by: Jordan Baker

La Niña Makes a Comeback

La Niña is a part of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle and is a natural ocean-atmospheric phenomena marked by the cooler-than-average sea surface temperature across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This will be the second year in a row in which La Niña conditions have developed. La Niña, as part of the ENSO cycle, is one of the most important climate phenomena due to its ability to change global atmospheric circulations. These circulations affect temperature and precipitation around the globe. La Niña is expected to last through early spring of 2022.

Temperature

Precipitation

Drought

With drier-than-normal conditions forecast, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) shows the potential for drought conditions to develop across portions of eastern SC and eastern NC.

Winter Safety

Stay off the roads during hazardous winter weather whenever possible. If you absolutely have to venture out, be sure to have emergency supplies in your vehicle, and that your mobile phone is fully charged -- it could become your lifeline if disaster should strike.

Checklist for Your Home

• Your primary concerns at home or work during a winter storm are loss of heat, power and telephone service and a shortage of supplies if storm conditions continue for more than a day. In either place, you should have available:
• Flashlight and extra batteries
• Battery-powered NOAA Weather Radio and portable radio to receive emergency information
• Extra food and water such as dried fruit, nuts, granola bars and other food requiring no cooking or refrigeration.
• Extra prescription medicine
• Baby items such as diapers and formula
• First-aid supplies
• Heating fuel: refuel before you are empty; fuel carriers may not reach you for days after a winter storm
• Emergency heat source: fireplace, wood stove or space heater properly ventilated to prevent a fire
• Fire extinguisher, smoke alarm; test smoke alarms monthly to ensure they work properly
• Extra pet food and warm shelter for pets
•  Review generator safety:  Never run a generator in an enclosed space
• Make sure your carbon monoxide detector is working correctly and that the outside vent is clear of leaves and debris. During or after the storm, make sure it is cleared of snow.
•  Home fires  are common each winter when trying to stay warm. Review ways to keep your home and loved ones safe

by: Vicky Oliva

Your one-stop shop for winter weather information for northeast South Carolina and southeast North Carolina:  www.weather.gov/ilm/winter . This webpage includes information on current hazards, winter precipitation forecast, climatology, and winter safety. Here’s a look at how to interpret the probabilistic snowfall forecasts.

Probabilistic Snowfall Forecasts

The NWS Probabilistic Snowfall experiment uses the official NWS snow forecast along with output from Weather Prediction Center’s model ensemble to provide the public and partners a range of snowfall possibilities, as well as better communicate forecast uncertainties.

Snowfall Totals by Location

These tables show the snowfall forecast for individual locations across northeast SC and southeast NC. They show the same forecast information as the other probabilistic graphics, but in a different format. The default list contains the most popular cities in our area, while drop down allows you to view additional locations within each state or county.

by: Tim Armstrong

Soil's Influence on Low Temperatures

When the sun sets, air temperatures drop by a process called radiational cooling. This is when the day’s accumulated heat streams out into space through invisible infrared radiation. But how much the air temperature ultimately falls depends on many factors including wind speed, proximity to water, the height and thickness of any clouds, and even soil type.

How Can Soil Type Influence your Nighttime Low Temperature?

Since there is no sunlight at night, the temperature of the soil’s surface falls as its heat radiates into the cold of space.  The air in contact with the soil slowly cools down too.  But how cold the soil’s surface (and the air above it) becomes depends, among other things, on how quickly heat stored down within the earth can conduct its way up to the soil surface, replacing heat lost to space.

Sand and mineral-rich soils conduct heat relatively quickly to the surface. This limits how cold the soil’s surface becomes overnight and keeps air temperatures from dropping too quickly. But other soils that consist largely of organic matter (like peat) don’t conduct heat so well. For these soil types, heat can’t flow quickly upward through the soil. The soil’s surface becomes colder and colder as its heat radiates away into space. This very cold soil surface then superchills the air touching it, creating a cold microclimate.

How Much Difference Can Soil Temperature Make in Nighttime Low Temperatures?

A lot.

Between 2006 and 2010, the weather station in the Holly Shelter Gameland recorded low temperatures averaging 8 degrees colder than in Wilmington, and recorded 58 additional nights per year with freezing temperatures.  Both Holly Shelter Gameland and Wilmington are approximately the same distance inland from the ocean, so these differences were due primarily to the effects of the peat soil found in Holly Shelter Gameland.

In 2011, a wildfire burned through 31,000 acres of Holly Shelter Gameland.  Severe drought gripped all of eastern North Carolina that summer and the dried peat soil ignited and burned away.

In 2012, the year after the fire, the average low temperature difference between Holly Shelter and Wilmington dropped from 8 to only 4 degrees.  Relative to pre-fire conditions, the number of nights with freezing temperatures in Holly Shelter Gameland fell by 40 percent.  This is because after the fire there was less peat soil remaining, reducing the cold microclimate which existed earlier.

Meteorologists at the National Weather Service can identify nights when radiational cooling will occur and create temperature forecasts that incorporate the microclimate effects produced by soil type. These point-specific temperature forecasts are available online at  weather.gov/ilm .

by: Victoria Oliva

The National Weather Service’s Frost/Freeze Program consists of issuing Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings when cold temperatures threaten tender vegetation and crops during the climatological growing season. Advisories and warnings are issued to give the public a heads up to protect sensitive plants from potential cold damage, as well as outdoor plumbing. On average, the local growing season for Northeast SC and Southeast NC is between March 21st and November 15th. In the fall, frost and freeze products are issued for a county as needed until either freezing temperatures are observed across most of the county or December 1st, whichever occurs first.

Some protective measures against frost damage may include:

• Bring plants inside or under some sort of cover.
• Covering your plants with a light weight fabric.
• Water the soil thoroughly BEFORE as wet soils retain heat better.
• Heaters or smudge pots.
• Wind machines - to mix the air so the average temperature near the ground is raised.

Want to learn more about local climatology for freezing temperatures across Northeast South Carolina and Southeast North Carolina? Visit  www.weather.gov/ilm/freeze . Here you will find average dates of the first spring freeze, last fall freeze, and length of growing season for many local cities. Each city also has a local climatology page (such as  www.weather.gov/ilm/freezeWilmington ) which includes statistics for historic freeze dates and trends since observations began. Since 1950, the average length of the local growing season is increasing at a rate of 3.3 days per decade.

by: Terry Lebo

National Weather Service Incident Meteorologists (IMETs) are typically sent to remote locations in support of wildfires as well as other  incidents which can potentially involve environmental hazards. During wildfire season, or when other incidents require localized weather information, IMETs can in a moment's notice, pack their bags, and quickly deploy to an incident command site. Once onsite, IMETs are key members of the incident command teams and provide continuous meteorological support for the duration of the incident. IMETs help fire control specialists from federal, state and local agencies by interpreting weather information, assessing its impact on the fire, and helping develop strategies to best fight the fires, while keeping both fire fighters and the general public safe.

June 14, 2021

Dispatched to the Rincon Fire outside of Mora, New Mexico. Small fire, 500 acres from a lightning strike but had potential to grow larger given historic drought in New Mexico at the time. Minimal fire activity combined with a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms kept the fire in its original 500 acre footprint.

June 19, 2021

Reassigned to the Backbone Fire near Camp Verde, Arizona. Another fire started by lightning. 17,126 acres when I arrived with triple digit heat and single digit humidity. Monsoon moisture started to spread north over Arizona the 3rd full week of June. The arrival of rainfall from showers and thunderstorms began easing the drought and allowed crews to gain control of the Backbone Fire by the end of June. Returned to Wilmington July 1, 2021.

August 3, 2021

Dispatched to Morgan Creek Fire near Steamboat Springs, Colorado. Another fire started by lightning. The fire was about 7,500 acres when I arrived. Fire was in steep, mostly inaccessible terrain with limited control options. Storms affected the fire on several different days with intense lightning, outflow winds in excess of 40 mph, hail and heavy rain. Rainfall of 0.50” to 1.00” was measured across the fire on a couple different days, but each rain event was followed by strong drying and breezy conditions. Despite several rounds of decent rainfall, the fire showed an increase in activity during the intermittent dry and breezy periods. Although the fire was active, it remained within the perimeter only increasing by about 10 acres from August 3 through August 15.

August 15, 2021

Reassigned to Fox Complex near Lake View, Oregon. Fox Complex consisted of 2 fires, the Patton Meadow Fire (around 6,000 acres) and the WIllow Valley Fire (around 800 acres) when I arrived. Both fires were started by dry lightning (thunderstorms with no rainfall). Historic drought in southeastern Oregon created conditions conducive to extreme fire behavior. Although no rain fell in the area from mid to late August, a significant pattern change occurred. The result was temperatures below normal, increased afternoon humidity and winds that were mostly favorable, allowing firefighters to gain control of the Patton Meadow Fire the last week of August. Returned to Wilmington August 26, 2021.

September 9, 2021

Dispatched to River Complex near Etna, California. The River Complex consisted of the Summer/Haypress Fire (159,045 acres) and the Cronan Fire (5,940 acres) when I arrived. Active weather affected northern California during September with several cold fronts moving through the area. Rainfall ranging from under 0.10” to around 1.00” was reported with each front. Prior to the passage of each front, warm temperatures, single digit humidity, and gusty winds were recorded in the area. These conditions were favorable for active fire behavior and there were several days when the Summer/Haypress Fire showed increased activity with structures threatened at times. The highest rainfall amounts were reported across the Cronan Fire which showed very little activity after mid-September. In late September cooler temperatures and elevated humidity arrived in northern California, significantly decreasing Summer/Haypress fire activity. A replacement IMET arrived on September 30th and I returned to Wilmington October 3, 2021.

Season Totals

• Total days traveling to or at fires in 2021 = 67 days
• Total miles traveled to and from fires (flying and driving) = 15,138 miles (that's from Wilmington, NC to Fiji and back!)

by: Victoria Oliva

A number of employees from NWS Wilmington were recently recognized in one of the most prestigious awards our agency has to offer: The National Isaac M. Cline Award. The 2020 National Cline Award for Leadership was awarded to NWS Wilmington’s Victoria Oliva, Matt Scalora, Mike Kochasic (now at WFO Louisville, KY), Steve Pfaff, Carl Morgan, and Mark Willis, along with a number of employees from NWS Newport/Morehead City and NWS Eastern Region HQ.

The award was for extraordinary outreach, science, and service efforts related to mitigating the number one weather related killer in the Coastal Carolinas: rip currents. During fall 2019, shortly after distant Hurricane Lorenzo led to eight surf-related deaths on the East Coast (including four in the Carolinas), leadership at WFOs Wilmington and Morehead City came together and collectively determined that both WFOs needed to continue to enhance science, outreach, and operational efforts to improve on the unfortunate, deadly statistics associated with rip currents.

One achievement in 2020 recognized by the award was the addition of wave detail to an experimental version of the Coastal Waters Forecast by both offices (currently available at  www.weather.gov/ilm/ProposedCWF  and  www.weather.gov/mhx/ProposedCWF ). This effort improved awareness of the fundamental characteristics of the sea state, as well as an increased understanding of wave events that may enhance the risk of life-threatening rip currents. WFOs ILM and MHX also teamed up in spring 2020 to facilitate a Beach Hazard Workshop with NWS partners, including emergency managers, academia, media, and ocean rescue. This workshop helped to identify ways to improve both the forecasting and messaging of beach hazards, as well as strengthen partner relationships. Several public rip current webinars were also held in 2020 to further educate people about the hazard.

by: Ian Boatman

On behalf of NWS Wilmington, NC, we would like to extend our sincere gratitude to Sharron Y. Long and the Long family of Longwood, NC. Sharron and family will be receiving the Family Heritage Award, in recognition of their contributions to the COOP program for providing 50 years worth of weather observations, starting in 1971. Being only 9 miles inland from the coast, the Longwood, NC station serves as an important datapoint during hurricane season, especially since the Cape Fear region averages a hurricane every six years. Sharron’s observations proved very helpful for many tropical events over the last five decades, including Hurricanes Floyd, Matthew, Florence, and Dorian. Additionally, the Longwood, NC station’s proximity to the coast has been highly useful regarding rainfall from thunderstorms along the highly active seabreeze front. While snow is rather rare in this part of the Carolinas, Sharron’s station also provides NWS Wilmington, NC with critical snowfall amounts in a highly data sparse area. Again, we are very proud of the Long family for their contributions to the Cooperative Observer Program. Your data are making a difference on a daily basis! THANK YOU!

A digital copy of the Family Heritage Award that Sharron Y. Long and the Long Family of Longwood, NC. To learn more about the NWS Cooperative Observer Program (COOP),  click here .

A huge thank you from all the staff members here at the National Weather Service in Wilmington, NC.

by: Ian Boatman & Jordan Baker

Where did you go to school, and how has your career path led you to the National Weather Service in Wilmington, NC?

I went to school at North Carolina State University for my Bachelor’s and Master’s degree. NC State was a great school for meteorology because it is one of a few schools around the country that have a National Weather Service (NWS) office on campus. It was also one of the best environments in college basketball for a junkie like myself; Go Pack!

I had been visiting the Raleigh NWS office in my senior year of high school while doing an end-of-year project. I got to meet a lot of the staff there and was able to continue that through my undergraduate career. During my senior year of college, I attended a semester-long student volunteer program and learned the ins-and-outs of life in the National Weather Service. This really opened my eyes into why being in the National Weather Service was the right move for me. While we are on the front lines of weather messaging to emergency managers and state/local officials, we also have the ability to explore our weather-related interests and progress the science. It was the perfect mix of public service, passion for weather research, and hands-on application of said research. After that semester, I continued to stay in contact with the folks in that office and did a little bit of volunteer work over the summer. This experience ended up being one of the deciding factors in being hired here at NWS Wilmington.

How did you become interested in weather?

My interest developed in a very different way than most meteorologists and for the sake of this newsletter may not be the most entertaining. When I was younger, I had always wanted to be an architect that designed homes and tall skyscrapers. I loved creating things and I loved math even more. Through school and books on designing buildings, I learned that you can use equations to fit any design in the universe, including the environment around us. I remember reading books about this and eventually found a book at a yard sale called “Compendium of Meteorology.” This book had over 1,000 pages of explanations and equations about the atmosphere around us. I could finally describe a cloud in terms of numbers and variables, yay! While this was amazing to me, I continued to read about this because of the unknowns. Not every equation worked, in fact, some required the equation to fail for something else to work. It was (and is) a delicate balance of fleeting equilibrium and restoration.

What is your current role at NWS Wilmington, NC?

I’m currently a general forecaster at NWS Wilmington. I am also in charge of our aviation program and fire weather program locally. I get the opportunity to forecast everyday, but one of my favorite parts of the job is radar operation. During severe weather, someone from your local National Weather Service is constantly monitoring weather radar. It’s a very challenging part of the job, but equally as rewarding. We also get to pursue other projects outside of weather forecasting that I really enjoy because we have the freedom to concentrate on what we have a passion for.

What is your favorite type of weather?

Well, despite living here and living in eastern NC my whole life, I despise heat and humidity. My favorite weather is cold and above all others: snow. A quiet and peaceful snowfall is some of the best weather you can have. I also love the cold rain and overcast skies that we typically get with cold air damming setups in the spring and fall. Most people don’t like to get outside in this weather, but my dad and I used to go fishing in the cold and rain and the fish loved it! The rumble from a summertime thunderstorm is also near the top of my list.

What is the most memorable weather event you've experienced?

For Christmas Eve of 2010, I was constantly checking computer models on my phone between family get-togethers because of a major snowstorm that was developing just offshore. I went to bed on Christmas Eve with a forecast of 2-4 inches of snow for our area, starting on Christmas evening. I woke up the next morning and the forecast had increased to 8-12 inches! It was the best Christmas present I had ever received. Not only was it the biggest snowstorm I had ever experienced, it was my first (so far, only) White Christmas. The flakes started falling at 11:50pm on Christmas night and didn’t stop until 24 hours later. We ended up with 11 inches of snow in my hometown of Dunn, NC ( NWS Raleigh has a great event summary on their website ). It was my favorite weather event by far!

What do you do in your spare time?

I like being outside and taking a hike and enjoying the quiet of nature by myself. The NC mountains are my favorite place to go because of the challenging terrain and beautiful landscapes. When I can’t do that, I will spend time watching sports; mainly NASCAR, college basketball, and anything NC State. When all else fails, I like to create mods and game assets for some of my favorite video games. It's always fun to learn a new programming software and tailor an experience for yourself.

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• Tim Armstrong
• Jordan Baker (Editor)
• Ian Boatman (Editor)
• Terry Lebo
• Victoria Oliva (Editor)