Coastal Flooding

How coastal communities are being impacted by sea level rise and the data that can help

Flooded streets in front of the Chrysler Museum of Art in Norfolk, Virginia under bright, partly-cloudy skies.

If you drive through Norfolk, Virginia, you'll notice large vertical rulers sticking up out of the ground.

It is a strange sight for visitors, but for many residents it is becoming a part of daily life. These rulers are strategically placed in low lying areas to help residents deal with coastal flooding. They help drivers see if the water level is safe to plow through. Even on sunny days there can be standing water on the roads.

Sea level rise is rapidly increasing the number of these flood events throughout the year. For instance, the typical annual rate has doubled since 2000, from about 5 days to more than 10 days per year in 2018.

Bar chart tracking the yearly number of days Norfolk, Virginia experienced flooding since 1928. The numbers, while variable, and include spikes at about ten-year intervals since tracking began, have increased significantly since 2000. In 2018 Norfolk recorded 14 days of flooding.
Bar chart tracking the yearly number of days Norfolk, Virginia experienced flooding since 1928. The numbers, while variable, and include spikes at about ten-year intervals since tracking began, have increased significantly since 2000. In 2018 Norfolk recorded 14 days of flooding.

A low-lying section of a street is submerged and there is a measuring tool next to the street alerting drivers how deep the water is.
A low-lying section of a street is submerged and there is a measuring tool next to the street alerting drivers how deep the water is.

A "sunny day flood" in Norfolk, VA on May 9, 2020. Photo: George Mcleod


What is Coastal flooding?

At the most basic level, coastal flooding occurs when water reaches a level that begins to impact coastal infrastructure. Oceans are so vast (nearly 72% of the earth's surface) that the moon's gravitational pull moves the water, resulting in high and low tides.

Coastal flooding from the ocean (not from direct rainfall) generally occurs in response to a combination of three processes which include:

  • Storm Surge — the rise in seawater caused by a storm and associated winds.
  • Persistent winds and waves Flooding caused by offshore winds and repeated waves.

When combined, they worsen the effects on people living close to the coast. While coastal flooding is happening all over the world, some coastal communities are being impacted more than others.

Nearly 2.4 billion people (about 40% of the world’s population) live within 60 miles of the coast United Nations Oceans Report

1

Kiribati

It is predicted that millions of people living on low-lying islands in the Caribbean Sea and the Indian and Pacific Oceans will face displacement due to sea level rise and coastal flooding.

The entire Pacific island nation of Kiribati may relocate in the next decade due to sea level rise. This small Pacific island nation is trying to cope with contamination of freshwater reserves and food crops from coastal flooding.

2

New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

The city of New Orleans is located on the Mississippi river near the Gulf of Mexico.

In 2005, Hurricane Katrina hit the Louisiana coast, causing the water level to rise nearly 15 feet in some areas. This storm surge destroyed houses and infrastructure and caused billions of dollars of damage.

Photo: NOAA

3

Rotterdam, Netherlands

The Netherlands is particularly susceptible to coastal flooding because of its low elevation. They have developed innovative solutions including dikes, canals, sea walls, and water pump windmills (seen on the right) to manage their flooding risk.

The Netherlands has been sharing their knowledge with communities around the world to help them adapt to sea level rise.

Photo: Henk Monster, CC BY 3.0.

4

Bangladesh

Bangladesh is one of the most at-risk countries for flooding. Nearly half of the country is less than 30 feet above sea level. It has a massive coastline and experiences frequent tropical cyclones.

Photo:  B Islam 


What are the data telling us?

The Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS), a program office of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, has over 200 permanent long term coastal water level stations across the U.S that continuously monitor sea levels in real time.

They are an authoritative source for reliable and accurate data on water levels, currents, and other coastal oceanographic and meteorological information.

A car travels through a flooded, low area on a road

Sea level rise, caused by climate change and land-based ice melt, is increasing the volume of water in the ocean. NOAA works with other national agencies, state agencies, and universities to model sea level trends and project future rise around the world’s coastlines.

Based on this information they're able to show where the greatest changes in relative sea levels are occurring. On the map below, you'll notice the relative sea level trends in the eastern United States and locations in the South Pacific.

Sea Level Trends Coastal Flooding

NOAA reports sea level data in near real time so city residents and emergency responders can prepare for all types of coastal flooding.

The data collected by NOAA provide insight into how the number of flooding days are changing over time.

Cities like Norfolk, Virginia, are experiencing increased occurrences of flooding at high tide. Scientists call these events nuisance floods or “sunny day flooding.” The number of these floods has doubled since the year 2000. While they may seem minor, they cause inconvenient road closures, storm drain issues, and degrade infrastructure.

For many coastal dwellers, it is obvious that the flooding events are happening more and more frequently. But the long-term data collected by NOAA provides conclusive evidence of what is causing this—sea level rise.

U.S High Tide Flooding and Coastal Sea Levels

A combined bar chart and line graph showing the high tide flood days per year and the rise in coastal sea levels since 1920. The patterns for the line and bar charts are showing a general rise in sea level with occasional high spikes since 1920. The flood days are showing a patterns of more flood days per year since 1995.

Median high tide flood days per year (white bars in days/year) from 1920-2018. The annual-median rise in coastal sea levels is also shown (dotted line in centimeters). Data:  NOAA 

NOAA has predictive models to show how much sea level rise may occur in a specific area. They have six scenarios that differ based on how risk averse you are in your coastal management. This data is extremely valuable in assisting coastal communities in reducing their future vulnerability. 

Annual flood records are expected to be broken again next year and for years and decades to come from relative sea level rise. 2018 State of U.S. High Tide Flooding with a 2019 Outlook, NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS

Based on an intermediate risk averse model, NOAA predicts that by 2040 Norfolk Virginia will experience a sea level rise of approximately 1.3 feet.

The areas in blue are places that will likely experience flooding due to sea level rise. The areas in green are low elevation areas.


How the data are helping communities prepare

Sea level rise may seem gradual and unpredictable, but the data shows us where it is happening now.

The Commonwealth of Virginia is proactively taking steps to manage and protect their vulnerable coastal regions. Using data provided by NOAA, they have modeled coastal flooding to identify infrastructure that will be particularly vulnerable in the future.

NOAA data and expertise have been critical to our work in modeling fine-scale coastal flooding impacts, identifying potential vulnerabilities, and developing resilience strategies for the Commonwealth of Virginia. George McLeod, Senior Fellow, Commonwealth Center for Recurrent Flooding Resiliency, Old Dominion University

The Virginia coast has many low-lying areas that will look very different in the future given sea level rise projections. Let's see how this will impact the city of Norfolk.

Norfolk, Virginia, USA

Here's a high resolution satellite map of downtown Norfolk, Virginia. Norfolk is a vibrant waterfront city that is home to the world’s largest naval base and the deepest commercial seaport on the East Coast.

If you look closely along the shoreline you can see Harbor Park baseball field, an Amtrak Station, Chrysler Museum of Art, and Sentara Norfolk General Hospital, and many other important community features.

NOAA Innundation Data

Now let's add NOAA's high resolution inundation data to see how the city would be impacted by a 3-foot sea level rise.

Under NOAA’s Intermediate Low and Intermediate Sea Level Rise Scenarios, which are considered a range likely to occur this century, local relative sea level is projected to rise between about 2.25-4.5 feet.

Researchers at Old Dominion University have taken the NOAA data one step further to identify what infrastructure that will be most affected based on this model for 2040, 2060, and 2080 as sea level continues to rise.

A zoomed-out perspective of the cover image showing the streets near the Chrysler Museum of Art under water.

This photo of the Chrysler Museum of Art shows present day high-tide flooding. This is a glimpse at what will become more and more common due to sea level rise. Photo: George McLeod

2040 Sea Level Rise

By highlighting potential future vulnerability, these data allow city planners to focus more intently and triage areas that may be most at risk.

Red represents buildings and roadways at highest risk (below the high tide line) followed by orange (impacted by tidal flooding events) and yellow (impacted by moderate flooding events).

2060 Sea Level Rise

By the year 2060, we see that the number of structures at least partially below the high tide line has significantly increased and that most of downtown Norfolk is impacted by some form of flooding.

2080 Sea Level Rise

By 2080, the high tide line has migrated dramatically landward and much of Norfolk is now permanently under water.

The new shoreline shown in this map reveals the presence of historic creek beds that were once infilled for development and urbanization. 

As sea level rises, water will naturally return to the areas of lower elevation found in the locations of these former wetlands. 

Virginia 2040 Sea Level Rise

Future flood impacts analysis has been done for the entire coastal zone of Virginia. It's sobering to see what is predicted to happen to coastal communities in the next 20 to 60 years—particularly because these data are based on the NOAA’s comparatively conservative intermediate-high sea level scenario, rather than the High or Extreme scenarios.

Explore the map to see how other coastal communities in Virginia will be impacted in the next 20 years based on this model.

Click on the places below:

    What can we do?

    Relative sea level rise is increasing. The uncertainty of resilience in Norfolk, VA communities is one shared by coastal communities across the globe. Without proper preparation, citizens face millions of dollars in infrastructure damage, community displacement, and property loss.

    Luckily, we have data to support informed adaptation and coastal resilience. The more we collaborate, the wider the net of understanding is cast--ensuring community prosperity for generations to come

    Use the resources below to see how coastal flooding will impact your community.

    The Commonwealth of Virginia has a responsibility to adapt and prepare Coastal Virginia for the increasing impact of rising waters, to ensure our efforts are informed by the best possible scientific data, and to get that data into the hands of communities, localities, and regions as we collectively make decisions for our future. Our situation is urgent - we have no time to waste. Rear Adm. Ann Phillips (USN Ret.), Special Assistant to the Governor for Coastal Adaptation and Protection.


    Explore these resources on coastal flooding

    "The charts, maps, and visualizations in this story map provide snapshots of our current scientifically understood situation and give a peek into the future, which can be difficult to imagine. Yet, these complex challenges provide opportunities to discover solutions, tackle flooding, sustain environmental quality, and spur the growth of new jobs, careers, and communities that adapt and flourish." Dr. Tom Allen, Program Head for Sea Level Rise and Climate Science, Institute for Coastal Adaptation & Resilience (ODU)

    About this story

    This story map was created in collaboration with NOAA National Ocean Service (NOS), Old Dominion University, and Esri. Special thanks to the NOAA CO-OPS division and George McLeod from Old Dominion University for providing data and expert knowledge on the subject.

    Data

    NOAA CO-OPS, Old Dominion University

    Story

    Esri's StoryMaps team, Esri's Living Atlas Team

    Cover Photo

    George McLeod, Old Dominion University

    A "sunny day flood" in Norfolk, VA on May 9, 2020. Photo: George Mcleod

    Median high tide flood days per year (white bars in days/year) from 1920-2018. The annual-median rise in coastal sea levels is also shown (dotted line in centimeters). Data:  NOAA 

    This photo of the Chrysler Museum of Art shows present day high-tide flooding. This is a glimpse at what will become more and more common due to sea level rise. Photo: George McLeod