Climate Vulnerability of West Virginia's Watersheds
How crayfish, fish, and their habitats depict important conservation areas and what this means for the people of West Virginia
In 2021, researchers at West Virginia University began investigating climate change vulnerability of aquatic species and their habitats.
The result was the creation of the Species and Habitat-based Ecological Decision Support tool (wtrSHEDS).
This story map outlines the research goals and framework, and compliments the 2024 Ecological Indicators publication.
What is Climate Vulnerability?
The concept of climate change vulnerability can be used to help understand how strongly natural and human systems will be affected by the changes in climate.
Climate Vulnerability is a function of three parts:
Exposure- Tells us the degree that systems will be exposed to changes or variations in the climate e.g., How much temperature change will WV experience?
Sensitivity - Tells us the degree that systems will be affected and generally determined by characteristics of that system e.g., Fish that are intolerant, or sensitive, to higher water temperatures may be more vulnerable to climate changes.
Adaptive Capacity- Tells us how a system is going to adjust to climate changes or variability by maintaining its original state or finding a new equilibrium e.g., A temperature intolerant fish may disperse to a new, more suitable location.
Why Research Watersheds?
Watersheds are geologic landforms that 'shed' precipitation into streams
These streams come together to make large drainage networks
And support important species and their habitats
Here in West Virginia, we have 32 major watersheds.
These watersheds are important units of conservation and form the basis of WV's 'Conservation Focus Areas.'
But changes in temperature and rainfall are expected to affect natural hydrological patterns, making the persistence of aquatic species uncertain.
By looking at climate vulnerability at the watershed scale, we can begin to understand where conservation efforts should be prioritized.
Our project goals were to...
Evaluating Climate Vulnerability
The vulnerability of watersheds is composed of:
- Species vulnerability to climate change and the vulnerability of a watershed's collection of species (assemblage vulnerability).
- Habitat Vulnerability derived from an established vulnerability index developed by Northeastern Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (NEAFWA) combined with;
- The FOREcasting SCEnarios of Land-use Change (FORE-SCE) model i.e., a projection of future land cover changes.
Species Vulnerability
Species vulnerability assessments were completed using NatureServe's Climate Change Vulnerability Index tool ( https://www.natureserve.org/ccvi-species ).
Species assessments suggest that most aquatic species within West Virginia are likely to experience some stress due to climate change exposure and the intrinsic traits that make them more susceptible and less likely to adapt to the changes.
Assemblage Vulnerability
Species vulnerabilities were then aggregated at the watershed scale (assemblage) to derive a single score for each watershed.
The Upper Ohio North had the least vulnerable aquatic assemblage while the Little Kanawha had the most vulnerable assemblage.
Habitat Vulnerability
We combined the NEAFWA habitat vulnerability index with an index that we created from future landcover projection (FORE-SCE).
The Potomac drains in the Eastern panhandle had the highest habitat vulnerability and the Upper Ohio South had the lowest vulnerability.
wtrSHEDS Index
Lastly, we combined the Assemblage Vulnerability and Habitat Vulnerability to derive one score for each watershed that reflects both species and habitat vulnerability.
When we combined the assemblage and habitat indices, we found that the Middle Ohio South, Lower Kanawha, and Upper Kanawha had the highest vulnerabilities. The James and the Upper Ohio South had the lowest vulnerabilities.
The insights from the wtrSHEDS are pivotal for prioritizing conservation efforts and developing adaptive management strategies tailored to enhance the resilience of the most vulnerable watersheds.
Essential conservation areas for climate change exist within the Upper Kanawha watershed and, in general, the western region of the state, underscoring these regions as critical for implementing conservation strategies to bolster climate resilience.
We believe that watersheds with highly vulnerable assemblages may be less resilient to climate changes. Essentially, these areas might struggle more with maintaining ecological balance and biodiversity under the pressures of climate shifts.
Conclusions
- Now and soon, conservation managers are tasked with mediating the effects of the changing climate.
- Our work provides a meaningful and practical way for managers to identify critical areas in which climate change may be disproportionately damaging.
- This proof-of-concept methodology can be used by researchers and managers and serve as a dynamic decision support tool for West Virginia managers that can also be applied in other states or broader regions.
Current Work: The Social Context of Vulnerability
While exploring the climate vulnerability of West Virginia's landscape, the research team recognized the critical importance of the often-overlooked social dimensions of climate vulnerability in shaping effective conservation strategies.
Conservation must account for the unique social and ecological contexts of each decision, recognizing that effective strategies require integrating social vulnerability and human well-being alongside ecological priorities.
Research Aims
Knowing which communities are most vulnerable from an ecological perspective and a social perspective is key in reorganizing conservation strategy.
By following this line of inquiry we want to know: how does our wtrSHEDS distribution of vulnerability change when we factor in indicators of social well-being?
Center for Disease Control Social Vulnerability
We are currently utilizing the CDC's Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) to understand social vulnerability across the state of West Virginia.
Breakdown of the indicators used within the Center for Disease Control (CDC) Social Vulnerability Index.
What does the SVI look like across WV?
Census-tract depiction of the CDC's Social Vulnerability Index.
Creating the Socio-Ecological Vulnerability Index
The next step will involve the creation of an index of Socio-Ecological vulnerability to climate that will combine the SVI with the wtrSHEDS climate vulnerability index.
Concept map for developing socio-ecological vulnerability in West Virginia.
