decision-makers allowed the Disasters program to help inform community leaders on where to build future refugee camps, reducing their landslide and flash flood risk.
Myth: “If a fire doesn’t come near my community, I won’t be affected.”
Fact: While the wildfire itself is hazardous to those within its path, fires can produce many side effects that reach much further than the original burn site, such as poor air and water quality . For example, a fire can happen miles away from a community, but if the fire’s location is near their primary source of drinking water, they can suffer from degraded water quality for years following the event.
“I’ve experienced a fire that is 30 miles away, but the air quality was so poor, you couldn’t be outside for more than about 30 seconds before feeling absolutely sick and dizzy,” says Kyle Hilburn, Principal Investigator for NASA’s “ Coupled Interactive Forecasting of Weather, Fire Behavior, and Smoke Impact for Improved Wildland Fire Decision Making ” project. Reduced air quality from fires can be devastating for community members working outdoors. Construction workers, farmers, and many others may be forced to choose between their health and livelihoods, even if a burn site is miles away from their workplaces.
In late 2019 and early 2020, Australia had a record-breaking bushfire season, burning 46 million acres and killing 34 people . Smoke from the fires exposed over 400,000 people to poor air quality for several months, leading to the season becoming known as Australia’s “Black Summer.”
The sheer magnitude of the event led to pyrocumulus clouds over Australia and New Zealand. These fire-induced clouds form when intense heat causes air to rise rapidly into the atmosphere, can transport smoke far away from their original locations and have lasting impacts on Earth’s climate and atmosphere. Significant amounts of smoke landing on glaciers in New Zealand can affect the reflective properties of the snow and lead to increased melting of snow and glaciers.
Myth: "Disasters are events with clear beginnings and ends.”
Fact: A disaster is the result of human decision-making that precedes a disaster, response efforts during the event, and recovery planning that follows the disaster. In cities, damage to critical infrastructure can result in cascading impacts, such as destroyed roadways that prevent response teams from reaching the areas that need support, or large-scale power outages that leave communities without food, water and communication. These cascading impacts can impede recovery and cripple regional economies long after the natural hazard dissipates.
In many cases, the locations of this critical infrastructure need to be mapped or shared. Without the location of key assets, it is difficult to identify where regional risk from infrastructure disruption could lead to cascading impacts. NASA is using Earth observing satellite data to model the potential impacts of disruption to critical assets and better understand key infrastructure’s role in disasters.
Government organizations can use this information to manage funding for disaster mitigation, and city planners can prioritize building in areas that are safer from catastrophic economic impacts. Reinsurance brokers looking to understand their exposure to climate change can also benefit from a more comprehensive understanding of critical infrastructure. In all of these cases, the decisions taken before an event can help contribute to economic resilience post-event. The project team began its work in India and is expanding to new countries globally.
A Portal to Understand Risk
The Disasters Mapping Portal combines cutting-edge Earth data products with information on vulnerability and exposure to provide an integrated view of how disasters impact communities. When disaster strikes, disaster management teams can visit the portal to get critical info that can help them make informed decisions, such as ocean surface temperature, soil moisture, potential damage to infrastructure, and more. The portal also hosts experimental disaster risk data products developed by NASA Applied Science researchers.
Click on the mapping portal to see how NASA's disaster tools and resources can help you!
To Be Continued...
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