Hurricane Lorenzo (2019)

In the fall of 2019,  Lorenzo was a powerful hurricane  in the eastern Atlantic. Hurricane Lorenzo generated long period swells that traversed the Atlantic to impact the U.S. East Coast, despite the storm remaining roughly 1,700 nautical miles away. These swells contributed to dangerous surf conditions and a deadly rip current outbreak that led to eight drownings between September 30th and October 3rd from Florida to Rhode Island. Four of these drownings occurred in North Carolina. The impact from Hurricane Lorenzo led to increased messaging efforts during potential rip current outbreaks as well as product enhancements to improve Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS).

Between September 26th and September 30th, Hurricane Lorenzo was a category 2 or stronger hurricane and was either moving directly toward the U.S. (west-northwestward) or moving slowly across the eastern Atlantic. As a result, the storm generated impressive long period swells that traversed the Atlantic and reached the U.S. East Coast roughly three to four days later. Offshore buoys recorded 3-4 feet swells at a period of 13-16 seconds between September 30th and October 4th. While 3 feet might not sound dangerous, 3 feet at 15 seconds is. Low wave height, high period swell events are especially dangerous along the coast, as there are likely to be lulls in the sets that make the surf look more appealing to beachgoers at times.

The long period swells from Hurricane Lorenzo led to a deadly rip current outbreak along the U.S. East Coast, with strong rip currents and hazardous surf conditions reported along a large section of the coastline. Eight lives were lost in total, six of which were rip current related, between September 30th and October 3rd from Florida to Rhode Island. Despite never getting closer than 1,700 nautical miles from the East Coast, Lorenzo was responsible for more surf fatalities than any other tropical cyclone since Hurricane Gabrielle in 1989 (which also led to eight drownings along the northeast U.S. coast).

At the same time as the swells from Hurricane Lorenzo arrived at the coastline, anomalously warm weather due to a high pressure ridge and above normal water temperatures were occurring along the East Coast. The combination of warm air and ocean temperatures created pristine late season beach weather conditions, which combined with the public likely having a false sense of security given Lorenzo's far distance from the coast.

The Surf Zone Forecasts issued by National Weather Service (NWS) offices along the East Coast were highlighting a High Rip Current Risk between September 30th and October 3rd due to the arrival of Lorenzo's swells. During the rip current outbreak in North Carolina, including the day of the two fatalities in Kure Beach, NC, the Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) Rip Current Probabilistic Model was predicting a 70-90% chance of hazardous rip current occurring. Hazardous surf conditions and dangerous swells were also messaged on multiple NWS social media platforms and within National Hurricane Center Public Advisories for Lorenzo. Several national news outlets, such as  CNN  and  The Weather Channel , and multiple local and regional media partners highlighted the surf hazard from Hurricane Lorenzo. Despite the accurate forecasting, messaging, and media attention, there were still eight drownings within four days.

The impact from Hurricane Lorenzo led to increased efforts within the NWS to improve messaging for rip current outbreaks (especially those created by distant hurricanes), increase rip current education efforts, and work to mitigate future events with coastal and inland partners. In the years since Lorenzo, NWS Wilmington, NC, along with NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC, has ramped up messaging with partners and the public when a distant tropical cyclone is forecasted to produce dangerous surf conditions at local beaches. This includes creating dedicated one-page briefings, which are provided to partners and placed on the public webpage, and increased messaging on social media platforms. There have also been several NWS product enhancements in the years since Hurricane Lorenzo which help improve IDSS during potential rip current outbreaks, including the  marine forecast with wave detail  and an  experimental surf forecast matrix . For the future, the hope is that rip current outbreaks, especially from distant storms, are treated similar to other well-broadcasted weather threats, such as severe weather outbreaks, to help protect the public as best as possible and work to reduce the number of surf fatalities.

One of the best ways to keep yourself and your loved ones safe when going to the beach is checking the beach forecast before going out. Coastal NWS offices issue Surf Zone Forecasts (SRF) during local beach seasons to give a heads up of potential hazards people may encounter at the beach. This includes a rip current risk, breaking wave heights, and other hazards such as shorebreak and longshore currents. Visit  www.weather.gov/beach  to view the beach forecast for your area of interest.