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The State of the Climate in Europe 2021

Earth’s climate system is complex. To simplify its complexity, the WMO uses seven climate indicators to observe Earth’s changing climate at global and regional levels and to understand how Earth’s climate is influenced by interactions involving the atmosphere, ocean, earth, clouds, ice, land and life. The State of the Climate in Europe 2021 offers a regional perspective of climate variability and its impacts on the European continent.

The Global Context

Before exploring the state of the climate in Europe, it is important to first know what the overall global climate looked like in 2021.

Atmospheric concentrations of the three major greenhouse gases (CO 2 , CH 4  and N 2 O) reached new record highs in 2020 and real-time data indicate that levels continued to increase in 2021. The global annual mean temperature in 2021 was around 1.11 ±0.13 °C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average, less warm than in some recent years owing to cooling La Niña conditions at the start and end of the year. Ocean heat content in 2021 was the highest on record. Ocean warming and accelerated loss of ice mass from the ice sheets contributed to global mean sea level rise, which also reached a record high in 2021. See more information on the  State of the Global Climate here .

What was the climate like in Europe in 2021?

Temperature Rise

The temperature close to Earth’s surface has large impacts on both human and non-human systems. It affects health, agriculture and energy demand, for example, as well as growth cycles of other organisms.

Temperatures over Europe have warmed significantly over the 1991-2021 period, at an average rate of about +0.5 °C per decade, making it the fastest warming region of all the WMO Regions.

The annual mean temperature in 2021 ranked between 6th and 10th highest on record, depending on the data set used.

Precipitation

Precipitation is one of the key climate parameters and, compared with temperature, is characterized by a high spatial and temporal variability.

Its lack can lead to droughts, while its excess can cause floods and/or high river discharges and soil moistures.

While precipitation in 2021 overall was slightly above normal in central and eastern Europe, it still was not enough to compensate from below normal precipitation from the previous three years.

In other areas, such as the Iberian Peninsula and the Alpine region, it was the second or third consecutive drier-than-normal year.

Cryosphere

The cryosphere covers all the parts of the Earth system where water is in solid form, including ice sheets, ice shelves, glaciers, snow cover, permafrost (frozen ground), sea ice, and river and lake ice, all of which can be found within Europe.

Sea ice extent

In September, the daily extent of the European Arctic reached record minima for the years covered by the satellite data record.

Average sea ice extent in the European Arctic sector in September 2021 was 37% below 1981-2010 average.

A significant contributor to these low values was the record low sea ice conditions in the Greenland Sea from July to September.

Glaciers and Ice Sheets

Glaciers and ice sheets gain mass through accumulation of snow and lose mass through surface melting -- via interactions with the atmosphere or at their frontal regions via interactions with lake or ocean water.

In Europe, glaciers have lost a volume of 821 billion m 3  of ice from 1997 to 2021, with glaciers in the Alps recording the largest ice losses over this period with a reduction in ice thickness of 30 m.

Meanwhile, in summer 2021, Greenland saw an unprecedented melt event, coincident with the first-ever recorded rainfall at Greenland‘s highest point, Summit station. Preliminary sources indicate the Greenland Ice Sheet continued to lose mass during the 2021 mass balance year.

Any change in the ice mass stored on land, such as when ice sheets and glaciers grow or shrink, has a direct impact on global mean sea level.

How much is sea level rising in Europe?

Since 1993, global mean sea level has increased at an average rate of 3.3 ± 0.4 mm/year.

This amounts to a total increase of about 9 cm between 1993 and 2021.

On a regional scale for Europe, most areas are increasing around 2–4 mm/year.

The Baltic Sea exhibits one of the highest sea level trends, at greater than 4 mm/year.

Change in mean sea level is an essential indicator of our evolving climate, as it reflects both the loss of mass from ice sheets and glaciers and thermal expansion due to warming ocean temperatures.

Ocean Heat Content

Around 90% of the excess energy that accumulates in the earth system due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, goes into the ocean.

Regional trends for the period 2005-2021 show ocean heat increase at rates up to more than 5 W/m2 in some specific regions, particularly in the Mediterranean Sea.

Other regions show a negative trend, at rates up to about -5 W/m, such as in the subpolar North Atlantic.

Sea Surface Temperature

While ocean heat content provides information about warming at depth, the sea surface is the boundary between the ocean and atmosphere.

Sea surface temperature (SST) can be used to understand the flows of energy between the ocean and atmosphere, and hence the role of the oceans in shaping the weather and climate and vice versa.

There has been an overall warming of all major ocean basins of the region during the industrial era, though the rate of warming differs.

In 2021, the average SST across the region was between the sixth and eighth warmest year on record, depending on the dataset. SSTs across the region were mostly near or warmer than the 1991–2020 reference period.

The most above average temperatures occurred in the central and eastern Mediterranean, the Baltic Sea, off the eastern coast of Greenland, as well as an area just west of the Iberian Peninsula and North Africa extending across the Atlantic.

Extreme Events

A variety of extreme and high impact events occurred in various parts of Europe in 2021.

Swipe to see a few key examples, or use the interactive legend on the map below to filter by event type and click on each event for more details.

Severe storms with strong winds

There were multiple severe thunderstorm outbreaks in western and central Europe in the second half of June and in July. An F4 tornado struck several villages in southern Moravia (Czech Republic) on 24 June, with major damage and six deaths reported. This was the strongest tornado on record in the Czech Republic.

Tornadoes were also reported during June in Belgium, France and Poland. Large hail (6–8 cm in diameter) was reported in several countries, including the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Switzerland and Germany.

Heavy precipitation and floods

Central Europe experienced some of its most severe flooding on record in mid-July. The worst-affected areas were western Germany and eastern Belgium, where 100 to 150 mm of rain fell over a wide area on 14–15 July onto ground which was already unusually wet after high recent rainfall.

Droughts

In winter 2020/2021, moderate drought conditions occurred south of the Gulf of Finland, mainly in Estonia and Latvia. Türkiye and the Middle East were affected by poor seasonal winter precipitation.

In summer, much of the western Mediterranean region experienced moderate, partly severe drought conditions in relation with several heat waves. In December, severe drought conditions developed in northeastern Spain and northern Italy.

Heatwaves

Heat waves have become more frequent and also more severe in Europe, with serious impact, specifically on health and mortality.

Several heat waves occurred in many parts of Europe in 2021, and a number of new local and national temperature records were measured. The most severe occurred from 21 July to 18 August 2010 in eastern Europe.

Wildfires

The drought conditions combined with the high temperatures during the heatwaves were conducive to the major wildfires that occurred across many parts of the Mediterranean region, with southern Türkiye, Italy and Greece especially badly affected.

On 13 August, more than 500 wildfires were burning across Italy.

Cold spells and snow

A severe snowstorm (Storm Filomena) hit many parts of Spain from 7 to 10 January, followed by a week of freezing air temperatures. A total of 53 cm of snow fell at the central city location of Retiro (Madrid), and heavy falls were also reported in many other parts of Spain.

Extreme Events in 2021 in Europe as reported by WMO Members.

Impacts

High impact weather and climate events led to hundreds of fatalities, directly affected around 510,000 people and caused economic damages exceeding US$ 50 billion. About 84% of the events were floods or storms.

Swipe to see some of the key impacts ->

Health

People's health in the WHO European Region is impacted by climate change in a myriad of ways, including by leading to death and illness from increasingly frequent extreme weather events (heatwaves), increases in zoonoses and food-, water- and vector-borne diseases, and mental health issues.

Agriculture

Climate change leads to economic impacts which translates into loss of livelihoods, reduced agriculture production and productivity, adverse effects on food availability and food access, incomes and loss of livelihoods, which can contribute to food insecurity as well as leads to hunger and malnutrition and food insecurity by extension.

Climate change is also changing the distribution, incidence and intensity of animal and plant pests and diseases.

In 2021, the Italian locust (CIT) hatching, and hopper development continued in Georgia, while CIT breeding continued in the Caucasus and the Russian Federation, while the Asian Migratory Locust (LMI) mating and egg-laying continued in the Russian Federation.

Displacements and migrations

In 2021, about 260,000 displacements were recorded, the highest number since start of data series in 2008 and more than three times the 2008-2020 average. Most of them were driven by weather-related disasters such as floods and wildfires.

European and Central Asian countries are places of transit and destination of diverse, significant international migration flows, originating from within the region, as well as from all other regions in the world.

According to UNDESA estimates, countries in the region host over 100 million international migrants, or 35 per cent of the world’s total. The locations in which many migrants live and transit are often particularly hazardous.

Transport

Climate variability and change has and will continue to have high impact on transport systems, both in terms of its assets (infrastructure) and operations. Transport assets are at risk to both incremental climate change and extreme events, particularly given that assets were constructed based on historic values for various weather phenomena thresholds

Climate Policy & Action

Although greenhouse gas emissions in the EU decreased by 31% between 1990 and 2020 — less the EU’s 2020 target by 11%, further implementation of impactful policies and measures will be important to bring the new 2030 target within reach.

Mitigation to climate change has already been a primary focus in the region as reflected in their  NDCs , highlighting energy supply, agriculture, waste, and land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) as top mitigation priorities.

The NDCs are also an important mechanism to protect children and youth from the impacts of climate change.

According to the UNICEF Children’s Climate Risk Index, nearly 125 million children in Europe live in countries with ‘medium to high’ risk countries.

This risk calls for action on making climate policy child and youth sensitive and mainstreaming DRR and climate change adaptation into primary and secondary school curricula and education legal frameworks. 

Efforts to address the health risks associated with climate change are also progressing slowly and insufficiently.

Transitioning to a zero-carbon economy could bring a range of near- and long-term health gains.

According to WHO, about 138 000 premature deaths could be avoided per year through reduced carbon emissions, potentially resulting in savings of US$ 244–564 billion.

Mitigation alone is not enough, adaptation to the worst impacts of climate change is also necessary.

Although 75% of people in Europe are covered by early warnings systems (EWS), several Members reported to have inadequate end-to-end riverine flood forecasting and end-to-end flash flood forecasting services.

This is a concern, considering that in the last 50 years 38% of the weather, water, and climate disasters were related to floods.

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© World Meteorological Organization, 2022

WMO uses datasets developed and maintained by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and the United Kingdom’s Met Office Hadley Centre and the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit in the United Kingdom.

It also uses reanalysis datasets from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts and its Copernicus Climate Change Service, and the Japan Meteorological Agency. This method combines millions of meteorological and marine observations, including from satellites, with models to produce a complete reanalysis of the atmosphere. The combination of observations with models makes it possible to estimate temperatures at any time and in any place across the globe, even in data-sparse areas such as the polar regions.

Internationally recognized datasets are used for all other key climate indicators. Full details are available in the State of the Climate in Europe report.

Data Visualization

Claire Ransom