The Nexus of Opportunity

Unlocking the potential of social forestry in climate change mitigation in ASEAN through mapping priority investment areas

From the fertile fields of Cambodia to the dense rainforests of Indonesia and Lao PDR, Southeast Asia's agricultural lands and forest resources are of social and ecological significance to the region.

Home to over 300 million rural inhabitants, as many as  140 million people  rely on forests for their livelihoods, nutrition, and essential food security needs. And as Southeast Asia grapples with the effects of climate change, integrating social forestry initiatives becomes vital.

Why investing in social forestry initiatives matter

Social forestry initiatives play a pivotal role in climate change mitigation by cultivating community involvement in sustainable land management practices.

Investing and engaging local communities in forest restoration and conservation enhances carbon sequestration and promotes biodiversity, soil health, and water conservation. Social forestry also stimulates socioeconomic growth by creating jobs, improving livelihoods, and enhancing community resilience.

Drastically reducing deforestation and systematically restoring forests and other ecosystems is the single largest nature-based opportunity for climate mitigation.

António Guterres | UN Secretary - General

But despite the efforts undertaken by member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), persistent challenges stemming from slow policy implementation and data limitations impede a comprehensive understanding of the role of social forestry in climate action.

Leveraging technology to make informed investment decisions

 UNEP , as part of the  UN-REDD  Technical Assistance Initiative ‘Climate change mitigation through social forestry actions in ASEAN countries’ funded by the Swiss Government, aims to promote and accelerate responsible investment in social forestry. Partnering with  RECOFTC , we utilised thorough data analysis combined with innovative methods to lay the groundwork for strategic investments in social forestry. 

To identify the optimal areas for investment in sustainable timber social forestry enterprises in Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Indonesia, UNEP and RECOFTC (see Report on Investment Priority Mapping, 2024) employed four primary criteria:

To further strengthen the analysis, the team also employed two innovative methods:

1. SF modelling

By compiling several datasets, the study utilised machine learning techniques to generate spatial data layers representing the likelihood of current and future social forestry areas in Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Indonesia.

The countries involved had varying levels of social forestry data availability. To bridge this gap, the study adopted a transfer learning approach, combining information from one country with established data to global data, creating a model that works for all three countries.

Specific thresholds were established to improve investment decision-making further based on the likelihood of social forestry establishment, aligning with government goals and considering environmental restrictions.

The image above shows the relative likelihood of social forestry management/governance arrangements in Lao PDR (upper left panel), Cambodia (upper right panel), and Indonesia (lower panel).


2. SE.PLAN

The study customised SE.PLAN's standard model structure to include current and likely future social forestry areas not adequately represented in available data. Using a predictive model based on available spatial data on social forest areas, biogeophysical aspects, market infrastructure proximity, and accessibility to market intermediaries, we identified investment-worthy areas within the social forestry landscape, extending se.plan's standard output.

Insights and findings

The analysis reveals promising areas for investment into the focal commodity species and associated value chains in a social forestry context.

Intersection of priority areas of four focal commodity species in Cambodia.

Cambodia

The analysis in Cambodia reveals significant potential investment opportunities north of the Cardamom Mountains, areas north of the Tonle Sap, and in Ratanakiri province. These regions exhibit favorable conditions for social forestry-related forest enterprise investment, particularly for the commodity species considered.


Intersection of priority areas of two focal commodity species in Indonesia.

Indonesia

The analysis in Indonesia reveals the distinct sensitivity of certain species, such as Tectona grandis, to slopes, impacting their suitability compared to other species. Despite this variation, factors like forest proximity to communities, elevation, and forest fragmentation consistently influence suitability across the country. Areas with lower slope gradients are more suitable for investment in forest commodity enterprises, emphasising the importance of considering species-specific requirements in investment decisions.


Intersection of priority areas of two focal commodity species in Lao PDR.

Lao PDR

In Lao PDR, suitability for investment in forest commodity enterprises is characterised by shared suitability across species, primarily influenced by topographical features. The most influential factors shaping suitability include forest proximity to communities, elevation, and aspect. Areas, where communities are within 5km of forests and have elevation ranges preferred by the selected species, are particularly suitable for investment.


Conclusion

These findings underscore the significance of strategic investment in social forestry initiatives, which offer avenues for economic gains, ecosystem conservation, and improved climate resilience.

By prioritising investment areas and aligning policies with sustainable land use practices, ASEAN countries can enact meaningful change and build a future that benefits both people and forests.

To save our forests, we must invest in our forests.

The image above shows the relative likelihood of social forestry management/governance arrangements in Lao PDR (upper left panel), Cambodia (upper right panel), and Indonesia (lower panel).

Intersection of priority areas of four focal commodity species in Cambodia.

Intersection of priority areas of two focal commodity species in Indonesia.

Intersection of priority areas of two focal commodity species in Lao PDR.