The Value of Northern Virginia Transit to the Commonwealth
How Investments in Northern Virginia’s Transit Deliver $1.5 Billion in Statewide Benefits Annually
History of Northern Virginia Transit
Scroll through to see the history of rail transit in Northern Virginia and how it influenced people's choices on where to live and how to travel.
For over 50 years, the existence of high-quality, reliable transit has shaped development patterns in Northern Virginia.
1977 Blue Line Rosslyn to National Airport
With the opening today of its 12-mile long Blue Line from National Airport to RFK Stadium, Washington’s Metro subway grows from a downtown demonstration line into the spine of a regional transportation system that could rival the Capital Beltway in its effect on Washington.
1979 Orange Line to Ballston
Our suburban development strategy has been driven to a great extent by Metrorail. Were it not for Metro, we would not have ventured […] into the King Street and Ballston areas.
Oliver T. Carr, Jr., President of Oliver T. Carr Co. (as told to NVTC in 1985)
1983 Yellow Line to Huntington
We would not have developed the Montebello community of over 1,000 units on Route 1 without the Huntington Metro station being adjacent to it.
Giuseppe Cecchi, President of IDI ( as told to NVTC in 1985 )
1986 Orange Line to Vienna
What has drawn an unexpected number of commuters to the new rail stops arrayed along Rte. I-66 at East and West Falls Church, Dunn Loring and Vienna? […] ‘See the traffic?’, pointing to heavily congested Rte. I-66. ‘I don't enjoy driving.’
1991 Blue Line to Van Dorn
"I've been living here for three years and I've been waiting for three years for this to open," Smith said yesterday, adding that she hopes to shave 40 minutes off her daily commute.
1992 Virginia Railway Express
"City folk" got jobs, bought houses and became stuck in traffic so often that people began looking for alternatives to go to and from work. That led to the creation of the Virginia Railway Express.
1997 Blue Line to Franconia-Springfield
The modern concrete-and-glass transportation center […] is expected not only to pump new economic blood into the area but also to relieve the aggravating gridlock that daily grinds along nearby I-95 as it feeds into the Capital Beltway or Shirley Highway toward Washington.
2014 Silver Line to Wiehle-Reston
Before Saturday, Darlene Smith hadn't ever visited the Tysons Corner Center mall. “I never drove out here because it’s too much traffic.”
2022 Silver Line to Ashburn
The transportation benefits were only part of the Silver Line’s allure. Planners, developers and multiple studies indicated it would lead to an economic boom.
2023 Potomac Yard Station
“The coming of the Metro has created a lot of demand for a lot of commercial development in Potomac Yard,” Alexandria Mayor Justin Wilson tells Axios. “This ties in … with Crystal City and what's happening with Amazon there.”
Value of Transit to the Commonwealth
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Northern Virginia’s transit has had a huge impact on property values and development in the region. For the Commonwealth of Virginia, however, the key fiscal benefits come from personal income and sales tax revenue that flow from Northern Virginia to Richmond. This General Fund revenue can be used for programs and services across the state.
Northern Virginia’s transit network generates $1.5 billion annually in personal income and sales tax revenue for the Commonwealth of Virginia 1 . The revenue makes up nearly 5% of the Virginia general fund, supporting programs and services across the Commonwealth.
Every dollar Virginia invests in transit in Northern Virginia generates an additional $1.60 in statewide revenue, a 160% return on investment.
1 In a 2025 scenario, with dollar amounts indexed to 2021.
Traffic Impacts
Without transit, there would be more traffic throughout the region due to an additional 278,000 trips on our roadways each day.
Morning Peak Destinations
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Without transit, the traffic would be most severe in areas inside the Beltway and on bridges crossing into DC and Maryland. This map shows the increase in vehicle trips to locations in Northern Virginia during the morning commute period.
Trips that previously would have been completed with transit now must happen by car. For example, this traffic analysis zone (TAZ) highlighted in purple contains the Pentagon. Without the Pentagon Metro Station and Bus Station serving commuters, there would be a 42% increase in vehicle trips ending here during the morning commute.
If you’re traveling along I-395 via the 14 th Street Bridge, you could expect to share the road with an additional 37,000 vehicles over the course of the day. That’s about double the number of metered on-street parking spaces in DC. The 20% increase in traffic would make this key connection into DC less reliable, causing delays in travel for medical appointments, job interviews and deliveries.
This situation would be repeated across every bridge in the region, affecting bridge crossings along I-495 and I-95 as well as those into downtown Washington. The impacts would be felt across the Greater Washington region and for any vehicle traveling in the Mid-Atlantic via our interstates.
Employment and Housing Impacts
To measure the value of Northern Virginia’s transit, NVTC calculated how many jobs and households need to be removed from the regional transportation model for traffic to return to normal congestion levels that exist with transit.
Employment Loss
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Transit directly impacts 157,000 jobs in Northern Virginia. In other words, 157,000 jobs in Northern Virginia would be lost without transit. The map emphasizes how the areas with the most job loss are those that densely developed based on their proximity to transit.
76% of these jobs are within a ½ mile of a Metro station.
The employment impact to the region is then intensified due to indirect and induced employment impacts. Transit in Northern Virginia supports 311,000 jobs, 40,000 of which are actually in other parts of the Commonwealth. The people with those 311,000 jobs have $23 billion in earnings that contribute to a majority of the $1.5 billion in state tax revenue from transit.
Household Loss
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The number of households in Northern Virginia would also need to be reduced. 128,000 households, or about 13% of households in Northern Virginia, would be lost if transit did not exist. The distribution of household loss spreads out across the region compared to jobs, demonstrating that even people who live farther away from transit access it using park and rides or otherwise benefit from the existence of the service in their communities.
However, areas closest to transit would experience the greatest reductions in households. For example, the Rosslyn neighborhood in Arlington would need to reduce households by more than 40% if transit did not exist (as shown in the three TAZs highlighted in orange).
Local Impacts
Scroll to explore individual jurisdictional impacts.
