Coastal Inundation

Several communities on North Carolina’s Albemarle-Pamlico Peninsula have relatively high African American populations. Despite their flood-prone location, many communities have not received outreach efforts to share climate change information or sea-level rise projections. Researchers recognized the need to extend current planning efforts to minority coastal communities in the region and set out to improve the inclusivity of coastal adaptation engagement. 

The project scientists chose to use the existing  Rural Coastal Community Resilience (RCCR)  framework, and they improved it by including a climate justice component. The team organized multiple focus groups and workshops with residents and planners to raise awareness of the potential hazards of inundation and then worked through the resilience framework with local stakeholders to explore flood management information and adaptation tools.

However, through the engagement, the team documented perceptions of barriers to adaptation, lack of inclusion in local government planning processes, disproportionate flooding impacts, and recovery programs that are not tailored to the local socio-economic context. 

This research highlights the need to not only consider the unique coastal hazard context of minority coastal communities, but also the importance of tailoring adaptation outreach to the audience.

While some coastal communities can receive climate change information and begin to brainstorm adaptation ideas, historically marginalized communities will likely have to address the present climate (in)justice issues that limit adaptation before planning for the future. Research resulting from this project contributed to two important papers focusing on  climate (in)justice  and on  policy considerations  for coastal zone management.

The Carolinas Integrated Sciences & Assessments ( CISA ) team performed this work. CISA is one of NOAA’s 11 Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments ( RISA ) teams. These teams work to increase climate resilience through relevant climate research and partnerships across government, non-governmental organizations, and the private sector. CISA is focused on climate research in the Carolinas.

The U.S. Northeast coastline is a unique region that is affected by global sea-level rise as well as local and regional inundation caused by natural patterns such as hurricanes and the circulation of the Atlantic Ocean. The Northeast is also a region of high population and a major business and industrial center of the U.S.

The research project, Advanced Regional and Decadal Predictions of Coastal Inundation for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, supported a hypothesis that future inundation of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts will depend on both sea-level rise and the intensity or frequency of tropical cyclones, each of which will be affected by climate change.

Sea-level is influenced by regional geographic disparities and will range in different locations. Storm surge is a phenomenon associated with tropical cyclones and hurricanes. Increasing the frequency of tropical cyclone events can increase storm surge events, and therefore spurring long term coastal inundation.

This multi-year project produced numerous research papers as well as a  series of workshops  that focused on “Sea-Level Rise Science and Planning Needs.” The workshops focused on discussing 50-100 year timeline sea-level rise predictions. Researchers specifically looked at the past sea-level rise in Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, North Carolina, and Florida. The rapid rates of sea-level rise in these locations from the last few decades show the departure from Holocene trends of sea-level change.

In addition to the inundation caused by storms, the circulation of the Atlantic Ocean plays a role. By studying the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation ( AMOC ), a system of deep currents in the Atlantic ocean, researchers were able to reconstruct past sea-level rise conditions and make predictions to what is most heavily influencing current sea-level rise. In the project called, Signature of the AMOC in the North Atlantic Dynamic Sea Level, they found that the slowdown of the AMOC during 2009-2010 was also an important factor in causing the pronounced coastal sea-level spike in 2009-2010 north of New York City.

Both projects suggest that global projections for future sea-level rise will continue to have uncertainties. This uncertainty is mainly due to incomplete understanding of complex processes and feedback mechanisms that cause sea-level to rise. 

These projects were funded by CPO’s  Climate Variability and Predictability (CVP) Program . This program supports research that enhances understanding of the climate system through observation, modeling, analysis, and field studies. 

This project is an example of scientific research funded by CPO that links oceanographic and meteorological phenomena with impacts of climate change. 

As global sea-level continues to rise, coastal communities are increasingly concerned about coastal flooding. However, long term sea-level rise is only one of the many factors that leads to coastal flooding. As one example, scientists wanted to understand what led to unexplained periods of high sea-level—commonly called blue-sky flooding—that occurred without obvious causes. 

Researchers working to understand this phenomenon evaluated the relationship between atmospheric circulation patterns and coastal sea-level recorded at tidal gauges in the contiguous United States from 1979-2016. The scientists found a distinct connection between certain atmospheric conditions and blue-sky flooding. They identified that atmospheric conditions including sea-level pressure, 10-m wind speed, 850-Mb temperature, and 700-Mb geopotential height can be used to model anomalously high sea-levels. The researchers plan to apply these findings to improve forecasts for blue-sky flooding.

This  project  was funded by CPO’s Modeling, Analysis, Prediction, and Projections Program ( MAPP ). MAPP manages five current  task forces  that organize research to support collaboration and enhance NOAA services. 

Principal Investigator Scott Sheridan is a member of the  Model Diagnostics Task Force , which supports research on model evaluation metrics. 

Over time, low-lying neighborhoods in New York City are seeing an increase in the number of nuisance floods they experience per year. One area experiencing these floods is Jamaica Bay. Historic dredging projects, filling of former wetlands to create additional land for development, and rising sea-levels have left the neighborhood vulnerable to nuisance flooding. 

NOAA’s Climate Program Office supports several research projects to build resiliency to inundation in New York City. An initial project found that geomorphic changes in the region  amplified  the climatic drivers of coastal flood risk in the region. In research  published  for the New York City Panel on Climate Change, the 100- year floodplain was updated to show potential sea-level rise flooding each decade through the 21st century. 

The analysis found that monthly flooding is projected to become a rampant problem across New York City by the 2050s or shortly thereafter. Neighborhoods surrounding Jamaica Bay will be among the first to be affected. Project partners produced a series of infographics to raise awareness about the potential for coastal flooding in areas including Coney Island, Rockaway Inlet, Jamaica Bay, and Rockaway Peninsula. This information will support further policy level planning for New York City. 

Helping turn the tide, and moving Jamaica Bay neighborhoods towards resilience is the  Jamaica Bay Community Flood Watch Project . This outreach project was developed by the Science and Resilience Institute at Jamaica Bay and New York Sea Grant (NYSG). This includes community workshops to address the needs for local specific information surrounding coastal flooding. Additionally, Flood Watch established a citizen science program to maintain a database to report local flooding from community members. 

Lastly, this series of projects also supported the development of two online tools that help enable people to understand flood risks and prepare for a possible flood. The first is an  operational forecasting system , where funding supported improvements to the  models  behind the forecasts, improving forecast accuracy. The forecasts are widely-used and enable community members to prepare for possible nuisance flood events or storms. The second tool is  AdaptMap , as seen on the right, which is an interactive tool that displays how flooding events will increase due to long-term sea-level rise, and how they can be reduced with a large-scale adaptation of the landscape. For more information on the background of AdaptMap, please click  here . To access an interactive version of the map on the right, please visit the link below.

This project was supported by CPO’s Coastal Inundation and Ocean Climate Applications ( COCA ) program as the Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast ( CCRUN ).

Other organizations such as the National Science Foundation, United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Climate Preparedness and Resilience Program, New York City Department of City Planning contributed to this large series of projects

The City of Folly Beach is a small community on a barrier island in South Carolina. This community is susceptible to coastal inundation due to storm surge and long-term sea-level rise. NOAA tide gauges have already recorded a 12-inch sea-level rise since the installation of the gauges in 1921.

Folly Beach currently sees community flooding events due to high tides that inundate low-lying neighborhood streets. Long-term sea-level rise could permanently inundate a portion of this community. 

A  report  supported by Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments team ( CISA ) and the  South Carolina Sea Grant Consortium  recommended that the City of Folly Beach should implement resilience plans to prepare for up to 3 feet of sea-level rise in the next 50 years. This report included a vulnerability assessment as well as recommendations to implement a Drainage Management Plan, a Septic Vulnerability Assessment, and a Marshfront Management Plan. The Sea Level Rise Adaptation Report followed a resiliency framework based on the Vulnerability, Consequences, and Adaptation Planning Scenario process ( VCAPS ). The report also strongly recommended a vast outreach and education component.

Sea Grant and CISA researchers then organized multiple public presentations to the City planning commission and city council to discuss future inundation hazards highlighted in the above report. 

Following this series of engagement events, the City council formally adopted multiple recommendations found in the report. A 6-month waterfront building moratorium followed while necessary ordinances in relation to sea-level rise resilience were established. This included establishing nearly 15 ordinances that addressed factors such as building codes, and setbacks based on sea-level rise projections. These changes will improve resilience in the community over time as new builds will incorporate flood resilience in their planning. A detailed  Marshfront Management Plan.  was also published. 

This project is a great example of how NOAA funded researchers engage with local municipalities and provide resources to allow for better resiliency planning and climate adaptation. 

The Folly Beach inundation project was supported by CPO’s Coastal Inundation and Ocean Climate Applications ( COCA ) program as well as  South Carolina Sea Grant Consortium  and the Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments program ( CISA ).

NOAA's Sea Level Rise Viewer (shown on the right) displays projected 3 feet of sea level rise on the Folly Beach community. Below is the legend for the sea level rise viewer.

For more information on adaptation planning supported by CISA, please view the following  video .